071
FXUS64 KMAF 172247
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH BASED FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. SOUTH WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY BY MID
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THRU THE WRN
CONUS...AMPLIFYING A RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS/SE NM AND RESULTING IN
ANOTHER DAY OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS. KMAF WAS 99F AT 18Z.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING TROUGH...AND TEMPS DROP INTO ONLY THE UPPER
90S SATURDAY. INCREASING SW FLOW W/THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN UP A
DRYLINE OVER THE EXTREME ERN EDGE OF THE FA
SATURDAY...W/SINGLE-DIGIT RH/S TO THE WEST RESULTING IN CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. TODAY/S MODELS
AREN/T QUITE AS STRONG ON WINDS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AS 24 HRS
AGO...BUT STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS NEVERTHELESS. CURRENT
FIRE WX WATCH LOOKS REASONABLE...AND WE/LL LET THE MORNING SHIFT
MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON WHERE TO ISSUE THE RFW.
OTHERWISE...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE FIRST...AND
SWING THRU THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A FIRE WX THREAT
OVER THE NW ZONES INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP THE
UPPER RIDGE FROM REASSERTING ITSELF...AND TEMPERATURES AT BAY. IN
FACT...W/THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH...MODELS ATTEMPT TO
BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE NE ZONES TUESDAY...BUT W/LITTLE EFFECT.
BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE TO TREND TEMPS A
LITTLE COOLER INTO THE EXTENDED...AS MODEL THICKNESSES HAVE DECREASED OVER
WHAT THEY WERE 24 HRS AGO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TREND THE THERMAL
RIDGE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST EACH DAY...TO ROUGHLY OVER KELP BY
MIDWEEK. THUS...A REPRIEVE ON THE WARMER TEMPS FOR NOW. WE/LL
BEGIN TRENDING DOWN...BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE MOS NUMBERS JUST YET.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK SCANT. MODELS BEGIN REBUILDING THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...W/THE LATEST
ECMWF DEVELOPING CONVECTION EACH DAY IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING
THURSDAY. WE/LL KEEP THE GRIDS DRY...BUT KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 66 98 59 96 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 73 98 60 97 / 0 0 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 67 94 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 99 67 98 / 0 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 69 97 61 96 / 0 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 61 95 55 92 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 53 86 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 97 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 72 98 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 63 100 62 98 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MARTIN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
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