Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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430
FXUS64 KMAF 280035
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
635 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast to get rid of the Wind Advisory and to change the
cloud cover for tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Winds have decreased below wind advisory conditions across the
plains so the Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire. Winds may
decrease briefly across the mountains overnight but are expected
to become stronger tomorrow so the High Wind Warning will continue
for the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. The cloud cover is greater
in coverage than was forecast across southeast New Mexico so have
adjusted the cloud grids.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016/

WV imagery shows a busy pattern across/approaching West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico this afternoon. A fetch of subtropical
moisture from the Pacific is overspreading mid/hi cloud across the
region, and playing hob w/mixing. This will likely render current
wind warnings/advisories a moot point, but we`ll let them ride out
in lieu of possible BINOVC later this afternoon.

A trough that moved thru the Four Corners this morning is now
ejecting into the upper Midwest, and all attention now turns to a
secondary trough over srn NV.  This feature will approach the area
overnight, and pass thru the CWA 12-15Z Monday.  A weak dryline
extends from about the Davis Mtns NE to Seminole, w/dewpoints
increasing eastward to the upper 50s along the eastern fringes of
the CWA.  Mesoanalysis shows only weak instability over the eastern
zones, w/a cap in place, and mid-lvl LRs under 7C/km.  However, 0-
6km deep lyr shear looks impressive, and if large-scale ascent ahead
of the trough can bust the cap, a few cells could develop over the
eastern zones later this afternoon/tonight.  We`ll opt not to
mention severe attm.

The trough will move thru the region early Monday, but it still
looks to be a windy day across the NW.  In addition, the incoming
trough should shunt most of this mid/hi cloud ESE, to allow for
better afternoon mixing.  Although the speed max rounding the base
of the trough will exit West Texas by 18Z, models keep the winds up
behind it during the afternoon.  forecast soundings mix to 750mb or
better by 18Z, where 30-40kt WNW winds are anticipated.  Current
wind warnings extend thru 00Z Tuesday, and still look to be in play.
Current wind advisories end at 00Z Monday.  However, a new advisory
will likely be needed Monday.  To avoid sowing confusing w/the
current one still in effect, we`ll let either the swing or mid shift
issue it after the current one expires.

Pac front tonight should cool temps to near-normal Monday, and below
normal Tuesday.  Tuesday night, a 3rd upper trough swings thru the
region, dropping a dry cold front into the area Wednesday for even
cooler temperatures Wednesday afternoon.  Wednesday/Thursday, a 4th
trough will drop out of the PacNW and is forecast to cut off over
the US/Mexico border near the CA/AZ border by 00Z Saturday.  This is
potentially shaping up to be a big event for next weekend, w/precip
developing in large-scale ascent over the region beginning Friday,
and continuing thru the weekend.  Forecast soundings suggest even a
little frozen precip will be possible in the Guadalupes and nrn Lea
County Saturday night.  Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  63  44  59 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  63  38  57 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         51  71  44  68 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  63  42  60 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  51  35  45 /  10  10   0  10
Hobbs                          40  59  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          38  59  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  62  43  58 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         47  62  43  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           44  64  39  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Monday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Monday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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