Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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736
FXUS64 KMAF 250518
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show convection diminishing over the Permian Basin,
leaving lots of moisture to work with over the next few days.
Models suggest stratus forming overnight, w/MVFR cigs KMAF/KCNM.
Otherwise, forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by
late morning, w/bases 2.4-3.5 kft agl.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the southern Rocky Mountains with upper
ridging over the southeast conus.  This pattern has resulted in
south southwest winds aloft over the area.  Showers and
thunderstorms are currently over parts of the CWA and are expected
to continue across the area today as upper lift and low level
moisture remain over the region.  The PWAT value on the 12z MAF
sounding was 1.59 inches and values are expected to remain around 1
to 2 inches across the area so heavy rain is possible. High
temperatures today are expected to be similar to yesterday with
highs a little bit below normal.

The upper trough lifts slightly northward on Thursday resulting in a
little less lift over the area and less low level moisture. However,
there will be enough lift and moisture for showers and storms to
remain across the area with most of the activity across the western
CWA.  Temperatures on Thursday are expected to warm up to near
normal values with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.  The upper pattern
does not change much on Friday with southwest winds aloft.
Precipitation will mostly remain confined to the higher terrain and
surrounding plains with highs perhaps a couple of degrees cooler
than the previous day.  The upper trough will become centered over
the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday but otherwise not much
change expected from Friday.  The upper ridge begins to spread over
the rest of the southern conus heading into next week but remains
somewhat flattened as upper troughs continue to move over the
northern half of the country.  Southeast surface winds will allow
for low level moisture to remain across the area and for rain and
storm chances to remain through the extended forecast.  Temperatures
in the extended are expected to be below normal with highs mostly in
the 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  68  90  69 /  20  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       89  66  89  66 /  50  50  40  20
Dryden                         93  72  92  72 /  20  20  30  10
Fort Stockton                  91  67  89  68 /  30  30  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 85  62  82  64 /  50  40  50  30
Hobbs                          86  64  86  64 /  50  40  30  20
Marfa                          81  60  82  60 /  60  50  50  30
Midland Intl Airport           92  68  90  69 /  20  20  30  10
Odessa                         91  69  89  69 /  30  20  30  10
Wink                           92  69  90  68 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44

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