Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 201744

1244 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014



Expect afternoon storms to fire up across the higher elevations...
most will be west of TAF locations except could see a few near FST
or CNM.  Otherwise gusty southerly wind during the afternoon
should drop off but not die out after sunset.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/


An upper low continues to drop south along the CA coast this morning
while a large upper ridge encompasses most of the Gulf Coast region.
In between these two systems a subtropical moisture plume is present
over far West Texas and NM. This brought showers and thunderstorms
to these areas yesterday and is expected to do so again the rest of
the week. Locations that have the best chance of rain will shift
each day as the strength of the upper high fluctuates. The best
chance for storms today will remain across the west with only
isolated convection expected over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. There is a potential for heavy rain over the Davis Mountains
and adjacent areas where precipitable water values are near 1.5".

Models continue to struggle with the strength of the upper high and
whether it will be strong enough to deflect West Coast trough. Will
continue to keep the best chances for convection over SE NM down to
the Big Bend through the end of the week. PoPs may need to be
expanded east in subsequent forecasts if the ridge is indeed weaker.
Currently do not see any well defined shortwaves to affect the CWA
nor do the models suggest it so will hold off on any Flash Flood
Watch and keep mention of heavy rain in the HWO.

Temperatures will remain near to just above normal except across
western areas where clouds and rain are expected. By early next
week a rather deep upper trough will dig into the Western U.S. This
may help to weaken the ridge and allow better rain chances with
slightly cooler temps.





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