Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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014
FXUS64 KMAF 270523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. Isolated afternoon
thunderstorms will be in the area but coverage will not be enough
to place TS in TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The persistent sub tropical ridge extends from Mexico across the
region to the Atlantic coast.  This ridge will continue the warm wx
for the area.  However an upper trough moving over the Intermountain
West will bring slightly cooler temps and an increased chance of
rain to W TX and SE NM.  As this trough swings unto the plains
Thursday the ridge will split into an east and west version with a
weakness between.  The upper ridge reestablishes itself across the
southern half of the country after the trough passes east.

Very warm temperatures have been continuing over the past week.
Normal highs for this time of year across the Permian Basin should
be in the lower 90s but we continue to have highs in the upper 90s
with highs yesterday of 100 or more at Big Spring... along the Pecos
River valley and the Rio Grande.  Models continue to struggle with
developing a possible Pacific front with the upper trough but wind
fields remain southerly so not expecting it.

An inverted surface trough extends up across the western CWA and
should help focus storm development.  Most storms tonight should be
confined to the higher elevations... however currently have a very
well developed cu field over the Permian Basin and satellite showing
some enhanced areas over the Northern Permian Basin so have added
isolated pops there.  Afternoon storms mainly over the higher
elevations expected again Wednesday.

Have been monitoring a possible heavy rain event Thursday.  Model
qpf still develops a line of storms extending from the southern CWA to
well north of the Red River will move across the area Thursday.  The
highest rain totals look to be over the northern CWA and the Davis
Mtns into Pecos County.  Yesterdays MAF soundings had PW of 1.2
inches and a few storms produced locally heavy rain.  Over an inch
of rain was measured Monday at Tatum in a short amount of time.
This mornings MAF 12z sounding PW has decreased to 1.1 inches... but
model soundings show PW increasing to 1.5 inches by Thursday so
heavy rain potential will increase.  Latest pops and qpf not enough
to warrant a Flash Flood Watch but will continue to mention flood
potential in HWO.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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