Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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681
FXUS64 KMAF 252305
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Persistence rules with VFR conditions likely prevailing. A few
storms have developed in the higher terrain and may get close to
KPEQ and KFST before diminishing this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the
upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and forecast to remain
anchored in place over the next week.  The TUTT is now centered SE
of the Big Bend Area...further east than all the models depict.
Precip on the eastern side of the TUTT is way out in central Texas,
and w/the TUTT forecast to curve NE into central Texas over the next
couple of days, it appears this feature will yield little in the way
of precipitation for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Instead,
favored areas will remain over the western mtns in upslope return
flow.  Thus, higher POPs will remain over the western half of the FA.

Over the next few days, the TUTT is forecast to arc into central
Texas, then dive south deep into Mexico.  Although little rain is
expected from this, increased cloud cover and decreased thicknesses
should keep temps at or below normal thru midweek.  As the TUTT
moves further south, the upper ridge will shift to the 4 Corners,
allowing the thermal ridge to strengthen.  This will allow temps to
climb above-normal Thursday onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  90  69  93 /  10  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       72  97  70  94 /  10  30  30  20
Dryden                         75  96  74  93 /  20  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  73  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 65  88  65  86 /  20  30  30  30
Hobbs                          70  91  66  91 /  10  30  30  20
Marfa                          64  88  62  87 /  30  40  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           74  92  70  94 /  10  20  20  10
Odessa                         74  93  71  94 /  10  20  20  20
Wink                           74  95  71  95 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
860
FXUS64 KMAF 251945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the
upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and forecast to remain
anchored in place over the next week.  The TUTT is now centered SE
of the Big Bend Area...further east than all the models depict.
Precip on the eastern side of the TUTT is way out in central Texas,
and w/the TUTT forecast to curve NE into central Texas over the next
couple of days, it appears this feature will yield little in the way
of precipitation for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Instead,
favored areas will remain over the western mtns in upslope return
flow.  Thus, higher POPs will remain over the western half of the FA.

Over the next few days, the TUTT is forecast to arc into central
Texas, then dive south deep into Mexico.  Although little rain is
expected from this, increased cloud cover and decreased thicknesses
should keep temps at or below normal thru midweek.  As the TUTT
moves further south, the upper ridge will shift to the 4 Corners,
allowing the thermal ridge to strengthen.  This will allow temps to
climb above-normal Thursday onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  90  69  93 /  10  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       72  97  70  94 /  10  30  30  20
Dryden                         75  96  74  93 /  20  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  73  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 65  88  65  86 /  20  30  30  30
Hobbs                          70  91  66  91 /  10  30  30  20
Marfa                          64  88  62  87 /  30  40  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           74  92  70  94 /  10  20  20  10
Odessa                         74  93  71  94 /  10  20  20  20
Wink                           74  95  71  95 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/44
303
FXUS64 KMAF 251945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the
upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and forecast to remain
anchored in place over the next week.  The TUTT is now centered SE
of the Big Bend Area...further east than all the models depict.
Precip on the eastern side of the TUTT is way out in central Texas,
and w/the TUTT forecast to curve NE into central Texas over the next
couple of days, it appears this feature will yield little in the way
of precipitation for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Instead,
favored areas will remain over the western mtns in upslope return
flow.  Thus, higher POPs will remain over the western half of the FA.

Over the next few days, the TUTT is forecast to arc into central
Texas, then dive south deep into Mexico.  Although little rain is
expected from this, increased cloud cover and decreased thicknesses
should keep temps at or below normal thru midweek.  As the TUTT
moves further south, the upper ridge will shift to the 4 Corners,
allowing the thermal ridge to strengthen.  This will allow temps to
climb above-normal Thursday onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  90  69  93 /  10  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       72  97  70  94 /  10  30  30  20
Dryden                         75  96  74  93 /  20  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  73  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 65  88  65  86 /  20  30  30  30
Hobbs                          70  91  66  91 /  10  30  30  20
Marfa                          64  88  62  87 /  30  40  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           74  92  70  94 /  10  20  20  10
Odessa                         74  93  71  94 /  10  20  20  20
Wink                           74  95  71  95 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/44
138
FXUS64 KMAF 251726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...

Please see the 25/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all area terminals
through 26/18Z. A few models are suggesting MVFR cigs developing
at KMAF and KFST in the 26/12-15Z time range, but will not include
at this time as confidence is around 1:5 that this will occur.
Otherwise look for gusty SE winds to persist through the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Gusty SE winds expected through much of
the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge centered over the Gulf coast stretches from the
Atlantic to the Pacific.  The center of this ridge will slowly drift
west becoming centered over the 4 corners region by Monday where it
will remain most of the week.

Temps were a little cooler yesterday as 850mb temps cooled... even
though Rio Grande village reached 108... expect near to a little
cooler again today.  Highs should be below normal Sunday through
Tuesday then increase through the end of the week as the ridge
returns.

A persistent S/SE surface flow will continue to pull moisture into
the region.  Rain chances pick up this weekend as a low wanders up
from Mexico with the best chance looking to be Sunday and Sunday
night.  In addition upslope flow should be enough to generate storms
over the Davis Mtns this afternoon/evening so have bumped up pops.
Rain chances decrease through the week as temperatures increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  71  91  71 /  10  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       97  70  94  70 /  10  10  30  30
Dryden                         96  73  93  72 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  94  70  90  70 /  10  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 93  65  84  64 /  20  20  30  30
Hobbs                          92  68  89  67 /  10  10  30  30
Marfa                          90  61  86  60 /  30  30  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           94  70  92  70 /  10  10  20  20
Odessa                         94  69  91  69 /  10  10  20  20
Wink                           97  71  94  71 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/44
908
FXUS64 KMAF 251116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Gusty SE winds expected through much of
the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge centered over the Gulf coast stretches from the
Atlantic to the Pacific.  The center of this ridge will slowly drift
west becoming centered over the 4 corners region by Monday where it
will remain most of the week.

Temps were a little cooler yesterday as 850mb temps cooled... even
though Rio Grande village reached 108... expect near to a little
cooler again today.  Highs should be below normal Sunday through
Tuesday then increase through the end of the week as the ridge
returns.

A persistent S/SE surface flow will continue to pull moisture into
the region.  Rain chances pick up this weekend as a low wanders up
from Mexico with the best chance looking to be Sunday and Sunday
night.  In addition upslope flow should be enough to generate storms
over the Davis Mtns this afternoon/evening so have bumped up pops.
Rain chances decrease through the week as temperatures increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  71  91  71 /  10  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       97  70  94  70 /  10  10  30  30
Dryden                         96  73  93  72 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  94  70  90  70 /  10  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 93  65  84  64 /  20  20  30  30
Hobbs                          92  68  89  67 /  10  10  30  30
Marfa                          90  61  86  60 /  30  30  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           94  70  92  70 /  10  10  20  20
Odessa                         94  69  91  69 /  10  10  20  20
Wink                           97  71  94  71 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
236
FXUS64 KMAF 250850
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
350 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge centered over the Gulf coast stretches from the
Atlantic to the Pacific.  The center of this ridge will slowly drift
west becoming centered over the 4 corners region by Monday where it
will remain most of the week.

Temps were a little cooler yesterday as 850mb temps cooled... even
though Rio Grande village reached 108... expect near to a little
cooler again today.  Highs should be below normal Sunday through
Tuesday then increase through the end of the week as the ridge
returns.

A persistent S/SE surface flow will continue to pull moisture into
the region.  Rain chances pick up this weekend as a low wanders up
from Mexico with the best chance looking to be Sunday and Sunday
night.  In addition upslope flow should be enough to generate storms
over the Davis Mtns this afternoon/evening so have bumped up pops.
Rain chances decrease through the week as temperatures increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  71  91  71 /  10  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       97  70  94  70 /  10  10  30  30
Dryden                         96  73  93  72 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  94  70  90  70 /  10  20  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 93  65  84  64 /  20  20  30  30
Hobbs                          92  68  89  67 /  10  10  30  30
Marfa                          90  61  86  60 /  30  30  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           94  70  92  70 /  10  10  20  20
Odessa                         94  69  91  69 /  10  10  20  20
Wink                           97  71  94  71 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
106
FXUS64 KMAF 250521
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. SE winds 10-12kt sustained overnight
then gusts return by mid/late morning.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and
forecast to move very little over the next week.  However, an upper
trough/TUTT churning SW of Laredo may bring a little relief to West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico in the short term.  This feature is
forecast to curve northward over the next 24 hours, and enter the
Big Bend Area by Saturday afternoon.  It is then forecast to move
north thru the Permian Basin and then back towards central Texas
next week.  This should generally promote an increase in cloud
cover, and keep temperatures near normal into next week.  Best
precip chances should be on the eastern side of the trough,
especially Sunday/Sunday night, but equally decent chances will
remain over the western mtns in upslope flow each day.  However,
these upper troughs can be disappointing, so we`ll keep POPs at a
chance at best attm.

Otherwise, the upper ridge will center over the Gulf Coast states
for the first part of the forecast, then shift back to the Four
Corners next week w/the demise of the upper trough.  This will allow
for a warming trend in the extended, back to above-normal by
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74  93  71  91 /  10  30  30  20
Carlsbad                       72  96  70  91 /  10  30  30  30
Dryden                         73  95  72  93 /  10  30  30  20
Fort Stockton                  72  92  70  91 /  10  30  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 67  88  64  83 /  20  30  30  30
Hobbs                          71  91  67  88 /  10  30  30  30
Marfa                          63  88  62  84 /  20  40  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           73  94  70  92 /  10  30  30  20
Odessa                         72  93  69  91 /  10  30  30  20
Wink                           74  96  70  93 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
299
FXUS64 KMAF 242310
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and
forecast to move very little over the next week.  However, an upper
trough/TUTT churning SW of Laredo may bring a little relief to West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico in the short term.  This feature is
forecast to curve northward over the next 24 hours, and enter the
Big Bend Area by Saturday afternoon.  It is then forecast to move
north thru the Permian Basin and then back towards central Texas
next week.  This should generally promote an increase in cloud
cover, and keep temperatures near normal into next week.  Best
precip chances should be on the eastern side of the trough,
especially Sunday/Sunday night, but equally decent chances will
remain over the western mtns in upslope flow each day.  However,
these upper troughs can be disappointing, so we`ll keep POPs at a
chance at best attm.

Otherwise, the upper ridge will center over the Gulf Coast states
for the first part of the forecast, then shift back to the Four
Corners next week w/the demise of the upper trough.  This will allow
for a warming trend in the extended, back to above-normal by
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  94  74  93 /  10  10  10  30
Carlsbad                       68  98  72  96 /  10  10  10  30
Dryden                         75  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  70  94  72  92 /  10  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 66  93  67  88 /  10  10  20  30
Hobbs                          67  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  30
Marfa                          62  90  63  88 /  10  10  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           68  94  73  94 /  10  10  10  30
Odessa                         69  94  72  93 /  10  10  10  30
Wink                           69  97  74  96 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
005
FXUS64 KMAF 241945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending across the srn CONUS, and
forecast to move very little over the next week.  However, an upper
trough/TUTT churning SW of Laredo may bring a little relief to West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico in the short term.  This feature is
forecast to curve northward over the next 24 hours, and enter the
Big Bend Area by Saturday afternoon.  It is then forecast to move
north thru the Permian Basin and then back towards central Texas
next week.  This should generally promote an increase in cloud
cover, and keep temperatures near normal into next week.  Best
precip chances should be on the eastern side of the trough,
especially Sunday/Sunday night, but equally decent chances will
remain over the western mtns in upslope flow each day.  However,
these upper troughs can be disappointing, so we`ll keep POPs at a
chance at best attm.

Otherwise, the upper ridge will center over the Gulf Coast states
for the first part of the forecast, then shift back to the Four
Corners next week w/the demise of the upper trough.  This will allow
for a warming trend in the extended, back to above-normal by
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  94  74  93 /  10  10  10  30
Carlsbad                       68  98  72  96 /  10  10  10  30
Dryden                         75  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  70  94  72  92 /  10  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 66  93  67  88 /  10  10  20  30
Hobbs                          67  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  30
Marfa                          62  90  63  88 /  10  10  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           68  94  73  94 /  10  10  10  30
Odessa                         69  94  72  93 /  10  10  10  30
Wink                           69  97  74  96 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/44
280
FXUS64 KMAF 241709
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1209 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
elevated with some gusts out of the southeast this afternoon and
early evening before weakening overnight. Winds will once again
become elevated out of the southeast later Saturday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The sub tropical ridge will continue to dominate wx pattern for the
coming week.  Therefor expect little change from recent summertime
pattern.  Weak disturbances will move off the Gulf and track
westward moving under the center of the ridge and could help produce
some rain.

Yesterday Presidio was 106 and Rio Grande Village was 110.  It
should be a few degrees cooler there today but still well over the
century mark along the Rio Grande.  Slowly decreasing 850mb temps
should result in temperatures closer to normal today and
Saturday.  By Sunday and Monday temps may fall below normal.

At the surface the wind will remain out of the S to SE which will
keep low level moisture elevated.  Overall not much expecting much
in way of rain.  Did have some weak storms pop up during the early
morning over SE NM down to near Van Horn.  Current forecast has some
low pops this morning mainly bordering the western edge of the CWA
and again Saturday and Saturday night.  On Sunday and Monday these
pops expand east into the Permian Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  71  92  71 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       99  69  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         96  74  95  74 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  71  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 92  67  90  67 /  20  10  20  20
Hobbs                          94  68  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          91  60  89  61 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           95  71  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         94  71  93  72 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           97  72  96  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
737
FXUS64 KMAF 241111
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
611 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Had a few storms affect CNM early
this morning but activity has diminished greatly in the last hour.
Otherwise, gusty SE winds return to TAF sites by mid day today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The sub tropical ridge will continue to dominate wx pattern for the
coming week.  Therefor expect little change from recent summertime
pattern.  Weak disturbances will move off the Gulf and track
westward moving under the center of the ridge and could help produce
some rain.

Yesterday Presidio was 106 and Rio Grande Village was 110.  It
should be a few degrees cooler there today but still well over the
century mark along the Rio Grande.  Slowly decreasing 850mb temps
should result in temperatures closer to normal today and
Saturday.  By Sunday and Monday temps may fall below normal.

At the surface the wind will remain out of the S to SE which will
keep low level moisture elevated.  Overall not much expecting much
in way of rain.  Did have some weak storms pop up during the early
morning over SE NM down to near Van Horn.  Current forecast has some
low pops this morning mainly bordering the western edge of the CWA
and again Saturday and Saturday night.  On Sunday and Monday these
pops expand east into the Permian Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  71  92  71 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       99  69  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         96  74  95  74 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  71  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 92  67  90  67 /  20  10  20  20
Hobbs                          94  68  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          91  60  89  61 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           95  71  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         94  71  93  72 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           97  72  96  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
577
FXUS64 KMAF 240836
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
336 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The sub tropical ridge will continue to dominate wx pattern for the
coming week.  Therefor expect little change from recent summertime
pattern.  Weak disturbances will move off the Gulf and track
westward moving under the center of the ridge and could help produce
some rain.

Yesterday Presidio was 106 and Rio Grande Village was 110.  It
should be a few degrees cooler there today but still well over the
century mark along the Rio Grande.  Slowly decreasing 850mb temps
should result in temperatures closer to normal today and
Saturday.  By Sunday and Monday temps may fall below normal.

At the surface the wind will remain out of the S to SE which will
keep low level moisture elevated.  Overall not much expecting much
in way of rain.  Did have some weak storms pop up during the early
morning over SE NM down to near Van Horn.  Current forecast has some
low pops this morning mainly bordering the western edge of the CWA
and again Saturday and Saturday night.  On Sunday and Monday these
pops expand east into the Permian Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  71  92  71 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       99  69  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         96  74  95  74 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  71  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 92  67  90  67 /  20  10  20  20
Hobbs                          94  68  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          91  60  89  61 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           95  71  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         94  71  93  72 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           97  72  96  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
404
FXUS64 KMAF 240527
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1227 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Wind gusts subsiding tonight then
gusts return to TAF sites by mid day today.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fairly quiet weather pattern with near normal temperatures will
continue through Saturday as an upper level low pressure system
across southern Mexico moves northwestward toward the Big Bend
Region. Precipitation chances for the most part will be limited
through Saturday due to the forecast area residing on the western
or subsident side of the system. The exception may be the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains where intense heating on the higher terrain
combined with southeasterly upslope flow could allow isolated
diurnal driven thunderstorms to form.

The chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will be
on the increase Sunday and Monday as the upper low passes by to
the south, as it moves slowly westward near the Rio Grande River.
By this time the forecast area will reside on the eastern or more
moister laden side of the system. The Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains will have the best chance of precipitation as upslope
flow enhances lift. Temperatures are expected to cool to slightly
below normal values as the upper ridge gets undercut by the upper
low.

For next Tuesday through Thursday precipitation chances will be
on the decrease again with increasing temperatures as the upper
level ridge reasserts itself over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  92  71  91 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       68  97  69  94 /  10  10  10  20
Dryden                         74  93  74  92 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Stockton                  70  94  71  91 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 67  90  67  87 /  10  20  20  20
Hobbs                          68  92  67  90 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          60  89  63  87 /  10  20  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           70  94  72  92 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         71  93  72  92 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           72  96  72  94 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
229
FXUS64 KMAF 232338
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
638 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue to prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fairly quiet weather pattern with near normal temperatures will
continue through Saturday as an upper level low pressure system
across southern Mexico moves northwestward toward the Big Bend
Region. Precipitation chances for the most part will be limited
through Saturday due to the forecast area residing on the western
or subsident side of the system. The exception may be the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains where intense heating on the higher terrain
combined with southeasterly upslope flow could allow isolated
diurnal driven thunderstorms to form.

The chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will be
on the increase Sunday and Monday as the upper low passes by to
the south, as it moves slowly westward near the Rio Grande River.
By this time the forecast area will reside on the eastern or more
moister laden side of the system. The Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains will have the best chance of precipitation as upslope
flow enhances lift. Temperatures are expected to cool to slightly
below normal values as the upper ridge gets undercut by the upper
low.

For next Tuesday through Thursday precipitation chances will be
on the decrease again with increasing temperatures as the upper
level ridge reasserts itself over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  93  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       71  99  68  97 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         73  96  74  93 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  71  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  93  67  90 /  10  20  10  20
Hobbs                          68  94  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          64  92  60  89 /  10  10  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           72  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  94  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           73  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
220
FXUS64 KMAF 231933
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
233 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Fairly quiet weather pattern with near normal temperatures will
continue through Saturday as an upper level low pressure system
across southern Mexico moves northwestward toward the Big Bend
Region. Precipitation chances for the most part will be limited
through Saturday due to the forecast area residing on the western
or subsident side of the system. The exception may be the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains where intense heating on the higher terrain
combined with southeasterly upslope flow could allow isolated
diurnal driven thunderstorms to form.

The chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will be
on the increase Sunday and Monday as the upper low passes by to
the south, as it moves slowly westward near the Rio Grande River.
By this time the forecast area will reside on the eastern or more
moister laden side of the system. The Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains will have the best chance of precipitation as upslope
flow enhances lift. Temperatures are expected to cool to slightly
below normal values as the upper ridge gets undercut by the upper
low.

For next Tuesday through Thursday precipitation chances will be
on the decrease again with increasing temperatures as the upper
level ridge reasserts itself over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  93  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       71  99  68  97 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         73  96  74  93 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  71  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  93  67  90 /  10  20  10  20
Hobbs                          68  94  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          64  92  60  89 /  10  10  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           72  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  94  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           73  97  72  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/12
671
FXUS64 KMAF 231552
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1052 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by early afternoon over SE
NM, w/bases ~ 10 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 604 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
An outflow boundary from storms in northeastern NM has moved
through CNM and HOB and will arrive at MAF 12-13Z. The wind shift
will be weak and brief at MAF and has not been included in the TAF
though aviation interests should be aware of a wind shift from the
northeast for about an hour of about 5kts. Otherwise southeast
winds will prevail this TAF period along with VFR conditions.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the previous forecast with fairly uneventful
weather expect the next few days. Upper ridging will remain broadly
draped over the southern ConUS today and should be strong enough
to keep mountain convection at bay. High temperatures will be
slightly cooler (by a degree or two) today with afternoon readings
ranging from the mid 90s across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans
Pecos and higher terrain to 100-105 across southeast New Mexico,
Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley. The upper ridge will
begin to weaken overhead on Friday as an easterly wave/inverted
trough edges northward toward SW TX. Lower heights along with
persistent SE/upslope flow and mid level moisture in place along
the higher terrain may be enough to generate some
afternoon/evening convection across the mountain regions.

Saturday looks to be very similar to Friday with very little
northward progression of the inverted trough expected. Only thing
worth mentioning is better chances for mountain convection given
slightly lower heights, persistent upslope flow and increased
moisture. Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday and Monday
generally across the higher terrain and southern zones as the
inverted trough moves into SW TX. Temperatures will be cooler during
this time given increased rain chances and cloud cover. Expect highs
in the low to mid 90s most areas. Meanwhile, the upper ridge will
strengthen over the Four Corners region with dry and warming
conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  69  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      103  69 100  69 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                        100  72  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                 100  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 98  69  94  69 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                          98  66  95  67 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          96  63  93  63 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  70  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          102  71  98  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/12/44
736
FXUS64 KMAF 231104
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
604 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
An outflow boundary from storms in northeastern NM has moved
through CNM and HOB and will arrive at MAF 12-13Z. The wind shift
will be weak and brief at MAF and has not been included in the TAF
though aviation interests should be aware of a wind shift from the
northeast for about an hour of about 5kts. Otherwise southeast
winds will prevail this TAF period along with VFR conditions.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the previous forecast with fairly uneventful
weather expect the next few days. Upper ridging will remain broadly
draped over the southern ConUS today and should be strong enough
to keep mountain convection at bay. High temperatures will be
slightly cooler (by a degree or two) today with afternoon readings
ranging from the mid 90s across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans
Pecos and higher terrain to 100-105 across southeast New Mexico,
Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley. The upper ridge will
begin to weaken overhead on Friday as an easterly wave/inverted
trough edges northward toward SW TX. Lower heights along with
persistent SE/upslope flow and mid level moisture in place along
the higher terrain may be enough to generate some
afternoon/evening convection across the mountain regions.

Saturday looks to be very similar to Friday with very little
northward progression of the inverted trough expected. Only thing
worth mentioning is better chances for mountain convection given
slightly lower heights, persistent upslope flow and increased
moisture. Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday and Monday
generally across the higher terrain and southern zones as the
inverted trough moves into SW TX. Temperatures will be cooler during
this time given increased rain chances and cloud cover. Expect highs
in the low to mid 90s most areas. Meanwhile, the upper ridge will
strengthen over the Four Corners region with dry and warming
conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  69  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      103  69 100  69 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                        100  72  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                 100  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 98  69  94  69 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                          98  66  95  67 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          96  63  93  63 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  70  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          102  71  98  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
770
FXUS64 KMAF 230822
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
322 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the previous forecast with fairly uneventful
weather expect the next few days. Upper ridging will remain broadly
draped over the southern ConUS today and should be strong enough
to keep mountain convection at bay. High temperatures will be
slightly cooler (by a degree or two) today with afternoon readings
ranging from the mid 90s across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans
Pecos and higher terrain to 100-105 across southeast New Mexico,
Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley. The upper ridge will
begin to weaken overhead on Friday as an easterly wave/inverted
trough edges northward toward SW TX. Lower heights along with
persistent SE/upslope flow and mid level moisture in place along
the higher terrain may be enough to generate some
afternoon/evening convection across the mountain regions.

Saturday looks to be very similar to Friday with very little
northward progression of the inverted trough expected. Only thing
worth mentioning is better chances for mountain convection given
slightly lower heights, persistent upslope flow and increased
moisture. Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday and Monday
generally across the higher terrain and southern zones as the
inverted trough moves into SW TX. Temperatures will be cooler during
this time given increased rain chances and cloud cover. Expect highs
in the low to mid 90s most areas. Meanwhile, the upper ridge will
strengthen over the Four Corners region with dry and warming
conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  69  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      103  69 100  69 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                        100  72  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                 100  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 98  69  94  69 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                          98  66  95  67 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          96  63  93  63 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  70  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          102  71  98  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/27
132
FXUS64 KMAF 230502
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1202 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and modest southeast winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather pattern will continue through Saturday as upper
level high pressure dominates the region. Slightly cooling
forecast at 850 millibars suggest high temperatures should
cool to near normal values beneath the ridge. Intense heating on
the higher terrain combined with southeasterly upslope flow and
fairly cool 700 millibar temperatures could allow diurnal driven
isolated thunderstorms to form in the Guadalupe and or Davis
Mountains through Saturday.

For Sunday and Monday an upper level low pressure system is
forecast to track westward from the western Gulf of Mexico toward
the Big Bend Region. This would tend to undercut the ridge over
the area and allow for near to even slightly below normal
high temperatures. In addition the chance for showers and
thunderstorms will increase particularly across the Big Bend
Region and the Guadalupe Mountains as the system approaches and
passes by to south.

Precipitation chances with increasing temperatures look in the
offing next Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level ridge
reasserts itself.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  92  70  94 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       69  97  69  99 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         72  94  73  95 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  70  93  71  94 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 70  91  69  91 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          67  93  67  94 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  90  63  91 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  94  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         71  93  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           72  96  72  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
593
FXUS64 KMAF 222249
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
549 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Elevated
southeast winds will weaken slightly overnight then again become
elevated out of the southeast Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather pattern will continue through Saturday as upper
level high pressure dominates the region. Slightly cooling
forecast at 850 millibars suggest high temperatures should
cool to near normal values beneath the ridge. Intense heating on
the higher terrain combined with southeasterly upslope flow and
fairly cool 700 millibar temperatures could allow diurnal driven
isolated thunderstorms to form in the Guadalupe and or Davis
Mountains through Saturday.

For Sunday and Monday an upper level low pressure system is
forecast to track westward from the western Gulf of Mexico toward
the Big Bend Region. This would tend to undercut the ridge over
the area and allow for near to even slightly below normal
high temperatures. In addition the chance for showers and
thunderstorms will increase particularly across the Big Bend
Region and the Guadalupe Mountains as the system approaches and
passes by to south.

Precipitation chances with increasing temperatures look in the
offing next Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level ridge
reasserts itself.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  96  70  92 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       69 102  69  97 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         72  94  72  94 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  72  99  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 70  95  70  91 /  10  10  20  10
Hobbs                          68  99  67  93 /   0  10  10   0
Marfa                          61  95  62  90 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  95  70  94 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         72  95  71  93 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           73 101  72  96 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
045
FXUS64 KMAF 221922
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
222 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather pattern will continue through Saturday as upper
level high pressure dominates the region. Slightly cooling
forecast at 850 millibars suggest high temperatures should
cool to near normal values beneath the ridge. Intense heating on
the higher terrain combined with southeasterly upslope flow and
fairly cool 700 millibar temperatures could allow diurnal driven
isolated thunderstorms to form in the Guadalupe and or Davis
Mountains through Saturday.

For Sunday and Monday an upper level low pressure system is
forecast to track westward from the western Gulf of Mexico toward
the Big Bend Region. This would tend to undercut the ridge over
the area and allow for near to even slightly below normal
high temperatures. In addition the chance for showers and
thunderstorms will increase particularly across the Big Bend
Region and the Guadalupe Mountains as the system approaches and
passes by to south.

Precipitation chances with increasing temperatures look in the
offing next Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level ridge
reasserts itself.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  96  70  92 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       69 102  69  97 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                         72  94  72  94 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  72  99  70  93 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 70  95  70  91 /  10  10  20  10
Hobbs                          68  99  67  93 /   0  10  10   0
Marfa                          61  95  62  90 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  95  70  94 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         72  95  71  93 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           73 101  72  96 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/12
778
FXUS64 KMAF 221115
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
615 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light and occasionally gusty southeast winds
will continue the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the previous forecast with fairly uneventful
weather expect the next several days. We will remain under the
influence of a broad upper ridge through Friday, with thunderstorm
chances generally confined to the higher terrain regions. Slightly
drier air at the surface and 850mb thermal ridge will edge east
today, resulting in high temperatures near or above 100 across much
of SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Much of the same can be expected
Thursday then a few degrees cooler Friday through the weekend.

Models continue to show an easterly wave heading NW out of Mexico
toward west Texas this weekend, splitting the upper ridge to the
east and west of the forecast area. This way could potentially
bringing rain chances back to southern portions of the CWA Sunday
and Monday. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave moving south through eastern
NM may generate some convection that could move south into northwest
zones Sunday night. Otherwise, cooler high temperatures expected
Sunday through the beginning of next work week with highs in the low
to mid 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      102  69 102  70 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         98  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  99  71  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 95  71  96  70 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          98  68  98  68 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          92  63  94  62 /  10   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  72  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         98  73  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          101  73 101  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
586
FXUS64 KMAF 220840
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
340 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the previous forecast with fairly uneventful
weather expect the next several days. We will remain under the
influence of a broad upper ridge through Friday, with thunderstorm
chances generally confined to the higher terrain regions. Slightly
drier air at the surface and 850mb thermal ridge will edge east
today, resulting in high temperatures near or above 100 across much
of SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Much of the same can be expected
Thursday then a few degrees cooler Friday through the weekend.

Models continue to show an easterly wave heading NW out of Mexico
toward west Texas this weekend, splitting the upper ridge to the
east and west of the forecast area. This way could potentially
bringing rain chances back to southern portions of the CWA Sunday
and Monday. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave moving south through eastern
NM may generate some convection that could move south into northwest
zones Sunday night. Otherwise, cooler high temperatures expected
Sunday through the beginning of next work week with highs in the low
to mid 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  70  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      102  69 102  70 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         98  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  99  71  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 95  71  96  70 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          98  68  98  68 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          92  63  94  62 /  10   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  72  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         98  73  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          101  73 101  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/27
482
FXUS64 KMAF 220509
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1209 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with light and occasionally gusty southeas winds
expected this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 157 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016/

Quiet weather pattern will continue through Saturday as upper level
high pressure dominates the region. 850 millibar temperature forecasts
suggest above normal temperatures are in the offing beneath the
ridge through Saturday. Intense heating on the higher terrain combined
with southeasterly upslope flow and fairly cool 700 millibar temperatures
could allow diurnal driven isolated thunderstorms to form in the
Guadalupe and or Davis Mountains through Saturday.

Beyond Saturday through early next week, an upper level low pressure
system is forecast to track westward from the western Gulf of
Mexico toward the Big Bend Region. This would tend to undercut the
ridge over the area and allow for high temperatures to cool to
more normal values Sunday through next Tuesday. In addition the
chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase particularly
across the Big Bend Region as the system approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  97  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       70 103  69 100 /   0  10  20   0
Dryden                         72  98  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  99  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  97  68  93 /  10  10  20  10
Hobbs                          69  98  66  95 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          60  95  60  92 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           73  98  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         74  98  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74 101  72  98 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
326
FXUS64 KMAF 212246
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
546 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

An h85 low level jet will increase to around 40kt over the region
this evening and result in gusty winds at most area terminals as
late as 22/07Z before moving off to the north of the region late.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals
tonight and Wednesday.

67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 157 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016/

Quiet weather pattern will continue through Saturday as upper level
high pressure dominates the region. 850 millibar temperature forecasts
suggest above normal temperatures are in the offing beneath the
ridge through Saturday. Intense heating on the higher terrain combined
with southeasterly upslope flow and fairly cool 700 millibar temperatures
could allow diurnal driven isolated thunderstorms to form in the
Guadalupe and or Davis Mountains through Saturday.

Beyond Saturday through early next week, an upper level low pressure
system is forecast to track westward from the western Gulf of
Mexico toward the Big Bend Region. This would tend to undercut the
ridge over the area and allow for high temperatures to cool to
more normal values Sunday through next Tuesday. In addition the
chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase particularly
across the Big Bend Region as the system approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       70 101  70 103 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         73  98  72  98 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  99  72  99 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  93  71  97 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          68  98  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          63  91  60  95 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/12
333
FXUS64 KMAF 211857
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
157 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather pattern will continue through Saturday as upper level
high pressure dominates the region. 850 millibar temperature forecasts
suggest above normal temperatures are in the offing beneath the
ridge through Saturday. Intense heating on the higher terrain combined
with southeasterly upslope flow and fairly cool 700 millibar temperatures
could allow diurnal driven isolated thunderstorms to form in the
Guadalupe and or Davis Mountains through Saturday.

Beyond Saturday through early next week, an upper level low pressure
system is forecast to track westward from the western Gulf of
Mexico toward the Big Bend Region. This would tend to undercut the
ridge over the area and allow for high temperatures to cool to
more normal values Sunday through next Tuesday. In addition the
chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase particularly
across the Big Bend Region as the system approaches.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       70 101  70 103 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         73  98  72  98 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  99  72  99 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  93  71  97 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          68  98  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          63  91  60  95 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74 101  74 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/12
043
FXUS64 KMAF 211741
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1241 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
No significant weather is expected across southeast New Mexico
or southwest Texas through Wednesday morning. VFR conditions are
forecast for all area terminals. Winds are expected to be south
to southeast at 10 to 12 knots with some gusts expected this
afternoon into the evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 607 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Summer is the season of the upper ridge and the next seven days
are no exception. The best you can hope for is to avoid having the
high pressure center overhead, which we thankfully manage to do
for the most part. High pressure will remain centered over the
four corners region through the end of the week with an
occasional wobble to the east. That will leave southwest Texas and
southeast New Mexico under a general deep easterly or southerly
flow keeping temperatures near or only slightly above normal.
About the only chance for rain will be isolated storms in the
Davis and Guadalupe Mountains.

Several models are showing an easterly wave may move into eastern
Mexico from the Gulf and move northward towards our area by the
weekend. The increase in moisture and cooler temperatures aloft
could provide enough instability for more widely scattered showers
and storms by Sunday, but easterly waves are notoriously hard to
predict so confidence in any rainfall is still low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  96  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72 102  70 103 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         73  99  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73 100  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  94  71  97 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          69  99  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          65  92  60  95 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           72  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74 102  74 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/05
581
FXUS64 KMAF 211107
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
607 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Summer is the season of the upper ridge and the next seven days
are no exception. The best you can hope for is to avoid having the
high pressure center overhead, which we thankfully manage to do
for the most part. High pressure will remain centered over the
four corners region through the end of the week with an
occasional wobble to the east. That will leave southwest Texas and
southeast New Mexico under a general deep easterly or southerly
flow keeping temperatures near or only slightly above normal.
About the only chance for rain will be isolated storms in the
Davis and Guadalupe Mountains.

Several models are showing an easterly wave may move into eastern
Mexico from the Gulf and move northward towards our area by the
weekend. The increase in moisture and cooler temperatures aloft
could provide enough instability for more widely scattered showers
and storms by Sunday, but easterly waves are notoriously hard to
predict so confidence in any rainfall is still low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       96  72 102  70 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         96  73  99  72 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  96  73 100  72 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 90  68  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          94  69  99  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          89  65  92  60 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           94  72  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         94  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           97  74 102  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/10
738
FXUS64 KMAF 210817
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
317 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Summer is the season of the upper ridge and the next seven days
are no exception. The best you can hope for is to avoid having the
high pressure center overhead, which we thankfully manage to do
for the most part. High pressure will remain centered over the
four corners region through the end of the week with an
occasional wobble to the east. That will leave southwest Texas and
southeast New Mexico under a general deep easterly or southerly
flow keeping temperatures near or only slightly above normal.
About the only chance for rain will be isolated storms in the
Davis and Guadalupe Mountains.

Several models are showing an easterly wave may move into eastern
Mexico from the Gulf and move northward towards our area by the
weekend. The increase in moisture and cooler temperatures aloft
could provide enough instability for more widely scattered showers
and storms by Sunday, but easterly waves are notoriously hard to
predict so confidence in any rainfall is still low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       96  72 102  70 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         96  73  99  72 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  96  73 100  72 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 90  68  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          94  69  99  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          89  65  92  60 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           94  72  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         94  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           97  74 102  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/10
539
FXUS64 KMAF 210453
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1153 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT...skies are mainly partly to
mostly cloudy. Radar is indc a few light showers just northeast
of Boquillas Canyon...otherwise it is dry across the area.

Fairly benign weather is in store for the short term across the
CWA. Ridge centered over the Rockies into the Central Plains is
continuing the deep layer easterly flow over the CWA. This will
bring dry weather with near to slightly above normal temps.

The ridge will sink south bringing hotter temps for the end of the
week...but temps should stay below Advisory levels. An inverted
trof will move west from the Gulf of Mexico under the ridge. This
could bring a few storms to the southern and western mountains the
end of the week into the beginning of the weekend...but it only
looks like a slight chance at best. There could be some convection
inthe Plains on Sunday as the inverted trof edges
northwest...but it is too early to get excited about that yet.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  95  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       67  95  69 102 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         73  97  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  69  94  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  90  70  96 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          65  93  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          61  88  62  93 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  96  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  95  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           71  97  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/10/
583
FXUS64 KMAF 202225
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
525 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by late Tuesday morning,
w/bases 4-5 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT...skies are mainly partly to
mostly cloudy. Radar is indc a few light showers just northeast
of Boquillas Canyon...otherwise it is dry across the area.

Fairly benign weather is in store for the short term across the
CWA. Ridge centered over the Rockies into the Central Plains is
continuing the deep layer easterly flow over the CWA. This will
bring dry weather with near to slightly above normal temps.

The ridge will sink south bringing hotter temps for the end of the
week...but temps should stay below Advisory levels. An inverted
trof will move west from the Gulf of Mexico under the ridge. This
could bring a few storms to the southern and western mountains the
end of the week into the beginning of the weekend...but it only
looks like a slight chance at best. There could be some convectionin
the Plains on Sunday as the inverted trof edges northwest...but it
is too early to get excited about that yet.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  95  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       67  95  69 102 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         73  97  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  69  94  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  90  70  96 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          65  93  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          61  88  62  93 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  96  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  95  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           71  97  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
253
FXUS64 KMAF 201953
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
253 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT...skies are mainly partly to
mostly cloudy. Radar is indc a few light showers just northeast
of Boquillas Canyon...otherwise it is dry across the area.

Fairly benign weather is in store for the short term across the
CWA. Ridge centered over the Rockies into the Central Plains is
continuing the deep layer easterly flow over the CWA. This will
bring dry weather with near to slightly above normal temps.

The ridge will sink south bringing hotter temps for the end of the
week...but temps should stay below Advisory levels. An inverted
trof will move west from the Gulf of Mexico under the ridge. This
could bring a few storms to the southern and western mountains the
end of the week into the beginning of the weekend...but it only
looks like a slight chance at best. There could be some convectionin
the Plains on Sunday as the inverted trof edges northwest...but it
is too early to get excited about that yet.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  95  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       67  95  69 102 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         73  97  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  69  94  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  90  70  96 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          65  93  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          61  88  62  93 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  96  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  95  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           71  97  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/33
126
FXUS64 KMAF 201701
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1201 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies are expected at the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Winds
will generally be southeasterly at 10 to 15 mph with some gusts
this afternoon and early evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 557 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today and
tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/

The upper ridge continues to flatten over the Plains, giving us a
slight break from the intense heat we saw last week. Temperatures
the next couple of days will be similar to what we saw Sunday, which
is very close to normal. The upper ridge then shifts back south
across Texas by midweek bringing with it hotter temperatures. An
isolated storm is not out of the question much of this week, but
increasing mid level heights will act to suppress any convection
that tries to form. Models then show the ridge breaking down this
coming weekend with cooler temps and even some scattered storms
around the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       66  96  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         73  97  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  69  95  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  90  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          64  93  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  88  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           70  96  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         71  95  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           70  96  72 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
425
FXUS64 KMAF 201057
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
557 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today and
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016/

The upper ridge continues to flatten over the Plains, giving us a
slight break from the intense heat we saw last week. Temperatures
the next couple of days will be similar to what we saw Sunday, which
is very close to normal. The upper ridge then shifts back south
across Texas by midweek bringing with it hotter temperatures. An
isolated storm is not out of the question much of this week, but
increasing mid level heights will act to suppress any convection
that tries to form. Models then show the ridge breaking down this
coming weekend with cooler temps and even some scattered storms
around the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  68  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       95  66  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         94  73  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  92  69  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 88  66  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          91  64  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          86  62  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         93  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           94  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
472
FXUS64 KMAF 200805
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
305 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge continues to flatten over the Plains, giving us a
slight break from the intense heat we saw last week. Temperatures
the next couple of days will be similar to what we saw Sunday, which
is very close to normal. The upper ridge then shifts back south
across Texas by midweek bringing with it hotter temperatures. An
isolated storm is not out of the question much of this week, but
increasing mid level heights will act to suppress any convection
that tries to form. Models then show the ridge breaking down this
coming weekend with cooler temps and even some scattered storms
around the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  68  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       95  66  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         94  73  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  92  69  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 88  66  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          91  64  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          86  62  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         93  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           94  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
856
FXUS64 KMAF 200529
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1229 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow.  Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases
3-4.5 kft AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  91  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       68  95  67  96 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         73  95  74  97 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  70  93  70  95 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 67  88  66  89 /  10  10   0  10
Hobbs                          66  91  66  93 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          59  86  59  88 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  93  70  96 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         71  93  71  95 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           71  95  70  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
370
FXUS64 KMAF 192123
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
423 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field Monday by late morning,
w/bases 4.5-7 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 140 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered along the NM/CO border this morning will
slowly wobble north. By Monday the ridge axis will stretch from
Southern CA across AZ... CO... KS to MO.  This will allow easterly
flow to move under the ridge.  However by Tuesday the ridge will
begin to build southward and hotter temps will soon follow.

After a string of 100 degree days widespread cloud cover across the
northern half of the area has held temps down so far today. Temps
will be warmer on Monday and back to near normal.  By Tuesday
readings will climb above normal with 100s returning to parts of the
area by Wednesday.  Above normal through the end of the forecast.

A shortwave triggered a MCS this morning that moved down the
east side of the area bringing a nice rain to the NE Permian Basin.
Remains of this feature have pushed south and were beginning tonight
up again across the Lower Trans Pecos as of 18z.  What remains of
rain chances tonight and Monday should be limited to southern CWA.
Model qpf develops some precip across the south tonight but one
model also puts a bullseye over Permian Basin.  Have raised pops
tonight to slight chance close to the Rio Grand but have not added
any pops to the Permian Basin.  Some low random pops in the extended
but nothing significant at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  91  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       68  95  67  96 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         73  95  74  97 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  70  93  70  95 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 67  88  66  89 /  10  10   0  10
Hobbs                          66  91  66  93 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          59  86  59  88 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  93  70  96 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         71  93  71  95 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           71  95  70  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/84/44
502
FXUS64 KMAF 191840
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
140 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered along the NM/CO border this morning will
slowly wobble north. By Monday the ridge axis will stretch from
Southern CA across AZ... CO... KS to MO.  This will allow easterly
flow to move under the ridge.  However by Tuesday the ridge will
begin to build southward and hotter temps will soon follow.

After a string of 100 degree days widespread cloud cover across the
northern half of the area has held temps down so far today. Temps
will be warmer on Monday and back to near normal.  By Tuesday
readings will climb above normal with 100s returning to parts of the
area by Wednesday.  Above normal through the end of the forecast.

A shortwave triggered a MCS this morning that moved down the
east side of the area bringing a nice rain to the NE Permian Basin.
Remains of this feature have pushed south and were beginning tonight
up again across the Lower Trans Pecos as of 18z.  What remains of
rain chances tonight and Monday should be limited to southern CWA.
Model qpf develops some precip across the south tonight but one
model also puts a bullseye over Permian Basin.  Have raised pops
tonight to slight chance close to the Rio Grand but have not added
any pops to the Permian Basin.  Some low random pops in the extended
but nothing significant at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  91  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       68  95  67  96 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         73  95  74  97 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  70  93  70  95 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 67  88  66  89 /  10  10   0  10
Hobbs                          66  91  66  93 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          59  86  59  88 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  93  70  96 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         71  93  71  95 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           71  95  70  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/72
052
FXUS64 KMAF 191704
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1204 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. A dying thunderstorm complex
in the Permian Basin will produce abundant mid and high clouds
this afternoon. These clouds will diminish from east to west
as the afternoon progresses. Gusty east winds will become
southeast early this afternoon at 10 to 15 mph with an occasional
higher gust through early this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 600 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move southwestward into west Texas
this morning, but are expected to weaken by 19/15Z.  Will mention
TSRA at KMAF, but due to low probability will leave any mention out
of the other area terminals.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
today and tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...

We will finally see a break from the widespread 100`s we have had
over the last few days.

An MCS that developed over SW OK overnight is moving south-southwest
across the TX Southern High Plains. These storms are producing
very heavy rain and frequent lightning. Some locations east of
Lubbock have received a couple inches of rain already and similar
rainfall may be expected across the Western Low Rolling Plains
before long. Hi-res models show this convection continuing to
evolve and push across our area this morning. We also can`t rule
out damaging winds and maybe even some hail given high instability
and strong shear over the area. Forecast updates are likely as we
go through this morning.

The large upper ridge continues to shift into the Plains while
flattening out. This will allow for deeper easterly flow across TX
and an increase in moisture. We will see afternoon highs fall about
5 to 7 degrees beginning today with even cooler temperatures
expected Monday and Tuesday. A weak inverted trough moving
underneath the ridge will cross early this week bringing more clouds
and possibly some isolated storms. Hotter temperatures arrive
midweek as the ridge reasserts itself over the area. With each
progressive run, models have shown a weaker upper high late in
the week which should keep temperatures closer to normal.
Unfortunately, any precipitation looks to remain out of our area
through at least the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  91  68  94 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       68  95  67  96 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         73  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  69  92  70  94 /  10  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 68  88  66  90 /  10  10   0  10
Hobbs                          65  92  64  93 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          60  86  60  88 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  93  71  96 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         71  93  71  95 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           71  95  70  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
045
FXUS64 KMAF 191100
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
600 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move southwestward into west Texas
this morning, but are expected to weaken by 19/15Z.  Will mention
TSRA at KMAF, but due to low probability will leave any mention out
of the other area terminals.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
today and tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...

We will finally see a break from the widespread 100`s we have had
over the last few days.

An MCS that developed over SW OK overnight is moving south-southwest
across the TX Southern High Plains. These storms are producing
very heavy rain and frequent lightning. Some locations east of
Lubbock have received a couple inches of rain already and similar
rainfall may be expected across the Western Low Rolling Plains
before long. Hi-res models show this convection continuing to
evolve and push across our area this morning. We also can`t rule
out damaging winds and maybe even some hail given high instability
and strong shear over the area. Forecast updates are likely as we
go through this morning.

The large upper ridge continues to shift into the Plains while
flattening out. This will allow for deeper easterly flow across TX
and an increase in moisture. We will see afternoon highs fall about
5 to 7 degrees beginning today with even cooler temperatures
expected Monday and Tuesday. A weak inverted trough moving
underneath the ridge will cross early this week bringing more clouds
and possibly some isolated storms. Hotter temperatures arrive
midweek as the ridge reasserts itself over the area. With each
progressive run, models have shown a weaker upper high late in
the week which should keep temperatures closer to normal.
Unfortunately, any precipitation looks to remain out of our area
through at least the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  68  91  68 /  60  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       99  68  95  67 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         96  73  94  74 /  30  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  69  92  70 /  20  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 92  68  88  66 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          94  65  92  64 /  20  10  10   0
Marfa                          89  60  86  60 /  20  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           95  70  93  71 /  30  10  10   0
Odessa                         95  71  93  71 /  30  10  10   0
Wink                           97  71  95  70 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
412
FXUS64 KMAF 190910
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
410 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

We will finally see a break from the widespread 100`s we have had
over the last few days.

An MCS that developed over SW OK overnight is moving south-southwest
across the TX Southern High Plains. These storms are producing
very heavy rain and frequent lightning. Some locations east of
Lubbock have received a couple inches of rain already and similar
rainfall may be expected across the Western Low Rolling Plains
before long. Hi-res models show this convection continuing to
evolve and push across our area this morning. We also can`t rule
out damaging winds and maybe even some hail given high instability
and strong shear over the area. Forecast updates are likely as we
go through this morning.

The large upper ridge continues to shift into the Plains while
flattening out. This will allow for deeper easterly flow across TX
and an increase in moisture. We will see afternoon highs fall about
5 to 7 degrees beginning today with even cooler temperatures
expected Monday and Tuesday. A weak inverted trough moving
underneath the ridge will cross early this week bringing more clouds
and possibly some isolated storms. Hotter temperatures arrive
midweek as the ridge reasserts itself over the area. With each
progressive run, models have shown a weaker upper high late in
the week which should keep temperatures closer to normal.
Unfortunately, any precipitation looks to remain out of our area
through at least the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  68  91  68 /  60  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       99  68  95  67 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         96  73  94  74 /  30  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  69  92  70 /  20  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 92  68  88  66 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          94  65  92  64 /  20  10  10   0
Marfa                          89  60  86  60 /  20  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           95  70  93  71 /  30  10  10   0
Odessa                         95  71  93  71 /  30  10  10   0
Wink                           97  71  95  70 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
487
FXUS64 KMAF 190442
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1142 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide today and tonight.
Convection over SW Oklahoma may develop southwestward through late
tonight, and possibly affect KMAF.  Will not include any mention
in the forecast due to low probability.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  93  70  92 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       66  98  70  95 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         75  96  75  94 /  10  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  74  95  71  92 /  10  20   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 69  91  68  88 /  10   0  10  10
Hobbs                          70  95  67  92 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          58  89  59  86 /  10  20   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           73  96  72  93 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         74  95  73  93 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           74  98  72  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
292
FXUS64 KMAF 190312
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1012 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc observations show temps falling off rapidly w/loss of
daytime heating...and the Heat Advisory has been allowed to
expire as scheduled.  We`ll do a quick update to rid the grids of
this...and make other adjustments 1st period based on current
observations and latest model trends.  Convection that the models
have been developing to move SW into the NE zones does not look
reasonable attm...especially w/PBL stabilization. However...we`ll
leave a mention of isolated convection in the grids.  Updates out
shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 217 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered near ELP this morning will begin to wander
north on Sunday bringing a decrease in the unseasonably hot
temperatures.  The center of ridge moves far enough northward early
early next week to allow an easterly features to come off the gulf
and track across the region.  After that the ridge builds back
across the region and heat returns.

At the surface a persistent S to SE flow will keep low level
moisture elevated especially across the east where dewpts as high as
70 were observed this morning.  The hottest location yesterday was
Rio Grande Village with a high of 112 degrees and this morning it
was Presidio with a low of 81 degrees.  A heat advisory remains in
effect this afternoon and evening along and west of the Pecos River.
Some locations have already risen past 100 degrees by 19z.  Expect
to have slightly cooler temps tomorrow with highs returning to near
normal Monday... in the low to mid 90s.  For overnight lows staying
warm and leaning toward persistence.

Do have some low storm chances... will leave the isolated pops in
the east tonight and the south tomorrow as models do develop some
qpf.  Have gone ahead and threw in isolated pops over the Davis Mtns
down into northern Presidio and Brewster counties this evening as CU
going up over the mountains.  Rain chances not looking good rest of
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  93  70  92 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       66  98  70  95 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         75  96  75  94 /  10  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  74  95  71  92 /  10  20   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 69  91  68  88 /  10   0  10  10
Hobbs                          70  95  67  92 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          58  89  59  86 /  10  20   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           73  96  72  93 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         74  95  73  93 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           74  98  72  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/44

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