873
FXUS64 KMAF 181947
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WESTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.
VERY DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AND
NEAR RECORD HEAT.
THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW FAR EASTWARD THE DRYLINE
WILL MIX THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KMAF SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. THE DRYLINE QUICKLY MOVED
EAST OF MIDLAND. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE TTU MESONET
SHOW THAT THE DRYLINE HAS MIXED TO NEAR A FLUVANNA TO ST. LAWRENCE
LINE AT PRESENT TIME. PRIMARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
MIX FARTHER TO THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS KEPT THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FROM JUST EAST OF MIDLAND
TO JUST WEST OF SANDERSON. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE ADJUSTED THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA FARTHER EAST. I WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT. A 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CWA
AND AREAS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CWA HAVE FORECAST 700 MB
TEMPS OF 13-14C AT 00Z THIS EVENING. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
OVERCOME A CAP LIKE THAT...PROBABLY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TIME FOR DRIER AIR MIX FARTHER EASTWARD....WHICH
OF COURSE WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
OUR AREA AND CERTAINLY DIMINISH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WHILE THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS DOES SHOW AROUND 2000 J/KG CAPE OVER SCURRY COUNTY
PRESENTLY...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT YET SEEN VIA RADAR OR SATELLITE.
FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW ORDER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. IF A
THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO REACH STRONG LEVELS...AND WILL PLACE THAT WORDING IN TODAY`S
GRAPHIC.
WE START TO SEE SOME INTERESTING CHANCES BY MID WEEK. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEAST SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
ALVIN COULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FOR NOW...WE HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT POP GRIDS
FORECAST AND RE-EVALUATE RAIN POTENTIAL WITH LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 95 60 95 / 0 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 96 61 97 / 10 0 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 65 95 62 96 / 0 0 10 0
DRYDEN TX 68 100 67 101 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 68 97 65 98 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 60 93 59 93 / 0 0 10 0
MARFA TX 50 87 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 95 62 97 / 0 0 10 0
ODESSA TX 66 95 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 63 101 61 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...
DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
80/03
