Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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029
FXUS64 KMAF 300901
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
401 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures will be a bit above normal today and tomorrow with
the help of westerly mid and upper level flow across the area. An
upper low over the north central plains will lift north today, and
while normally this would have little impact on west Texas and
southeast New Mexico, today it will give a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms thanks to tropical moisture from
Tropical Storm Rachel in the eastern Pacific. East Pac moisture
was the source for our flooding rains last week but right now
there is much less moisture so just a few storms is all that is
expected.

A second upper trough drops into the southern Rockies Thursday
bringing our next cold front. High temperatures will be tricky as
the front will pass through the CWA during the day and timing will
be critical as to how much pre-frontal heating will occur before
cold air advection begins. Most models right now show a mid-day
fropa at MAF with little heating in northern Lea County and hot
temperatures mainly along the Rio Grande valley. Not impressed
with the strength of the upper trough so will not place any PoPs
in with the frontal passage at this time though isolated storms in
the eastern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains where
limited moisture will be available would not be a surprise at all.

In the wake of the trough a broad ridge over the western states
will develop and remain stationary keeping us in a northwest flow
pattern through the weekend. This will cause temps to only slowly
warm from highs near 80 on Friday to the mid and upper 80s by
early next week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 89  64  91  62  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              89  67  93  67  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                89  61  91  59  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  95  68  95  69  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           92  67  95  65  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  59  82  57  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   86  60  88  58  /  10  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   85  58  87  57  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    90  66  93  65  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  90  66  93  65  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    93  65  95  63  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/10

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