Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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388
FXUS64 KMAF 250507
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hour, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Light southerly winds overnight will
increase from the west to 15-18kt sustained and gusting to 25-30kt
during the afternoon. A strong cold front will arrive around 26/03Z
at CNM, HOB, INK and MAF then FST and PEQ just beyond this TAF
period. Behind the front, expect north winds near 20-25kt sustained
and gusts near 30-35kt. Low visibilities due to BLDU is definitely
possible but will hold off on mention in the TAF for now.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow aloft will continue through tomorrow resulting in
continued much above normal temperatures. Dryline will surge east
from the eastern slopes of the mountains to the Concho Valley and
Big Country by late tomorrow afternoon. Behind the dryline breezy
westerly winds will develop in areas with very windy conditions
expected in the Guadalupe Mountains. Low level thermal ridging and
downslope flow will allow temperatures to climb to much above
normal Wednesday afternoon. Large upper level trough moving across
the mid section of the country will drop a cold front south into
the forecast area Wednesday night. Low level convergence along the
front with some forcing from the upper trough could spark isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the extreme eastern Permian Basin
in the deeper moisture. Strong surface pressure gradient behind
the front will produce very windy conditions with high winds
possible through Guadalupe Pass. Will issue a High Wind Watch for
that location Wednesday night through mid Thursday morning. In
addition a wind advisory may be needed for portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and or west Texas. Have also added patchy
blowing dust for areas mainly north of the Pecos River.

Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool
Thursday high temperatures will climb to above normal again
by Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope
flow and mostly clear skies expected.

A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected
at this time next Monday and Tuesday. Above normal temperatures
are also expected to continue.

FIRE WEATHER...

Unseasonably warm temperatures expected again Wednesday will result
in minimum rh values of 15 percent or less across SE NM and most of
W TX.  Much of this area received beneficial rain the past week
lowering the fire danger... but not much fell across Eddy and
Culberson counties.  The wind will be out of the west tomorrow
and 20ft wind speeds are expected to be higher with some locations
reaching the 15 to 20 mph range.  This will result in elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions... especially for the
Guadalupe Mountains... Delaware Mountains... and surrounding plains.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

27

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