Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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258
FXUS64 KMAF 221335
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
835 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...As of 8:30 AM CDT Tuesday...have updated the
grids/forecast for the morning to remove most of the POPS. KMAF
radar as well as regional radars are indc a rapid decrease of
convection this morning. Will take a look at the aftn/evening
forecast after the models come in. One item of note is that the
12Z MAF sounding showed a significant decrease in mid level
moisture which could lead to less convective initiation this
afternoon.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Diminishing convection just
north of the CWA has sent an outflow boundary south into southeast
NM, briefly shifting winds to a northerly direction this morning
at HOB and CNM. Could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms once
again this afternoon and evening mainly across southeast New Mexico,
possibly affecting CNM and HOB. Confidence is too low at this time
to mention in the current forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast
winds remain in place through Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  75  99  75  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  77 101  78  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               103  75 102  73  /  30  30  10   0
DRYDEN TX                 101  80 103  80  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76  99  74  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  70  92  70  /  20  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   96  72  98  72  /  20  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   91  65  91  66  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  76 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  77 100  76  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  78 101  75  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

99/33
017
FXUS64 KMAF 221106
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Diminishing convection just
north of the CWA has sent an outflow boundary south into southeast
NM, briefly shifting winds to a northerly direction this morning
at HOB and CNM. Could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms once
again this afternoon and evening mainly across southeast New Mexico,
possibly affecting CNM and HOB. Confidence is too low at this time
to mention in the current forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast
winds remain in place through Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
530
FXUS64 KMAF 220908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  75  99  75  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  77 101  78  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               103  75 102  73  /  30  30  10   0
DRYDEN TX                 101  80 103  80  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76  99  74  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  70  92  70  /  20  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   96  72  98  72  /  30  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   91  65  91  66  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  76 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  77 100  76  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  78 101  75  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

27/67
445
FXUS64 KMAF 220510
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Could see isolated to
scattered thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon and evening
mainly across southeast New Mexico, possibly affecting CNM and HOB.
Confidence is too low at this time to mention in the current
forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast winds remain in place
through Tuesday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
convection popping in the usual spots such as the Davis Mtns...Big
Bend...and the Guadalupe Mtns. Temps have already warmed into the
90s with even a few 100+ readings.

A large upper ridge is located over Northern New Mexico. A lee
trough will remain over extreme West Texas/Eastern New Mexico.
This will serve as the focus for convection this aftn/evening as
well as Tuesday aftn/evening with the deep layer easterly flow
providing upslope conditions. The convection will be mainly
across the usual mountain locales...possibly moving into the New
Mexico Plains. Temps will be above normal...and with the abundant
low level moisture morning lows will stay near 80 along the Rio
Grande. Therefore...have kept the Heat Advisory going thru Wed
morning along the Rio Grande River Valley.

The ridge will strengthen by mid week with very hot temperatures
and dry conditions as mid level moisture becomes limited. There
will be widespread 100+ temps across the CWA...with 105+ along the
Rio Grande and the Trans Pecos regions. There could be enough low
level moisture with the easterly flow to keep overnight lows above
75 along the Rio Grande and Trans Pecos. The heat advisory might
need to be extended through the end of the week and even into the
weekend along the Rio Grande and possibly include the Trans Pecos.

The 12Z GFS is hinting at some relief from the very hot temperatures
.but not til early next week. Be careful with any outdoor
activities for the next seven days and drink plenty of water.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

27
459
FXUS64 KMAF 212203
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
503 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, under the influence of
an upper ridge centered north of the area. W/the exception of
KCNM/KHOB, current convection should stay west of other terminals
invof a sfc trough. This activity should begin diminishing shortly
as peak heating passes. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu
field most terminals by late morning Tuesday, w/bases 5-6 kft agl.
However, convection Tuesday afternoon should stay W and N.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
convection popping in the usual spots such as the Davis Mtns...Big
Bend...and the Guadalupe Mtns. Temps have already warmed into the
90s with even a few 100+ readings.

A large upper ridge is located over Northern New Mexico. A lee
trough will remain over extreme West Texas/Eastern New Mexico.
This will serve as the focus for convection this aftn/evening as
well as Tuesday aftn/evening with the deep layer easterly flow
providing upslope conditions. The convection will be mainly
across the usual mountain locales...possibly moving into the New
Mexico Plains. Temps will be above normal...and with the abundant
low level moisture morning lows will stay near 80 along the Rio
Grande. Therefore...have kept the Heat Advisory going thru Wed
morning along the Rio Grande River Valley.

The ridge will strengthen by mid week with very hot temperatures
and dry conditions as mid level moisture becomes limited. There
will be widespread 100+ temps across the CWA...with 105+ along the
Rio Grande and the Trans Pecos regions. There could be enough low
level moisture with the easterly flow to keep overnight lows above
75 along the Rio Grande and Trans Pecos. The heat advisory might
need to be extended through the end of the week and even into the
weekend along the Rio Grande and possibly include the Trans Pecos.

The 12Z GFS is hinting at some relief from the very hot temperatures
..but not til early next week. Be careful with any outdoor
activities for the next seven days and drink plenty of water.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

44
348
FXUS64 KMAF 211954
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
convection popping in the usual spots such as the Davis Mtns...Big
Bend...and the Guadalupe Mtns. Temps have already warmed into the
90s with even a few 100+ readings.

A large upper ridge is located over Northern New Mexico. A lee
trough will remain over extreme West Texas/Eastern New Mexico.
This will serve as the focus for convection this aftn/evening as
well as Tuesday aftn/evening with the deep layer easterly flow
providing upslope conditions. The convection will be mainly
across the usual mountain locales...possibly moving into the New
Mexico Plains. Temps will be above normal...and with the abundant
low level moisture morning lows will stay near 80 along the Rio
Grande. Therefore...have kept the Heat Advisory going thru Wed
morning along the Rio Grande River Valley.

The ridge will strengthen by mid week with very hot temperatures
and dry conditions as mid level moisture becomes limited. There
will be widespread 100+ temps across the CWA...with 105+ along the
Rio Grande and the Trans Pecos regions. There could be enough low
level moisture with the easterly flow to keep overnight lows above
75 along the Rio Grande and Trans Pecos. The heat advisory might
need to be extended through the end of the week and even into the
weekend along the Rio Grande and possibly include the Trans Pecos.

The 12Z GFS is hinting at some relief from the very hot temperatures
...but not til early next week. Be careful with any outdoor
activities for the next seven days and drink plenty of water.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  99  74  98  /  10  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              78  99  78  99  /   0  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                77 102  73 100  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  80 103  81 102  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           77 100  76  99  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  95  71  92  /  30  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   72  97  71  96  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   66  92  65  90  /  30  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    76  99  74  99  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  78  98  78  98  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    79 103  77 101  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

05/33
337
FXUS64 KMAF 211700
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at southeast New Mexico and southwest
Texas terminals through mid-day Tuesday. There is a slight chance
of thunderstorms mainly near the mountains of southeast New Mexico
and southwest Texas and nearby areas including PEQ and CNM. The
probability of occurrence of thunderstorms at these sites is too
low for inclusion in upcoming terminal forecasts. Winds in and
near these thunderstorms will be variable and gusty. Otherwise, no
significant weather is expected through mid-day Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and West
Texas TAF sites during the next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms which
develop this afternoon could affect kPEQ, KCNM, KINK and KHOB this
afternoon or evening.  However, probabilities are too low to include
in the current TAF issuance.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

Above normal temperatures are expected the next seven days
as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the
southern Rockies eastward to the southern Plains. At the
surface a lee trough is forecast to remain in place across
extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico many days through the next
week. More very intense heating along the surface trough with
upslope flow in the mountains combined with trapped mid level
moisture underneath the upper ridge should generate mainly
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains,
portions of the upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall both
today and Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures once
again will be around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande river from
southern Terrell county westward to the Big Bend and Presidio
valley. Will issue a heat advisory through 12Z Wednesday morning
due to high temperatures expected to be at or above 105 degrees
along the Rio Grande with low temperatures expected to be 75 to
80.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to strengthen
and mid level moisture will become limited. Precipitation chances
do not appear high enough at this time to mention in the weather
grids Wednesday through next Monday. Temperatures will continue
to be much above normal. The heat advisory may need to be expanded
both in time and location.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

05
643
FXUS64 KMAF 211052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and West
Texas TAF sites during the next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms which
develop this afternoon could affect kPEQ, KCNM, KINK and KHOB this
afternoon or evening.  However, probabilities are too low to include
in the current TAF issuance.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

Above normal temperatures are expected the next seven days
as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the
southern Rockies eastward to the southern Plains. At the
surface a lee trough is forecast to remain in place across
extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico many days through the next
week. More very intense heating along the surface trough with
upslope flow in the mountains combined with trapped mid level
moisture underneath the upper ridge should generate mainly
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains,
portions of the upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall both
today and Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures once
again will be around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande river from
southern Terrell county westward to the Big Bend and Presidio
valley. Will issue a heat advisory through 12Z Wednesday morning
due to high temperatures expected to be at or above 105 degrees
along the Rio Grande with low temperatures expected to be 75 to
80.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to strengthen
and mid level moisture will become limited. Precipitation chances
do not appear high enough at this time to mention in the weather
grids Wednesday through next Monday. Temperatures will continue
to be much above normal. The heat advisory may need to be expanded
both in time and location.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  99  72  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  73 102  68  /  20  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                 104  76 103  76  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  75 100  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          96  70  95  67  /  30  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   98  69  97  67  /  10  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   93  62  92  61  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  99  71  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  76  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   104  77 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

67/12
723
FXUS64 KMAF 210912
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
412 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next seven days
as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the
southern Rockies eastward to the southern Plains. At the
surface a lee trough is forecast to remain in place across
extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico many days through the next
week. More very intense heating along the surface trough with
upslope flow in the mountains combined with trapped mid level
moisture underneath the upper ridge should generate mainly
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains,
portions of the upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall both
today and Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures once
again will be around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande river from
southern Terrell county westward to the Big Bend and Presidio
valley. Will issue a heat advisory through 12Z Wednesday morning
due to high temperatures expected to be at or above 105 degrees
along the Rio Grande with low temperatures expected to be 75 to
80.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to strengthen
and mid level moisture will become limited. Precipitation chances
do not appear high enough at this time to mention in the weather
grids Wednesday through next Monday. Temperatures will continue
to be much above normal. The heat advisory may need to be expanded
both in time and location.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  99  72  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  73 102  68  /  20  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                 104  76 103  76  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  75 100  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          96  70  95  67  /  30  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   98  69  97  67  /  10  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   93  62  92  61  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  99  71  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  76  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   104  77 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

67/12
798
FXUS64 KMAF 210454
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1154 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and West
Texas TAF sites during the next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms which
develop this afternoon should stay west of all TAF sites.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

Summertime wx pattern will continue with the upper ridge the
controlling feature. The upper ridge was centered right over the
area this morning and will slowly shift off to the west by midweek
as it strengthens. 850mb temps are expected to climb through the
week pushing temperatures across the region back above 100 degree.

July has been cooler than June with no 100 degrees days recorded so
far this month at MAF.  However that is expected to change with
readings at or above the Century mark returning by Wednesday and
increasing through the end of the week.  Highs along the Rio Grande
valley should exceed 105 most of the week.  Overnight temps will
also be slow to fall off and be generally in the 70s.

Expect to see storms over the mountains again today and Monday...
radar indicates first echos already beginning to pop.  Low level
moisture remains high... had dewpts as high as 70 at MAF this
morning.  12Z MAF sounding had a PW over 1.5 inches which is very
wet for this far west.  Good moisture should continue as a S to
SE surface wind continues through the week with a leeside trough.
Storms that develop should be slow moving and will have potential
for locally heavy rain.  Rain chances begin decreasing on Tuesday
with not much precip expected through the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
953
FXUS64 KMAF 202156
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under upper lvl ridging.
Abundant moisture and low convective temps will result in a
widespread cu field developing by late morning Monday, w/bases 6-9
kft agl.  Otherwise, return flow continues.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Summertime wx pattern will continue with the upper ridge the
controlling feature.  The upper ridge was centered right over the
area this morning and will slowly shift off to the west by midweek
as it strengthens.  850mb temps are expected to climb through the
week pushing temperatures across the region back above 100 degree.

July has been cooler than June with no 100 degrees days recorded so
far this month at MAF.  However that is expected to change with
readings at or above the Century mark returning by Wednesday and
increasing through the end of the week.  Highs along the Rio Grande
valley should exceed 105 most of the week.  Overnight temps will
also be slow to fall off and be generally in the 70s.

Expect to see storms over the mountains again today and Monday...
radar indicates first echos already beginning to pop.  Low level
moisture remains high... had dewpts as high as 70 at MAF this
morning.  12Z MAF sounding had a PW over 1.5 inches which is very
wet for this far west.  Good moisture should continue as a S to
SE surface wind continues through the week with a leeside trough.
Storms that develop should be slow moving and will have potential
for locally heavy rain.  Rain chances begin decreasing on Tuesday
with not much precip expected through the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
182
FXUS64 KMAF 201834
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
134 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Summertime wx pattern will continue with the upper ridge the
controlling feature.  The upper ridge was centered right over the
area this morning and will slowly shift off to the west by midweek
as it strengthens.  850mb temps are expected to climb through the
week pushing temperatures across the region back above 100 degree.

July has been cooler than June with no 100 degrees days recorded so
far this month at MAF.  However that is expected to change with
readings at or above the Century mark returning by Wednesday and
increasing through the end of the week.  Highs along the Rio Grande
valley should exceed 105 most of the week.  Overnight temps will
also be slow to fall off and be generally in the 70s.

Expect to see storms over the mountains again today and Monday...
radar indicates first echos already beginning to pop.  Low level
moisture remains high... had dewpts as high as 70 at MAF this
morning.  12Z MAF sounding had a PW over 1.5 inches which is very
wet for this far west.  Good moisture should continue as a S to
SE surface wind continues through the week with a leeside trough.
Storms that develop should be slow moving and will have potential
for locally heavy rain.  Rain chances begin decreasing on Tuesday
with not much precip expected through the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  99  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              74  99  74  98  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                73 101  73 100  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  76 100  76  99  /  10   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75 101  74  99  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  94  70  95  /  30  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   71  98  71  98  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   65  93  62  93  /  30  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74  99  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  75  99  76  99  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    75 102  76 101  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/72
562
FXUS64 KMAF 201642
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are forecast through mid-day Monday. Though a few
low clouds could approach the Permian Basin early Monday morning,
it currently appears that low ceilings are not likely to be
observed across southeast New Mexico or southwest Texas, even at
MAF, through Monday morning. With abundant moisture across this
area, scattered convective clouds can be expected mainly this
afternoon along with a few high clouds. A few isolated
thunderstorms are possible mainly late afternoon through mid
evening, though the chance of occurrence is too low for mention in
area terminal forecasts. Thunderstorms will be more common in the
mountainous terrain. Any thunderstorms that develop could produce
strong and variable wind gusts. Otherwise, winds will generally be
south to southeast at less than 12 knots across the area through
Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Other than including temporary MVFR ceilings at KMAF, expect VFR
conditions to prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon, but expect the
bulk of the storms to stay west of the TAF sites, so will not
include at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next 7 days as an
upper level ridge builds across New Mexico and west Texas through
Tuesday and then shifts northwestward toward the 4 corners region
next Wednesday through Friday. At the surface a lee trough is
forecast to remain in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New
Mexico through early next week. Very intense heating along the
surface trough with upslope flow in the mountains combined with
weak trapped mid level moisture underneath the upper high should
generate mainly afternoon and evening isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast
New Mexico Plains, upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall today
and this evening when moisture will be greatest.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to shift toward
the four corners region. Precipitation chances will decrease as
the upper ridge takes the mid level moisture northwestward away
from the forecast area. Went with the warmer ECMWF temperatures
through the extended based on 850 millibar temperature forecast
consistency.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05
999
FXUS64 KMAF 201128
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Other than including temporary MVFR ceilings at KMAF, expect VFR
conditions to prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon, but expect the
bulk of the storms to stay west of the TAF sites, so will not
include at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next 7 days as an
upper level ridge builds across New Mexico and west Texas through
Tuesday and then shifts northwestward toward the 4 corners region
next Wednesday through Friday. At the surface a lee trough is
forecast to remain in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New
Mexico through early next week. Very intense heating along the
surface trough with upslope flow in the mountains combined with
weak trapped mid level moisture underneath the upper high should
generate mainly afternoon and evening isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast
New Mexico Plains, upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall today
and this evening when moisture will be greatest.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to shift toward
the four corners region. Precipitation chances will decrease as
the upper ridge takes the mid level moisture northwestward away
from the forecast area. Went with the warmer ECMWF temperatures
through the extended based on 850 millibar temperature forecast
consistency.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              98  72  98  74  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               102  68 101  69  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 102  74 102  75  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  73 100  73  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          97  67  95  69  /  30  30  20  20
HOBBS NM                   97  67  99  69  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   94  63  93  62  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  74  99  75  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                   102  75 102  75  /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
402
FXUS64 KMAF 200929
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
429 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next 7 days as an
upper level ridge builds across New Mexico and west Texas through
Tuesday and then shifts northwestward toward the 4 corners region
next Wednesday through Friday. At the surface a lee trough is
forecast to remain in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New
Mexico through early next week. Very intense heating along the
surface trough with upslope flow in the mountains combined with
weak trapped mid level moisture underneath the upper high should
generate mainly afternoon and evening isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast
New Mexico Plains, upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall today
and this evening when moisture will be greatest.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to shift toward
the four corners region. Precipitation chances will decrease as
the upper ridge takes the mid level moisture northwestward away
from the forecast area. Went with the warmer ECMWF temperatures
through the extended based on 850 millibar temperature forecast
consistency.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              98  72  98  74  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               102  68 101  69  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 102  74 102  75  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  73 100  73  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          97  67  95  69  /  30  30  20  20
HOBBS NM                   97  67  99  69  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   94  63  93  62  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  74  99  75  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                   102  75 102  75  /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
871
FXUS64 KMAF 200523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms could affect KCNM and KHOB through 20/09Z so have
included variable and gusty winds, in addition to TSRA and MVFR
visibility.  Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail areawide
through the day.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over West Texas,
courtesy of a west coast trough trying to muscle in thru Baja.
Yesterday, a MCS developed in N central NM and moved SSE, but died
out before making it into SE NM. Current models attempt to
replicate this scenario tonight, but suggest the MCS might make it
a little further SE. Otherwise, at the sfc, a trough extended from
SW NM ESE down into the Big Bend, and will serve as the focus of
isolated convection for the next couple of days as abundant
diurnal heating combines w/minor disturbances moving down thru the
ridge. Sfc trough is forecast to orient more N-S Sunday and
Monday, and remain over the western half of the CWA. Forecast
soundings look too warm for much hail development, but inverted-V
profiles suggest strong winds will remain a threat. In addition,
KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a PWAT of 1.31"...about 130% of normal.
Given nil steering flow under the ridge, heavy rain will be
possible as well.

Models dissolve the sfc trough by Tuesday and begin moving the upper
ridge NNW over the next week to the Four Corners vicinity.  While
this will spare West Texas/SE NM the worst of the heat, the thermal
ridge will still push H85 temps towards 30C, for widespread
triple-digits by Tuesday or so, and continuing into the
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
675
FXUS64 KMAF 192334
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions should remain VFR for all TAF locations through the period.
Have a few lingering storms from CNM to E38 but expect these to die
out in the next hour or two.  Not expecting as much low clouds in
the Permian Basin Sunday morning as past few days... only mentioned
SCT stratus at MAF around sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over West Texas, courtesy
of a west coast trough trying to muscle in thru Baja.  Yesterday, a
MCS developed in N central NM and moved SSE, but died out before
making it into SE NM.  Current models attempt to replicate this
scenario tonight, but suggest the MCS might make it a little further
SE.  Otherwise, at the sfc, a trough extended from SW NM ESE down
into the Big Bend, and will serve as the focus of isolated
convection for the next couple of days as abundant diurnal heating
combines w/minor disturbances moving down thru the ridge.  Sfc
trough is forecast to orient more N-S Sunday and Monday, and remain
over the western half of the CWA.  Forecast soundings look too warm
for much hail development, but inverted-V profiles suggest strong
winds will remain a threat.  In addition, KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a
PWAT of 1.31"...about 130% of normal.  Given nil steering flow under
the ridge, heavy rain will be possible as well.

Models dissolve the sfc trough by Tuesday and begin moving the upper
ridge NNW over the next week to the Four Corners vicinity.  While
this will spare West Texas/SE NM the worst of the heat, the thermal
ridge will still push H85 temps towards 30C, for widespread
triple-digits by Tuesday or so, and continuing into the
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
929
FXUS64 KMAF 191921
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
221 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over West Texas, courtesy
of a west coast trough trying to muscle in thru Baja.  Yesterday, a
MCS developed in N central NM and moved SSE, but died out before
making it into SE NM.  Current models attempt to replicate this
scenario tonight, but suggest the MCS might make it a little further
SE.  Otherwise, at the sfc, a trough extended from SW NM ESE down
into the Big Bend, and will serve as the focus of isolated
convection for the next couple of days as abundant diurnal heating
combines w/minor disturbances moving down thru the ridge.  Sfc
trough is forecast to orient more N-S Sunday and Monday, and remain
over the western half of the CWA.  Forecast soundings look too warm
for much hail development, but inverted-V profiles suggest strong
winds will remain a threat.  In addition, KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a
PWAT of 1.31"...about 130% of normal.  Given nil steering flow under
the ridge, heavy rain will be possible as well.

Models dissolve the sfc trough by Tuesday and begin moving the upper
ridge NNW over the next week to the Four Corners vicinity.  While
this will spare West Texas/SE NM the worst of the heat, the thermal
ridge will still push H85 temps towards 30C, for widespread
triple-digits by Tuesday or so, and continuing into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  97  72  97  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  99  71  98  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                73  98  71  98  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  75  98  73  96  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  99  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  88  73  89  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   70  92  68  96  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   62  89  64  89  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  98  72  98  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  74  97  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    75  98  73 101  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/44
695
FXUS64 KMAF 191709
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1209 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
By 18 today, low ceilings ha burned off across southeast New
Mexico an southwest Texas leaving only a few low clouds in the
Permian Basin and few high clouds over southwest Texas. During the
afternoon, scattered low clouds will develop and a few thunderstorms
are possible over the mountains of southwest Texas and over
southeast New Mexico. The chance of thunderstorms is too low to
include in terminal forecasts across this area. Skies will remain
generally scattered overnight with a few low clouds developing
near the Permian Basin. Due to the influence of high pressure
building aloft, ceilings are not expected. VFR conditions will
continue through 18Z Sunday. Winds will generally be south to
southeast at 12 knots or less, though occasional gusts below 20
knows are possible.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings are developing/spreading across west Texas into
southeast New Mexico, so will carry at all TAF sites through at
least 19/15Z.  Expect VFR conditions thereafter, however
thunderstorms will be possible at kCNM, KPEQ, KINK and KHOB.
Since probabilities are so low, will not include at any of these
sites at this time.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

Above normal temperatures will return to the forecast area for
the next 7 days as an upper level ridge builds across New Mexico
and west Texas. At the surface a lee trough is forecast to remain
in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico through
early next week. Very intense heating along the surface trough in
the mountains combined with weak disturbances moving south within
the upper ridge should generate mainly afternoon and evening
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, upper Trans
Pecos and portions of the western Permian Basin most days through
Tuesday.

Beyond next Tuesday went with a dry forecast for now for the
remainder of the extended forecast through next Saturday. Will be
monitoring next Wednesday for a possible frontal passage and
increase chance of precipitation depicted on the ECMWF and CMC, but
confidence was not high for this scenario at this time. For next
Thursday through Saturday the upper ridge is forecast to drift
north across New Mexico with easterly flow aloft in place across
the region. Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential
of isolated storms in the mountains. Temperatures will continue
above normal next Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05
173
FXUS64 KMAF 191101
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings are developing/spreading across west Texas into
southeast New Mexico, so will carry at all TAF sites through at
least 19/15Z.  Expect VFR conditions thereafter, however
thunderstorms will be possible at kCNM, KPEQ, KINK and KHOB.
Since probabilities are so low, will not include at any of these
sites at this time.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

Above normal temperatures will return to the forecast area for
the next 7 days as an upper level ridge builds across New Mexico
and west Texas. At the surface a lee trough is forecast to remain
in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico through
early next week. Very intense heating along the surface trough in
the mountains combined with weak disturbances moving south within
the upper ridge should generate mainly afternoon and evening
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, upper Trans
Pecos and portions of the western Permian Basin most days through
Tuesday.

Beyond next Tuesday went with a dry forecast for now for the
remainder of the extended forecast through next Saturday. Will be
monitoring next Wednesday for a possible frontal passage and
increase chance of precipitation depicted on the ECMWF and CMC, but
confidence was not high for this scenario at this time. For next
Thursday through Saturday the upper ridge is forecast to drift
north across New Mexico with easterly flow aloft in place across
the region. Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential
of isolated storms in the mountains. Temperatures will continue
above normal next Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  73  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              95  72  97  73  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               100  70 102  70  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  99  74 101  75  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76 100  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  69  93  68  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   96  69  97  71  /  20  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   90  64  91  63  /  30  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  97  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   100  77 103  77  /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
957
FXUS64 KMAF 190923
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
423 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures will return to the forecast area for
the next 7 days as an upper level ridge builds across New Mexico
and west Texas. At the surface a lee trough is forecast to remain
in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico through
early next week. Very intense heating along the surface trough
in the mountains combined with weak disturbances moving south
within the upper ridge should generate mainly afternoon and
evening isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains,
upper Trans Pecos and portions of the western Permian Basin
most days through Tuesday.

Beyond next Tuesday went with a dry forecast for now for the
remainder of the extended forecast through next Saturday. Will be
monitoring next Wednesday for a possible frontal passage and
increase chance of precipitation depicted on the ECMWF and CMC, but
confidence was not high for this scenario at this time. For next
Thursday through Saturday the upper ridge is forecast to drift
north across New Mexico with easterly flow aloft in place across
the region. Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential
of isolated storms in the mountains. Temperatures will continue
above normal next Wednesday through Friday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  73  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              95  72  97  73  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               100  70 102  70  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  99  74 101  75  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76 100  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  69  93  68  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   96  69  97  71  /  20  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   90  64  91  63  /  30  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  97  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   100  77 103  77  /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12
334
FXUS64 KMAF 190440
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1140 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail most of the night across southeast New
Mexico and west Texas.  However, MVFR ceilings are expected to
develop late tonight and affect all TAF sites through at least
19/15Z.  Thereafter, VFR conditions will prevail again while
southeasterly surface winds of 15kt or less are expected at all TAF
sites.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014/

Afternoon storms are developing once again across the Big Bend and
Davis Mountains though overall coverage will be less than seen the
past couple of days. Clouds and cool air over the Permian Basin
will ensure the best instability will remain west of the Pecos
River today. Shear values are fairly low so the severe threat
appears minimal with heavy rain leading to localized flash
flooding being the primary threat.

An upper level high will build north out of Mexico over the
weekend keeping convection in the western CWA Saturday then just
about eliminating it on Sunday. Increasing subsidence will bring
an end to the recent pleasant temperatures and reminding us that
it is still July. Temps will approach or exceed 100 across much of
the area Sunday and Monday and may approach Heat Advisory levels
in the Pecos River and Rio Grande valleys. The high center will
continue to move north by the middle of next week bringing deep
easterly flow to west Texas and eastern New Mexico. This should
help cool temperatures slightly though they will remain above
normal the end of the forecast period.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
189
FXUS64 KMAF 182328
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A surface trough west of the area will keep the wind out of the E
to SE through the TAF period.  May see return of low clouds around
sunrise with MVFR cigs possible at MAF and HOB.  Could see some
afternoon storms from CNM to MRF but did not mention in the TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Afternoon storms are developing once again across the Big Bend and
Davis Mountains though overall coverage will be less than seen the
past couple of days. Clouds and cool air over the Permian Basin
will ensure the best instability will remain west of the Pecos
River today. Shear values are fairly low so the severe threat
appears minimal with heavy rain leading to localized flash
flooding being the primary threat.

An upper level high will build north out of Mexico over the
weekend keeping convection in the western CWA Saturday then just
about eliminating it on Sunday. Increasing subsidence will bring
an end to the recent pleasant temperatures and reminding us that
it is still July. Temps will approach or exceed 100 across much of
the area Sunday and Monday and may approach Heat Advisory levels
in the Pecos River and Rio Grande valleys. The high center will
continue to move north by the middle of next week bringing deep
easterly flow to west Texas and eastern New Mexico. This should
help cool temperatures slightly though they will remain above
normal the end of the forecast period.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
641
FXUS64 KMAF 181919
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
219 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon storms are developing once again across the Big Bend and
Davis Mountains though overall coverage will be less than seen the
past couple of days. Clouds and cool air over the Permian Basin
will ensure the best instability will remain west of the Pecos
River today. Shear values are fairly low so the severe threat
appears minimal with heavy rain leading to localized flash
flooding being the primary threat.

An upper level high will build north out of Mexico over the
weekend keeping convection in the western CWA Saturday then just
about eliminating it on Sunday. Increasing subsidence will bring
an end to the recent pleasant temperatures and reminding us that
it is still July. Temps will approach or exceed 100 across much of
the area Sunday and Monday and may approach Heat Advisory levels
in the Pecos River and Rio Grande valleys. The high center will
continue to move north by the middle of next week bringing deep
easterly flow to west Texas and eastern New Mexico. This should
help cool temperatures slightly though they will remain above
normal the end of the forecast period.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  95  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              70  94  74  97  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                71  99  73 100  /  10  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  74  98  75 101  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  97  74 100  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  91  69  93  /  20  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   68  95  71  97  /  10  20  20  10
MARFA TX                   64  89  66  91  /  30  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  95  74  99  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  72  96  74  99  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    73 100  76 103  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10
979
FXUS64 KMAF 181747
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1247 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS will gradually improve during the afternoon, becoming
VFR after 21Z at TAF locations. As surface high pressure slides
east of the area, surface winds will become southeast to south across
the area this afternoon. MVFR or IFR ceilings are expected to
redevelop at KMAF Saturday morning. KHOB, KFST, and KINK could
also see low clouds but to a lesser extent. Shower and
thunderstorm development will remain mostly west of TAF locations later
this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014/

The cold front has pushed all the way to the Rio Grande this
morning aided by widespread convection across the area yesterday.
We are looking at a pretty nice day for mid July with high
temperatures 5-10 degrees below average. Low level moisture along
with easterly upslope flow should allow for convection to fire
this afternoon in the higher terrain of the Davis and Guadalupe
Mtns. The upper ridge begins to build in from the west Saturday
with warming temperatures and diminishing precip chances. Saturday
will not be all that bad yet with highs near normal, but by Sunday
into Monday the upper ridge becomes more established centering
itself over eastern NM. This will send most locations into the
triple digits with areas along the Rio Grande possibly needing a
Heat Advisory early next week. It appears that enough moisture
will be around for a few isolated storms each afternoon in the
Davis Mtns through about midweek before drier air invades from the
east. Have also kept isolated PoPs for Saturday afternoon across
SE NM as a weak upper disturbance moves south over the area.
Otherwise, expect dry and hot conditions next week as the upper
high stays in control of our weather.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03
192
FXUS64 KMAF 181107
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
607 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings have developed over portions of the area this morning,
the viewing of which on satellite imagery is being obstructed by
more extensive mid and high clouds.  Have included MVFR ceilings at
all area TAF sites, in addition to temporary IFR ceilings near 1 kft
until the 18/15Z to 18/18Z timeframe when they begin to lift.  Fog
development is not favored considering the extensive cloud cover so
will not include at any TAF sites.  Expect VFR conditions this
afternoon and tonight.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014/

The cold front has pushed all the way to the Rio Grande this
morning aided by widespread convection across the area yesterday.
We are looking at a pretty nice day for mid July with high
temperatures 5-10 degrees below average. Low level moisture along
with easterly upslope flow should allow for convection to fire
this afternoon in the higher terrain of the Davis and Guadalupe
Mtns. The upper ridge begins to build in from the west Saturday
with warming temperatures and diminishing precip chances. Saturday
will not be all that bad yet with highs near normal, but by Sunday
into Monday the upper ridge becomes more established centering
itself over eastern NM. This will send most locations into the
triple digits with areas along the Rio Grande possibly needing a
Heat Advisory early next week. It appears that enough moisture
will be around for a few isolated storms each afternoon in the
Davis Mtns through about midweek before drier air invades from the
east. Have also kept isolated PoPs for Saturday afternoon across
SE NM as a weak upper disturbance moves south over the area.
Otherwise, expect dry and hot conditions next week as the upper
high stays in control of our weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  69  95  73  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              86  73  96  75  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                91  71  99  72  /  10  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  93  76  98  78  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           90  73  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          85  68  92  69  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   87  68  94  70  /  10  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   85  61  90  62  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    87  71  95  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  88  72  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    93  74 100  76  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29
614
FXUS64 KMAF 180905
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
405 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The cold front has pushed all the way to the Rio Grande this morning
aided by widespread convection across the area yesterday. We are
looking at a pretty nice day for mid July with high temperatures
5-10 degrees below average. Low level moisture along with easterly
upslope flow should allow for convection to fire this afternoon in
the higher terrain of the Davis and Guadalupe Mnts. The upper ridge
begins to build in from the west Saturday with warming temperatures
and diminishing precip chances. Saturday will not be all that bad
yet with highs near normal, but by Sunday into Monday the upper
ridge becomes more established centering itself over eastern NM.
This will send most locations into the triple digits with areas
along the Rio Grande possibly needing a Heat Advisory early next
week. It appears that enough moisture will be around for a few
isolated storms each afternoon in the Davis Mnts through about
midweek before drier air invades from the east. Have also kept
isolated PoPs for Saturday afternoon across SE NM as a weak upper
disturbance moves south over the area. Otherwise, expect dry and hot
conditions next week as the upper high stays in control of our
weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  69  95  73  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              86  73  96  75  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                91  71  99  72  /  10  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  93  76  98  78  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           90  73  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          85  68  92  69  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   87  68  94  70  /  10  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   85  61  90  62  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    87  71  95  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  88  72  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    93  74 100  76  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29
868
FXUS64 KMAF 180504
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect MVFR and IFR ceilings to develop over much of southeast New
Mexico overnight.  Scattered thunderstorms coming off the higher
terrain, along with mid and high cloud spreading over the region
will complicate the low cloud development.  Will carry lower
ceilings at all TAF sites, which should scatter out around 18/15Z.
If more breaks in the clouds occur through 18/12Z, fog may form, but
have not included any at this time.  VFR conditions are expected
from late morning through the afternoon.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
931
FXUS64 KMAF 180209 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
909 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
We have sent an update to the forecast to decrease PoPs especially
n of the Pecos River. Isolated PoPs to the west with tstms still
moving swd near the mtns and showers/tstms still lingering across
the far s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs
possible at most terminals Friday morning. Currently, conditions
have improved and all TAF sites are VFR. Thunderstorms remain
confined to the higher terrain and Big Bend regions this evening,
currently not affecting any terminals. There are a few thunderstorms
that have popped up across SE NM so will continue to monitor radar
trends and amend when needed. Generally northeast winds across the
region and expect light easterly winds through the TAF period.
Thinking at least MVFR (possibly IFR) cigs will return early Friday
morning and stick around through mid morning. Currently have mention
at all but PEQ and FST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is a broad upper trough over the eastern half of the conus
with a shortwave currently moving over Oklahoma on the backside of
this upper trough.  This shortwave is sending a cold front southward
toward the CWA this afternoon.  Upper level lift is being enhanced
over the region as a result of shortwaves moving over/near the
area.  The cold front, which is entering into the northern CWA, will
enhance lift as well.  There is an abundance of moisture across the
area, so showers and thunderstorms are currently developing and
moving across the CWA.  Some of these storms have the potential to
become severe with CAPE values forecast to be well over 1000 J/Kg
and 0 to 6 km bulk shear around 30 kts.  Gusty winds, hail, and
brief heavy rain will be the main threats with these storms.  High
temperatures today will be highly dependent upon the timing of the
front and the amount of sunshine.

The cold front will finish pushing through the area tonight ending
up against the higher terrain by Friday afternoon.  This will be the
main area for showers and thunderstorms, along with the Lower Trans
Pecos, on Friday as the upper trough moves eastward.  A lee surface
trough will be present across far West Texas and eastern New Mexico
so this will aid in lift for thunderstorm development. Cooler
temperatures will be present across the area on Friday with highs
about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

The upper trough and main area of upper lift will be east of the
region by Saturday, so precipitation chances will begin to
decrease.  Although the area will be in west to northwest flow aloft
with a surface trough present, shortwaves may move down over the
area and provide enough lift for thunderstorm development.
Generally expect storms on Saturday to be confined to the higher
terrain, but convection may occur across the northeast CWA as a
shortwave approaches.  Temperatures are expected to warm up to above
normal values beginning on Saturday as upper ridging builds over the
area.  Many places will experience temperatures in the triple digits
over the weekend.  Temperatures will remain hot through early next
week as the upper ridge dominates the weather pattern.  Due to this
ridge, expect thunderstorm chances to remain across the higher
terrain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  88  70  98  /  10  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              65  86  71  97  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  92  70 100  /  10  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  76  94  77  97  /  30  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  90  73  98  /  20  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  88  69  93  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   64  87  69  97  /  10  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   60  86  62  92  /  20  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  89  71  98  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  67  88  72  99  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    69  93  74 102  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
414
FXUS64 KMAF 172329
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be low cigs
possible at most terminals Friday morning. Currently, conditions
have improved and all TAF sites are VFR. Thunderstorms remain
confined to the higher terrain and Big Bend regions this evening,
currently not affecting any terminals. There are a few thunderstorms
that have popped up across SE NM so will continue to monitor radar
trends and amend when needed. Generally northeast winds across the
region and expect light easterly winds through the TAF period.
Thinking at least MVFR (possibly IFR) cigs will return early Friday
morning and stick around through mid morning. Currently have mention
at all but PEQ and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is a broad upper trough over the eastern half of the conus
with a shortwave currently moving over Oklahoma on the backside of
this upper trough.  This shortwave is sending a cold front southward
toward the CWA this afternoon.  Upper level lift is being enhanced
over the region as a result of shortwaves moving over/near the
area.  The cold front, which is entering into the northern CWA, will
enhance lift as well.  There is an abundance of moisture across the
area, so showers and thunderstorms are currently developing and
moving across the CWA.  Some of these storms have the potential to
become severe with CAPE values forecast to be well over 1000 J/Kg
and 0 to 6 km bulk shear around 30 kts.  Gusty winds, hail, and
brief heavy rain will be the main threats with these storms.  High
temperatures today will be highly dependent upon the timing of the
front and the amount of sunshine.

The cold front will finish pushing through the area tonight ending
up against the higher terrain by Friday afternoon.  This will be the
main area for showers and thunderstorms, along with the Lower Trans
Pecos, on Friday as the upper trough moves eastward.  A lee surface
trough will be present across far West Texas and eastern New Mexico
so this will aid in lift for thunderstorm development. Cooler
temperatures will be present across the area on Friday with highs
about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

The upper trough and main area of upper lift will be east of the
region by Saturday, so precipitation chances will begin to
decrease.  Although the area will be in west to northwest flow aloft
with a surface trough present, shortwaves may move down over the
area and provide enough lift for thunderstorm development.
Generally expect storms on Saturday to be confined to the higher
terrain, but convection may occur across the northeast CWA as a
shortwave approaches.  Temperatures are expected to warm up to above
normal values beginning on Saturday as upper ridging builds over the
area.  Many places will experience temperatures in the triple digits
over the weekend.  Temperatures will remain hot through early next
week as the upper ridge dominates the weather pattern.  Due to this
ridge, expect thunderstorm chances to remain across the higher
terrain.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27
296
FXUS64 KMAF 171931
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

There is a broad upper trough over the eastern half of the conus
with a shortwave currently moving over Oklahoma on the backside of
this upper trough.  This shortwave is sending a cold front southward
toward the CWA this afternoon.  Upper level lift is being enhanced
over the region as a result of shortwaves moving over/near the
area.  The cold front, which is entering into the northern CWA, will
enhance lift as well.  There is an abundance of moisture across the
area, so showers and thunderstorms are currently developing and
moving across the CWA.  Some of these storms have the potential to
become severe with CAPE values forecast to be well over 1000 J/Kg
and 0 to 6 km bulk shear around 30 kts.  Gusty winds, hail, and
brief heavy rain will be the main threats with these storms.  High
temperatures today will be highly dependent upon the timing of the
front and the amount of sunshine.

The cold front will finish pushing through the area tonight ending
up against the higher terrain by Friday afternoon.  This will be the
main area for showers and thunderstorms, along with the Lower Trans
Pecos, on Friday as the upper trough moves eastward.  A lee surface
trough will be present across far West Texas and eastern New Mexico
so this will aid in lift for thunderstorm development. Cooler
temperatures will be present across the area on Friday with highs
about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

The upper trough and main area of upper lift will be east of the
region by Saturday, so precipitation chances will begin to
decrease.  Although the area will be in west to northwest flow aloft
with a surface trough present, shortwaves may move down over the
area and provide enough lift for thunderstorm development.
Generally expect storms on Saturday to be confined to the higher
terrain, but convection may occur across the northeast CWA as a
shortwave approaches.  Temperatures are expected to warm up to above
normal values beginning on Saturday as upper ridging builds over the
area.  Many places will experience temperatures in the triple digits
over the weekend.  Temperatures will remain hot through early next
week as the upper ridge dominates the weather pattern.  Due to this
ridge, expect thunderstorm chances to remain across the higher
terrain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  88  70  98  /  40  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              65  86  71  97  /  50  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  92  70 100  /  20  20  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  76  94  77  97  /  40  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  90  73  98  /  50  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  88  69  93  /  30  30  20  20
HOBBS NM                   64  87  69  97  /  20  20  10  20
MARFA TX                   60  86  62  92  /  40  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  89  71  98  /  40  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  67  88  72  99  /  40  10  10  10
WINK TX                    69  93  74 102  /  40  20  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/80
275
FXUS64 KMAF 171742
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers are diminishing across the area and additional development
will depend on whether skies can clear to provide needed
instability. Given the amount of current cloud cover will leave TS
out of all TAFs for now and amend if needed. MVFR CIGs currently
at HOB will spread to MAF but considerable uncertainty in when
that will occur. Current obs showing SCT016 and this could easily
become BKN within the hour requiring an amendment, though
conditions should improve later this afternoon with another round
of lower CIGS later tonight.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

As expected, a large convective system is rolling across the Red
River Valley this morning with an outflow boundary trailing to its
southwest. This boundary will play a roll in what happens later
today as it will be a focus for convection. It appears the boundary
will settle along or just south of the I-20 corridor by early this
afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front was sliding south across the TX
PH as an associated shortwave moves into OK. This front will
continue to move south today and likely catch up to the remnant
outflow boundary over our area. Showers and storms will fire along
the front and move southeast within NW flow aloft. Strong heating
south of the front will allow CAPE values to reach in excess of 2500
J/kg. This combined with decent deep layer shear will create a
potential for a few storms to become severe with large hail and
damaging winds. The most favored area for convection will be the
eastern Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

The cold front will push south tonight settling against the higher
terrain. Will maintain a chance for storms along and south of the
Pecos River Friday as upslope flow along with the frontal boundary
provide sufficient lift. Temperatures will cool behind the front and
make for a pleasant July day (except for folks along the Rio Grande
who will remain south of the front). Expect afternoon high temps to
be around 10 degrees below average.

By Saturday, the upper ridge really begins to build in and
strengthen across the area. This means rain chances will diminish
(except for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains) and temperatures will
soar into the upper 90s and triple digits. Depending on where the
center of the ridge sets up, there may be a chance for a disturbance
or two to affect us from the north. Will keep PoPs low for now as
long range models continue to struggle with the strength of the
ridge next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10
050
FXUS64 KMAF 171007
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
507 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014

.AVIATION...

Area radars show spotty convection invof KFST/KINK, while up
north, a cold front continues moving south, spawning convection
along/behind it. Latest models still bringing the front into KHOB
at around 15Z...and thru KFST 00Z. Prefer to hold off introducing
convection along the front later today, as models have had a poor
grasp on the situation the past couple of days. Forecast soundings
develop a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases 4.5-6kft
agl. Buffer soundings hint at post-frontal stratus moving in at
KMAF/KFST near the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

As expected, a large convective system is rolling across the Red
River Valley this morning with an outflow boundary trailing to its
southwest. This boundary will play a roll in what happens later
today as it will be a focus for convection. It appears the boundary
will settle along or just south of the I-20 corridor by early this
afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front was sliding south across the TX
PH as an associated shortwave moves into OK. This front will
continue to move south today and likely catch up to the remnant
outflow boundary over our area. Showers and storms will fire along
the front and move southeast within NW flow aloft. Strong heating
south of the front will allow CAPE values to reach in excess of 2500
J/kg. This combined with decent deep layer shear will create a
potential for a few storms to become severe with large hail and
damaging winds. The most favored area for convection will be the
eastern Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

The cold front will push south tonight settling against the higher
terrain. Will maintain a chance for storms along and south of the
Pecos River Friday as upslope flow along with the frontal boundary
provide sufficient lift. Temperatures will cool behind the front and
make for a pleasant July day (except for folks along the Rio Grande
who will remain south of the front). Expect afternoon high temps to
be around 10 degrees below average.

By Saturday, the upper ridge really begins to build in and
strengthen across the area. This means rain chances will diminish
(except for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains) and temperatures will
soar into the upper 90s and triple digits. Depending on where the
center of the ridge sets up, there may be a chance for a disturbance
or two to affect us from the north. Will keep PoPs low for now as
long range models continue to struggle with the strength of the
ridge next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
981
FXUS64 KMAF 170916
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
416 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

As expected, a large convective system is rolling across the Red
River Valley this morning with an outflow boundary trailing to its
southwest. This boundary will play a roll in what happens later
today as it will be a focus for convection. It appears the boundary
will settle along or just south of the I-20 corridor by early this
afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front was sliding south across the TX
PH as an associated shortwave moves into OK. This front will
continue to move south today and likely catch up to the remnant
outflow boundary over our area. Showers and storms will fire along
the front and move southeast within NW flow aloft. Strong heating
south of the front will allow CAPE values to reach in excess of 2500
J/kg. This combined with decent deep layer shear will create a
potential for a few storms to become severe with large hail and
damaging winds. The most favored area for convection will be the
eastern Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

The cold front will push south tonight settling against the higher
terrain. Will maintain a chance for storms along and south of the
Pecos River Friday as upslope flow along with the frontal boundary
provide sufficient lift. Temperatures will cool behind the front and
make for a pleasant July day (except for folks along the Rio Grande
who will remain south of the front). Expect afternoon high temps to
be around 10 degrees below average.

By Saturday, the upper ridge really begins to build in and
strengthen across the area. This means rain chances will diminish
(except for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains) and temperatures will
soar into the upper 90s and triple digits. Depending on where the
center of the ridge sets up, there may be a chance for a disturbance
or two to affect us from the north. Will keep PoPs low for now as
long range models continue to struggle with the strength of the
ridge next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 91  65  87  70  /  40  40  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              92  68  85  73  /  60  50  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                95  69  92  70  /  20  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 100  78  96  78  /  30  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  69  89  74  /  50  50  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  63  85  68  /  20  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   91  64  87  69  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   87  63  86  62  /  40  40  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  66  88  71  /  40  40  10  10
ODESSA TX                  92  67  88  72  /  40  40  10  10
WINK TX                    95  69  93  75  /  40  40  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29
568
FXUS64 KMAF 170544
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1244 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014

.AVIATION...

Area radars show main batch of earlier convection leaving the area
to the SE, while up north, a line of storms is entering the S.
Plains along a cold front. Latest models bring the front into KHOB
at around 15Z...and thru KFST 00Z. Prefer to hold off introducing
convection along the front later today, as models have had a poor
grasp on the situation the past couple of days. Forecast soundings
develop a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases 6-7kft agl.
Buffer soundings hint at post-frontal stratus moving in near 12Z
Friday, but this would be beyond this forecast pd.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 17/00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

AVIATION...

Complicated and messy forecast. A linear MCS east of all terminals
has pushed an outflow boundary northwest through MAF and just
about to INK. Additional TSRA has moved off the higher terrain west
of the Pecos and should be enough to warrant a TEMPO for MAF, INK,
PEQ, and FST. After PBL stabilization later this evening the TSRA
around the region should wane. However, a large MCS -- perhaps
developing now southeast of Raton Mesa -- will track southeastward
across the Panhandle, southwestern Oklahoma, and north central
Texas by tomorrow afternoon. This in turn will send an outflow
boundary/front into the Permian Basin sometime Thursday afternoon.
This boundary may then provide focus for additional thunderstorm
development, some strong to severe per the last SWODY1 from SPC.
Don`t have confidence right now in placement of this boundary this
far out, nor do we have confidence in putting even a PROB30 at any
one terminal at this time. Surface winds through the next 6 hours
will be tricky enough. So -- outside of TSRA, expect VFR conditions
and southeasterly winds of 10 to 20 mph with locally higher
gusts. INVOF TSRA, MVFR conditions will be likely with variable
gusty winds over 30 kts along with associated turbulence.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper level trough is over the eastern 2/3 of the country
with the CWA on the backside of this trough under northwest flow
aloft.  Various shortwaves are and will move over the area in this
northwest flow.  Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving across the Davis Mountains and surrounding
area, and a surface trough is present across southwest Texas and
eastern New Mexico.  Gusty winds and brief heavy rain will be the
main threats with these storms although an isolated severe storm is
possible across the northern Permian Basin where CAPE and bulk shear
values are higher.  Temperatures this afternoon are only expected to
be slightly warmer than those yesterday afternoon.

On Thursday, a shortwave rounding the base of the upper trough is
expected to move over Oklahoma and send a cold front southward into
the CWA during the afternoon.  This will enhance lift over the
region so scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Thursday.  Severe storms will be possible across the northern and
eastern CWA where CAPE values will be over 1000 J/Kg and 0 to 6 km
bulk shear values will be 35 to 45 kts per the NAM12.  The lacking
factor will be the mid-level lapse rates which will struggle to
reach 7 degrees C/km.  High temperatures tomorrow will be tricky to
pinpoint due to the timing of the front and amount of cloud cover
and precipitation.

The upper trough will begin to move eastward on Friday and the cold
front will finish pushing through the area Friday morning.
Development of showers and thunderstorms will mainly occur along the
front as it moves south, so most convection should be confined to
the higher terrain and along the Rio Grande by Friday evening.  Some
strong storms with gusty winds will be possible in this area with
CAPE values remaining high along the front.  Temperatures will be
about 10 degrees below normal on Friday with the surface ridge in
close proximity to the area.

An upper ridge will build over the region beginning on Saturday so
thunderstorm chances will mainly be confined to the higher terrain
of West Texas and southeast New Mexico.  Temperatures will begin to
warm up across the area as a result of the ridge.  Many places will
see triple digits temperatures beginning on Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
263
FXUS64 KMAF 162340
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
640 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 17/00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Complicated and messy forecast. A linear MCS east of all terminals
has pushed an outflow boundary northwest through MAF and just
about to INK. Additional TSRA has moved off the higher terrain west
of the Pecos and should be enough to warrant a TEMPO for MAF, INK,
PEQ, and FST. After PBL stabilization later this evening the TSRA
around the region should wane. However, a large MCS -- perhaps
developing now southeast of Raton Mesa -- will track southeastward
across the Panhandle, southwestern Oklahoma, and north central
Texas by tomorrow afternoon. This in turn will send an outflow
boundary/front into the Permian Basin sometime Thursday afternoon.
This boundary may then provide focus for additional thunderstorm
development, some strong to severe per the last SWODY1 from SPC.
Don`t have confidence right now in placement of this boundary this
far out, nor do we have confidence in putting even a PROB30 at any
one terminal at this time. Surface winds through the next 6 hours
will be tricky enough. So -- outside of TSRA, expect VFR conditions
and southeasterly winds of 10 to 20 mph with locally higher
gusts. INVOF TSRA, MVFR conditions will be likely with variable
gusty winds over 30 kts along with associated turbulence.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper level trough is over the eastern 2/3 of the country
with the CWA on the backside of this trough under northwest flow
aloft.  Various shortwaves are and will move over the area in this
northwest flow.  Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving across the Davis Mountains and surrounding
area, and a surface trough is present across southwest Texas and
eastern New Mexico.  Gusty winds and brief heavy rain will be the
main threats with these storms although an isolated severe storm is
possible across the northern Permian Basin where CAPE and bulk shear
values are higher.  Temperatures this afternoon are only expected to
be slightly warmer than those yesterday afternoon.

On Thursday, a shortwave rounding the base of the upper trough is
expected to move over Oklahoma and send a cold front southward into
the CWA during the afternoon.  This will enhance lift over the
region so scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Thursday.  Severe storms will be possible across the northern and
eastern CWA where CAPE values will be over 1000 J/Kg and 0 to 6 km
bulk shear values will be 35 to 45 kts per the NAM12.  The lacking
factor will be the mid-level lapse rates which will struggle to
reach 7 degrees C/km.  High temperatures tomorrow will be tricky to
pinpoint due to the timing of the front and amount of cloud cover
and precipitation.

The upper trough will begin to move eastward on Friday and the cold
front will finish pushing through the area Friday morning.
Development of showers and thunderstorms will mainly occur along the
front as it moves south, so most convection should be confined to
the higher terrain and along the Rio Grande by Friday evening.  Some
strong storms with gusty winds will be possible in this area with
CAPE values remaining high along the front.  Temperatures will be
about 10 degrees below normal on Friday with the surface ridge in
close proximity to the area.

An upper ridge will build over the region beginning on Saturday so
thunderstorm chances will mainly be confined to the higher terrain
of West Texas and southeast New Mexico.  Temperatures will begin to
warm up across the area as a result of the ridge.  Many places will
see triple digits temperatures beginning on Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70
552
FXUS64 KMAF 161919
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
218 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A broad upper level trough is over the eastern 2/3 of the country
with the CWA on the backside of this trough under northwest flow
aloft.  Various shortwaves are and will move over the area in this
northwest flow.  Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving across the Davis Mountains and surrounding
area, and a surface trough is present across southwest Texas and
eastern New Mexico.  Gusty winds and brief heavy rain will be the
main threats with these storms although an isolated severe storm is
possible across the northern Permian Basin where CAPE and bulk shear
values are higher.  Temperatures this afternoon are only expected to
be slightly warmer than those yesterday afternoon.

On Thursday, a shortwave rounding the base of the upper trough is
expected to move over Oklahoma and send a cold front southward into
the CWA during the afternoon.  This will enhance lift over the
region so scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Thursday.  Severe storms will be possible across the northern and
eastern CWA where CAPE values will be over 1000 J/Kg and 0 to 6 km
bulk shear values will be 35 to 45 kts per the NAM12.  The lacking
factor will be the mid-level lapse rates which will struggle to
reach 7 degrees C/km.  High temperatures tomorrow will be tricky to
pinpoint due to the timing of the front and amount of cloud cover
and precipitation.

The upper trough will begin to move eastward on Friday and the cold
front will finish pushing through the area Friday morning.
Development of showers and thunderstorms will mainly occur along the
front as it moves south, so most convection should be confined to
the higher terrain and along the Rio Grande by Friday evening.  Some
strong storms with gusty winds will be possible in this area with
CAPE values remaining high along the front.  Temperatures will be
about 10 degrees below normal on Friday with the surface ridge in
close proximity to the area.

An upper ridge will build over the region beginning on Saturday so
thunderstorm chances will mainly be confined to the higher terrain
of West Texas and southeast New Mexico.  Temperatures will begin to
warm up across the area as a result of the ridge.  Many places will
see triple digits temperatures beginning on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  90  66  86  /  30  40  40  30
BIG SPRING TX              73  90  67  86  /  40  50  50  30
CARLSBAD NM                71  93  66  90  /  40  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  78  99  77  96  /  30  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  96  70  90  /  30  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  89  62  85  /  40  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   68  91  63  88  /  40  40  40  20
MARFA TX                   64  90  63  87  /  40  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  92  67  86  /  30  40  40  20
ODESSA TX                  72  92  67  86  /  30  40  40  20
WINK TX                    74  95  69  91  /  40  40  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/80
588
FXUS64 KMAF 161715
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Will keep the 18Z TAFs short and simple due to uncertainties in
coverage and location in expected showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Daytime heating will cause scattered storms to develop
but with no surface feature to focus on, their development will be
random and will thus handle with as needed amendments as storms
approach a particular site. MVFR CIG/VIS and gusty winds can be
expected in and around any storms but generally VFR conditions and
light southeast winds will prevail the next 24 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing most of the morning
across SE NM and the Guadalupe Mountains likely due to a weak wave
moving south across the TX PH. This activity may hold on for a few
more hours before dissipating so have kept higher PoPs over these
areas into this morning. Nonetheless, heavy rain has likely
created flash flooding in and around Guadalupe Mountains NP and
along the Black River.

An anomalously strong upper trough over the eastern Great Lakes
combined with a West Coast ridge have placed our region in weak
northwesterly mid level flow. Similar to yesterday, scattered
showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon. Without a
strong wave nearby, the most favored locations will again be the
higher terrain in and around the Davis Mountains and across SE NM.
Elsewhere, any left over outflow boundaries will need to be
monitored as strong sfc heating will create a moderately unstable
environment for convection to form in. Deep layer shear will remain
weak through this evening so expect storms to be mostly slow
movers producing heavy rain. High temperatures will be greatly
affected by how much cloud cover hangs around into the afternoon.
This time of year a little sunshine can go a long way so even with
a few peaks of sun temperatures should make it to near seasonal
values.

Meanwhile, another shortwave will slide down the front range of the
Rockies tonight and move across the S. Plains on Thursday. This will
bring a cold front into the area Thursday along with a decent
chance of rain. Models continue to suggest widespread thunderstorm
development across the TX PH this afternoon with possible upscale
growth into one or more MCS`s by evening. This activity will likely
slide southeast into the Red River Valley by Thursday morning with
an outflow boundary/cold front extending west across the TX S.
Plains or Permian Basin. It is yet to be known how far south this
front will push, but more showers and thunderstorms are expected to
form along this boundary Thursday afternoon. Heavy rain will be the
main threat with rich low level moisture already in place and PWATS
>1.5". High temperatures Thursday afternoon will depend on how far
south and west the front makes it. 80`s can be expected north of the
boundary with 90`s and 100`s ahead of it. Temperatures fall 5-10
degrees below seasonal norms Friday as the front gets a better
push south. This will keep most of the shower and thunderstorm
activity mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor.

Enjoy the brief relief from the heat as the upper ridge to our west
strengthens this weekend and centers itself overhead. Afternoon
highs will reach well into the 90`s and 100`s beginning Saturday and
lasting into much of next week. Mid level temps warm as subsidence
increases so expect rain chances to be confined mainly to the
Davis Mountains remaining isolated at best.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10
734
FXUS64 KMAF 161011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
511 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014

.AVIATION...

Area radars show convection persisting south of KCNM, but less strong
than last issuance. Expect VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Models
continue to handle this convection poorly, so we`ll forgo
inserting a mention of convection unless needed. However,
forecast soundings suggest a widespread cu field developing by
late morning, w/bases 4.5-7kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing most of the morning
across SE NM and the Guadalupe Mountains likely due to a weak wave
moving south across the TX PH. This activity may hold on for a few
more hours before dissipating so have kept higher PoPs over these
areas into this morning. Nonetheless, heavy rain has likely
created flash flooding in and around Guadalupe Mountains NP and
along the Black River.

An anomalously strong upper trough over the eastern Great Lakes
combined with a West Coast ridge have placed our region in weak
northwesterly mid level flow. Similar to yesterday, scattered
showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon. Without a
strong wave nearby, the most favored locations will again be the
higher terrain in and around the Davis Mountains and across SE NM.
Elsewhere, any left over outflow boundaries will need to be
monitored as strong sfc heating will create a moderately unstable
environment for convection to form in. Deep layer shear will remain
weak through this evening so expect storms to be mostly slow
movers producing heavy rain. High temperatures will be greatly
affected by how much cloud cover hangs around into the afternoon.
This time of year a little sunshine can go a long way so even with
a few peaks of sun temperatures should make it to near seasonal
values.

Meanwhile, another shortwave will slide down the front range of the
Rockies tonight and move across the S. Plains on Thursday. This will
bring a cold front into the area Thursday along with a decent
chance of rain. Models continue to suggest widespread thunderstorm
development across the TX PH this afternoon with possible upscale
growth into one or more MCS`s by evening. This activity will likely
slide southeast into the Red River Valley by Thursday morning with
an outflow boundary/cold front extending west across the TX S.
Plains or Permian Basin. It is yet to be known how far south this
front will push, but more showers and thunderstorms are expected to
form along this boundary Thursday afternoon. Heavy rain will be the
main threat with rich low level moisture already in place and PWATS
>1.5". High temperatures Thursday afternoon will depend on how far
south and west the front makes it. 80`s can be expected north of the
boundary with 90`s and 100`s ahead of it. Temperatures fall 5-10
degrees below seasonal norms Friday as the front gets a better
push south. This will keep most of the shower and thunderstorm
activity mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor.

Enjoy the brief relief from the heat as the upper ridge to our west
strengthens this weekend and centers itself overhead. Afternoon
highs will reach well into the 90`s and 100`s beginning Saturday and
lasting into much of next week. Mid level temps warm as subsidence
increases so expect rain chances to be confined mainly to the
Davis Mountains remaining isolated at best.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
847
FXUS64 KMAF 160917
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
417 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing most of the morning
across SE NM and the Guadalupe Mountains likely due to a weak wave
moving south across the TX PH. This activity may hold on for a few
more hours before dissipating so have kept higher PoPs over these
areas into this morning. Nonetheless, heavy rain has likely
created flash flooding in and around Guadalupe Mountains NP and
along the Black River.

An anomalously strong upper trough over the eastern Great Lakes
combined with a West Coast ridge have placed our region in weak
northwesterly mid level flow. Similar to yesterday, scattered
showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon. Without a
strong wave nearby, the most favored locations will again be the
higher terrain in and around the Davis Mountains and across SE NM.
Elsewhere, any left over outflow boundaries will need to be
monitored as strong sfc heating will create a moderately unstable
environment for convection to form in. Deep layer shear will remain
weak through this evening so expect storms to be mostly slow
movers producing heavy rain. High temperatures will be greatly
affected by how much cloud cover hangs around into the afternoon.
This time of year a little sunshine can go a long way so even with
a few peaks of sun temperatures should make it to near seasonal
values.

Meanwhile, another shortwave will slide down the front range of the
Rockies tonight and move across the S. Plains on Thursday. This will
bring a cold front into the area Thursday along with a decent
chance of rain. Models continue to suggest widespread thunderstorm
development across the TX PH this afternoon with possible upscale
growth into one or more MCS`s by evening. This activity will likely
slide southeast into the Red River Valley by Thursday morning with
an outflow boundary/cold front extending west across the TX S.
Plains or Permian Basin. It is yet to be known how far south this
front will push, but more showers and thunderstorms are expected to
form along this boundary Thursday afternoon. Heavy rain will be the
main threat with rich low level moisture already in place and PWATS
>1.5". High temperatures Thursday afternoon will depend on how far
south and west the front makes it. 80`s can be expected north of the
boundary with 90`s and 100`s ahead of it. Temperatures fall 5-10
degrees below seasonal norms Friday as the front gets a better
push south. This will keep most of the shower and thunderstorm
activity mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor.

Enjoy the brief relief from the heat as the upper ridge to our west
strengthens this weekend and centers itself overhead. Afternoon
highs will reach well into the 90`s and 100`s beginning Saturday and
lasting into much of next week. Mid level temps warm as subsidence
increases so expect rain chances to be confined mainly to the
Davis Mountains remaining isolated at best.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 90  72  94  66  /  40  30  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              92  75  92  70  /  30  40  40  40
CARLSBAD NM                95  71  97  69  /  40  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 100  78 102  77  /  20  20  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  73  96  71  /  30  30  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  68  90  63  /  40  40  30  30
HOBBS NM                   90  68  93  63  /  40  40  20  20
MARFA TX                   87  64  90  63  /  30  40  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    92  74  94  69  /  40  30  30  30
ODESSA TX                  92  74  94  69  /  40  30  30  30
WINK TX                    97  75  98  72  /  40  40  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29
964
FXUS64 KMAF 160527
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2014

.AVIATION...

Area radars show convection winding down as AMS continues
stabilizing, and all terminals VFR. Expect VFR conditions the next
24 hours. Models hint at MVFR cigs for a few hours Wed morning
eastern terminals, but have not handled the past 24 hrs well.
Thus, we`ll forgo inserting a mention of convection attm.
However, forecast soundings suggest a widespread cu field
developing by late morning, w/bases 4-6kft agl. A 40+KT llj is
forecast to develop near the end of the fcst period, which may
sustain any convection that develops.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Cold front
across the central Permian Basin is expected to produce widely
scattered thunderstorms the next 24 hours. Based on current
trends confidence not high enough at this time to mention at
any of the terminals. Will continue to monitor throughout the
forecast periods. Winds tonight will generally be east to
southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms across the Davis
Mountains and surrounding area as well as some light showers across
the Western Low Rolling Plains.  This is a result of a shortwave
moving over the region on the backside of a broad upper trough that
is centered over the Great Lakes region.  Temperatures are cooler
today as a result of a boundary moving through the area with east to
northeast winds on the backside of a surface high over the
Central/Southern Plains.  Another shortwave will move into the
northern CWA tonight as the boundary moves to the south, so showers
are expected to continue into the overnight hours.  A shortwave will
be over the area on Wednesday so more scattered showers and
thunderstorms with moderate rainfall are expected.  Bulk shear and
CAPE values will be higher across the northern and eastern CWA so an
isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out.  Despite the
scattered rain and cloud cover across the area, temperatures are
expected to warm up on Wednesday due to an intensifying surface
trough.

An additional shortwave on the backside of the upper trough will
move over the area on Thursday with a cold front moving into the
area Thursday as well.  Temperatures will warm up in advance of the
front, but there is some uncertainty with how warm it will get.  The
shortwave and front will allow for more rain and storms to develop
across the CWA on Thursday with the lift remaining over the region.
Moderate rainfall amounts are again expected.  A few severe storms
are possible this day along and near the front.  On Friday, the
upper trough and associated shortwaves will move east of the region
with the area of convection moving south toward the Rio Grande by
Friday evening.

An upper ridge will begin building over the central conus on
Saturday with areas of convection being confined to the higher
terrain of West Texas and southeast New Mexico.  Temperatures are
also expected to warm up into the mid 90s to triple digits beginning
Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
943
FXUS64 KMAF 152245
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
545 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Cold front
across the central Permian Basin is expected to produce widely
scattered thunderstorms the next 24 hours. Based on current
trends confidence not high enough at this time to mention at
any of the terminals. Will continue to monitor throughout the
forecast periods. Winds tonight will generally be east to
southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms across the Davis
Mountains and surrounding area as well as some light showers across
the Western Low Rolling Plains.  This is a result of a shortwave
moving over the region on the backside of a broad upper trough that
is centered over the Great Lakes region.  Temperatures are cooler
today as a result of a boundary moving through the area with east to
northeast winds on the backside of a surface high over the
Central/Southern Plains.  Another shortwave will move into the
northern CWA tonight as the boundary moves to the south, so showers
are expected to continue into the overnight hours.  A shortwave will
be over the area on Wednesday so more scattered showers and
thunderstorms with moderate rainfall are expected.  Bulk shear and
CAPE values will be higher across the northern and eastern CWA so an
isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out.  Despite the
scattered rain and cloud cover across the area, temperatures are
expected to warm up on Wednesday due to an intensifying surface
trough.

An additional shortwave on the backside of the upper trough will
move over the area on Thursday with a cold front moving into the
area Thursday as well.  Temperatures will warm up in advance of the
front, but there is some uncertainty with how warm it will get.  The
shortwave and front will allow for more rain and storms to develop
across the CWA on Thursday with the lift remaining over the region.
Moderate rainfall amounts are again expected.  A few severe storms
are possible this day along and near the front.  On Friday, the
upper trough and associated shortwaves will move east of the region
with the area of convection moving south toward the Rio Grande by
Friday evening.

An upper ridge will begin building over the central conus on
Saturday with areas of convection being confined to the higher
terrain of West Texas and southeast New Mexico.  Temperatures are
also expected to warm up into the mid 90s to triple digits beginning
Saturday.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  93  72  93  /  40  30  40  40
BIG SPRING TX              72  93  74  93  /  30  30  40  40
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  70  94  /  30  30  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  76  98  77  99  /  20  20  20  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  96  74  97  /  20  30  30  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  88  68  88  /  40  30  40  40
HOBBS NM                   68  92  68  92  /  40  30  40  30
MARFA TX                   62  88  64  90  /  30  40  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  94  73  95  /  30  30  40  40
ODESSA TX                  71  93  73  94  /  30  30  40  40
WINK TX                    71  97  74  99  /  30  30  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80
735
FXUS64 KMAF 151947
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
241 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms across the Davis
Mountains and surrounding area as well as some light showers across
the Western Low Rolling Plains.  This is a result of a shortwave
moving over the region on the backside of a broad upper trough that
is centered over the Great Lakes region.  Temperatures are cooler
today as a result of a boundary moving through the area with east to
northeast winds on the backside of a surface high over the
Central/Southern Plains.  Another shortwave will move into the
northern CWA tonight as the boundary moves to the south, so showers
are expected to continue into the overnight hours.  A shortwave will
be over the area on Wednesday so more scattered showers and
thunderstorms with moderate rainfall are expected.  Bulk shear and
CAPE values will be higher across the northern and eastern CWA so an
isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out.  Despite the
scattered rain and cloud cover across the area, temperatures are
expected to warm up on Wednesday due to an intensifying surface
trough.

An additional shortwave on the backside of the upper trough will
move over the area on Thursday with a cold front moving into the
area Thursday as well.  Temperatures will warm up in advance of the
front, but there is some uncertainty with how warm it will get.  The
shortwave and front will allow for more rain and storms to develop
across the CWA on Thursday with the lift remaining over the region.
Moderate rainfall amounts are again expected.  A few severe storms
are possible this day along and near the front.  On Friday, the
upper trough and associated shortwaves will move east of the region
with the area of convection moving south toward the Rio Grande by
Friday evening.

An upper ridge will begin building over the central conus on
Saturday with areas of convection being confined to the higher
terrain of West Texas and southeast New Mexico.  Temperatures are
also expected to warm up into the mid 90s to triple digits beginning
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  93  72  93  /  40  30  40  40
BIG SPRING TX              72  93  74  93  /  30  30  40  40
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  70  94  /  30  30  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  76  98  77  99  /  20  20  20  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  96  74  97  /  20  30  30  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  88  68  88  /  40  30  40  40
HOBBS NM                   68  92  68  92  /  40  30  40  30
MARFA TX                   62  88  64  90  /  30  40  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  94  73  95  /  30  30  40  40
ODESSA TX                  71  93  73  94  /  30  30  40  40
WINK TX                    71  97  74  99  /  30  30  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80
359
FXUS64 KMAF 151736
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions to prevail areawide through the forecast
period, except for temporary MVFR visibility at KCNM, KFST and KPEQ
where thunderstorms have been included between 15/20Z and 16/02Z.
Otherwise, east to southeast winds generally around 10kt or less
will prevail.  67


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014/

UPDATE...

Sending an update to increase PoPs over the Lower Trans Pecos into
the higher terrain.  Also will tweak afternoon high temperatures
according to lower h85 temperatures in the latest progs and
according to expected cloud cover.

DISCUSSION...

Showers and a few thunderstorms persisted over portions of the
Permian Basin and near the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region.
Cloud cover was fairly extensive over the northern half of the
forecast area this morning, but less cloud cover and some better
heating was commencing over the Lower Trans Pecos and over a good
deal of the higher terrain. An MCV is swirling slowly southward
into the northern Permian Basin from the Panhandle, while a
frontal boundary lie across the Permian Basin and a couple of
outflow boundaries have moved into the Lower Trans Pecos and
higher terrain.

Although temperatures look to stay in the 80s north, better heating
over the southern and western forecast area, along with easterly
upslope flow, will likely result in scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon in a moist, modestly unstable airmass.  In addition, it
appears there will be little to no cap over most of the region.
Think gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be the main
threats from any thunderstorms through this afternoon, but
particularly over the Lower Trans Pecos into the higher terrain
where the best heating will occur.  If locations over the
northern/central forecast area can receive enough heating, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will also be possible along the mentioned
frontal boundary.  An update will follow shortly.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
148
FXUS64 KMAF 151455
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
955 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014

.UPDATE...

Sending an update to increase PoPs over the Lower Trans Pecos into
the higher terrain.  Also will tweak afternoon high temperatures
according to lower h85 temperatures in the latest progs and
according to expected cloud cover.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and a few thunderstorms persisted over portions of the
Permian Basin and near the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region.
Cloud cover was fairly extensive over the northern half of the
forecast area this morning, but less cloud cover and some better
heating was commencing over the Lower Trans Pecos and over a good
deal of the higher terrain. An MCV is swirling slowly southward
into the northern Permian Basin from the Panhandle, while a
frontal boundary lie across the Permian Basin and a couple of
outflow boundaries have moved into the Lower Trans Pecos and
higher terrain.

Although temperatures look to stay in the 80s north, better heating
over the southern and western forecast area, along with easterly
upslope flow, will likely result in scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon in a moist, modestly unstable airmass.  In addition, it
appears there will be little to no cap over most of the region.
Think gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be the main
threats from any thunderstorms through this afternoon, but
particularly over the Lower Trans Pecos into the higher terrain
where the best heating will occur.  If locations over the
northern/central forecast area can receive enough heating, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will also be possible along the mentioned
frontal boundary.  An update will follow shortly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 85  71  91  71  /  40  40  30  40
BIG SPRING TX              88  75  93  74  /  40  30  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                88  71  94  72  /  30  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  97  76 100  79  /  40  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           92  72  97  74  /  40  20  30  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          83  67  87  68  /  50  40  30  30
HOBBS NM                   85  68  89  68  /  30  40  30  30
MARFA TX                   86  61  88  64  /  50  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    87  71  94  72  /  40  30  30  30
ODESSA TX                  87  72  93  73  /  40  30  30  40
WINK TX                    89  73  96  74  /  40  20  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67

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