Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 071949

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
249 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

The main focus for the forecast package will continue to be the
potential for flooding/flash flooding across many areas over the
next couple of days... A Flash Flood remains for the western half of
the CWA Wednesday.

An upper low, currently located over southeast AZ, will continue its
slow progression E/SE today, overspreading large scale forcing for
ascent across the region through at least Thursday. Yesterday, a few
thunderstorms affected western zones as well as the Davis Mountain
regions during the afternoon/evening hours. Some of the storms were
heavy rain producers and as a result, the Rio Grande River at
Candelaria briefly rose above flood stage late last night. This may
be the beginning of what is to come over the next few days.

Will begin to see an uptick in showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and tonight, particularly across SE NM, Upper Trans Pecos
and south through the Marfa Plateau and Rio Grande Valley. Similar
to yesterday, some storms could be severe through the evening hours
generally across the Van Horn and the Hwy 54 corridor/Rio Grande
Valley regions. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for these
areas through 08/02Z. Regardless, heavy rainfall will continue to be
the main threat with 1-3" of rainfall possible across these areas
through Thursday morning. Flooding/flash flooding is expected
especially across urban areas and where soils are already saturated.
The axis of heaviest rain looks to shift south and east toward the
southern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions
Thursday into Thursday night but depending on the exact placement of
the upper low, could see main precip area shift even farther south
for this time period. For now, will continue likely PoPs across
these areas. Potential impacts today through Friday may include;
flooded urban roadways and rural low water crossings, flooding of
low flowing arroyos/creeks and potentially rivers, including those
in SE NM. Reduced visibility in short distances may impact airports
and auto travel.

Friday, the upper low begins to retrograde west and rain chances
will shift south and decrease throughout the day. Clearing skies and
Drier weather expected this weekend and into the beginning of next
work week with the return of upper ridging. Below normal high
temperatures expected through Saturday due to rain/cloud cover then
temperatures are expected to rebound to above normal readings next


BIG SPRING TX                  64  79  63  79  /  20  60  60  60
CARLSBAD NM                    59  68  57  72  /  80  70  60  60
DRYDEN TX                      70  78  67  82  /  40  80  80  60
FORT STOCKTON TX               63  74  61  77  /  70  80  80  60
GUADALUPE PASS TX              55  63  52  66  /  80  70  60  60
HOBBS NM                       59  69  57  73  /  80  80  60  60
MARFA TX                       55  71  55  71  /  80  80  70  60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        64  75  62  78  /  50  70  70  60
ODESSA TX                      63  73  62  77  /  50  70  70  60
WINK TX                        64  73  63  78  /  80  80  70  60


NM...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...
     Midland...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.



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