Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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614
FXUS64 KMAF 131131
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS expected the next 6 hours, with improving
conditions after 18Z perhaps getting briefly to VFR. A return of
MVFR CIGs is expected after 00Z which should persist through the
remainder of the TAF period. Light showers expected through 18Z
though no lightning so there will be minimal impact at the
terminals.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Rainfall had diminished significantly across southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas early this morning. The next disturbance
moving northwestward from Mexico was generating showers across
portions of the Rio Grande Valley and was approaching the Big
Bend and the lower Trans Pecos region. Since the airmass has
stabilized behind a strong cold front, precipitation amounts
with this wave are not expected to be excessive this morning.
Because of the stabilizing trend, have opted to cancel the flash
flood watch this morning for southeast New Mexico and portions of
west and southwest Texas. It is expected to be a cloudy day and
high temperatures are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees below normal
behind the cold front.

Another in a series of disturbances is forecast tonight to move
northward from Mexico into extreme west Texas. Expecting a slight
chance to a chance of showers tonight, mainly south of the Pecos
River in west Texas with this feature. This wave will continue to
push northward Sunday across west Texas resulting in at least a
slight chance of showers across a good portion of the forecast
area. The post frontal airmass will moderate some Sunday but
temperatures are still expected to remain well below normal with
considerable cloudiness.

The flow aloft is forecast to transition to west/northwest Monday
and Tuesday. Disturbances in this flow could kick off isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms across a good portion of
the forecast area Monday. In addition this flow will drop another
cold front into the region Monday night and Tuesday, with the
chance of thunderstorms continuing. The precipitation is expected
to become more isolated on Wednesday as the front dissipates.

Went with a dry forecast with near normal temperatures per the
GFS model Thursday through next Saturday with upper ridging
dominating. Will discount the ECMWF depicting a major upper
level storm system developing across the western states and
then stalling it across the Rockies with another large closed
low along the Gulf Coast. This upper pattern does not look
reasonable.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10

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