Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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846
FXUS64 KMAF 131744
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1144 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to cancel the Winter Weather Advisory and High Wind Warning
in the Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop/spread northward over
the Permian Basin under difluent flow aloft ahead of a cutoff low
over northern Mexico.  Isentropic upglide indicated on the 13/12Z
MAF sounding is resulting in modest elevated instability and
scattered thunderstorm development, which are producing perhaps
0.25-0.5" as they move north near 50 mph.  Expect additional showers
and thunderstorms to develop over the forecast area, but mainly
eastern portions.

Farther west, precipitation will be possible today and tonight too,
but it may be more sporadic and have less areal coverage.  As far as
wintry precipitation goes, most locations are above freezing, and it
appears they will stay that way.  The exception is the Guadalupe
Mountains, and higher elevations of the Davis Mountains.  Had a
report of sleet and freezing rain accumulation that occurred
overnight in the Guadalupe Mountains, but precipitation ended near
Queen by 13/15Z.  Think the Guadalupes could see some more light
precipitation through the afternoon, but temperatures are creeping
up to freezing, and expect they will rise above freezing during
the afternoon.  Considering this will expire the Winter Weather
Advisory there.  In addition, will cancel the rest of the High
Wind Warning for Guadalupe Pass as sustained winds will likely
decrease more this afternoon.  There may be additional wintry
precipitation in the Guadalupe Mountains tonight as the cutoff low
moves over the region and cools the temperatures profile.
Precipitation will be rain or snow this afternoon, then all snow
tonight, over the Guadalupes, but since amounts of an inch or less
appear most likely, will probably not reissue a Winter Weather
Advisory.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of rain and occasional thunderstorms will continue across the
area through the TAF period.  Low ceilings will persist through this
time mostly ranging between MVFR and IFR with some periods of VFR.
Winds will be light out of the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  37  45  34 /  80  80  50   0
Carlsbad                       40  36  50  31 /  70  60  20   0
Dryden                         52  42  62  40 /  70  80  10   0
Fort Stockton                  43  37  49  34 /  60  70  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  27  44  31 /  60  50  20   0
Hobbs                          37  34  45  30 /  80  70  40   0
Marfa                          47  32  52  27 /  50  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           42  36  46  34 /  70  80  30   0
Odessa                         42  36  46  33 /  60  80  30   0
Wink                           44  38  50  32 /  60  60  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 1 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/

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