Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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780
FXUS64 KMAF 202349
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
649 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue with a gusty SE wind dropping off
during the evening.  The wind should become light overnight
picking up out of the S/SW by tomorrow afternoon.  May be some
storms tomorrow across the east but current pops too low to
include in TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Westerly flow aloft prevails over the region today as flat shortwave
ridging precedes a southern stream shortwave trough.  Although high
temperatures this afternoon will be around 5 degrees below normal, a
few thunderstorms could develop over the Davis Mountains under steep
mid level lapse rates.  Do not expect much rainfall with any storms
today, but they could produce gusty winds due to a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Low level moisture will increase more tonight and
Tuesday on southerly/southeasterly winds with a disparate dryline
forming over the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau.  Models are not
aggressive in developing precipitation, due in part to a cap along
the dryline.  However, surface temperatures will warm above normal
and perhaps serve to break the cap Tuesday afternoon, maybe even
moreso if a subtlety hinted at model shortwave trough impinges upon
the area.  If convective initiation is realized, around 1500 J/Kg
SBcape, mid level lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/Km and 0 to 6 Km bulk
shear of 45-55Kt could yield a few severe thunderstorms.

Increasing westerly flow aloft will result in downslope winds at
the surface, and a low level thermal ridge expanding eastward over
the area Wednesday.  Not looking for record high temps, but highs
will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.  It appears any convection to
affect the area will be possible only along the eastern fringe of
the forecast area as the dryline mixes eastward.  Fire weather
concerns will be high, especially in the Guadalupe Mountains where
a Fire Weather Watch is in effect, and perhaps over the SE NM Plains
if surface winds end up strong enough for critical conditions.
Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more details.

A plume of mid/upper level moisture on the equatorward side of an
upper jet will spread over the region Thursday, with elevated
convection possible on the nose of a 70Kt h5 jet.  The dryline
becomes disparate in model output again Thursday afternoon, but not
sure this will be correct due to height/surface pressure falls and
the resulting backing low level winds.  Will expand slight chance
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon to account for this.  Not only will
a low level jet nose into the region Thursday night, sharpen the
dryline and aid in driving it westward, but a Pacific front will
push eastward into the area.  Both of these factors could aid
convective development well into the night, so will keep at least
slight chance of thunderstorms then, especially over the Stockton
Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos.  More severe storms will be
possible.  The ua trough will eject northeastward over the Texas
Panhandle Friday, which should result in windy conditions over much
of the forecast area.  Will keep a dry forecast going through next
weekend, and Monday too, as mainly westerly flow aloft will prevail
over the region.  It appears temperatures will remain above normal
for the duration.

FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions along the Upper Trans Pecos and westward are expected to
remain dry through this week with the exception of an isolated
thunderstorm across the Davis Mountains.  This will result in
further drying of the fuels.  Temperatures are expected to warm up
to above normal beginning on Tuesday.  Fire weather concerns will be
low today with most places experiencing RH values of at least 20
percent except across the far west CWA and wind speeds will be
fairly light.  Dry air will once again come into areas along and
west of the Upper Trans Pecos on Tuesday, with elevated fire
weather conditions in the Guadalupes as winds will be near 20 mph.
This dry air will spread further eastward on Wednesday with single
digit RH values across a good portion of the area and winds will
become elevated out of the west to southwest.  A Fire Weather Watch
is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains on Wednesday as winds above
20 mph are expected. This watch may need to be extended to include
the Van Horn area and southeast New Mexico as winds across these
areas will be near 20 mph.  Friday appears to have a high potential
for fire weather with winds at or above 20 mph and RH values near 15
percent across a large portion of the area.  Dry air appears to
remain across the area on Saturday but winds are not expected to be
as strong.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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374
FXUS64 KMAF 201927
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
227 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Westerly flow aloft prevails over the region today as flat shortwave
ridging precedes a southern stream shortwave trough.  Although high
temperatures this afternoon will be around 5 degrees below normal, a
few thunderstorms could develop over the Davis Mountains under steep
mid level lapse rates.  Do not expect much rainfall with any storms
today, but they could produce gusty winds due to a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Low level moisture will increase more tonight and
Tuesday on southerly/southeasterly winds with a disparate dryline
forming over the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau.  Models are not
aggressive in developing precipitation, due in part to a cap along
the dryline.  However, surface temperatures will warm above normal
and perhaps serve to break the cap Tuesday afternoon, maybe even
moreso if a subtlety hinted at model shortwave trough impinges upon
the area.  If convective initiation is realized, around 1500 J/Kg
SBcape, mid level lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/Km and 0 to 6 Km bulk
shear of 45-55Kt could yield a few severe thunderstorms.

Increasing westerly flow aloft will result in downslope winds at
the surface, and a low level thermal ridge expanding eastward over
the area Wednesday.  Not looking for record high temps, but highs
will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.  It appears any convection to
affect the area will be possible only along the eastern fringe of
the forecast area as the dryline mixes eastward.  Fire weather
concerns will be high, especially in the Guadalupe Mountains where
a Fire Weather Watch is in effect, and perhaps over the SE NM Plains
if surface winds end up strong enough for critical conditions.
Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more details.

A plume of mid/upper level moisture on the equatorward side of an
upper jet will spread over the region Thursday, with elevated
convection possible on the nose of a 70Kt h5 jet.  The dryline
becomes disparate in model output again Thursday afternoon, but not
sure this will be correct due to height/surface pressure falls and
the resulting backing low level winds.  Will expand slight chance
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon to account for this.  Not only will
a low level jet nose into the region Thursday night, sharpen the
dryline and aid in driving it westward, but a Pacific front will
push eastward into the area.  Both of these factors could aid
convective development well into the night, so will keep at least
slight chance of thunderstorms then, especially over the Stockton
Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos.  More severe storms will be
possible.  The ua trough will eject northeastward over the Texas
Panhandle Friday, which should result in windy conditions over much
of the forecast area.  Will keep a dry forecast going through next
weekend, and Monday too, as mainly westerly flow aloft will prevail
over the region.  It appears temperatures will remain above normal
for the duration.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions along the Upper Trans Pecos and westward are expected to
remain dry through this week with the exception of an isolated
thunderstorm across the Davis Mountains.  This will result in
further drying of the fuels.  Temperatures are expected to warm up
to above normal beginning on Tuesday.  Fire weather concerns will be
low today with most places experiencing RH values of at least 20
percent except across the far west CWA and wind speeds will be
fairly light.  Dry air will once again come into areas along and
west of the Upper Trans Pecos on Tuesday, with elevated fire
weather conditions in the Guadalupes as winds will be near 20 mph.
This dry air will spread further eastward on Wednesday with single
digit RH values across a good portion of the area and winds will
become elevated out of the west to southwest.  A Fire Weather Watch
is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains on Wednesday as winds above
20 mph are expected. This watch may need to be extended to include
the Van Horn area and southeast New Mexico as winds across these
areas will be near 20 mph.  Friday appears to have a high potential
for fire weather with winds at or above 20 mph and RH values near 15
percent across a large portion of the area.  Dry air appears to
remain across the area on Saturday but winds are not expected to be
as strong.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  84  60  85  /   0  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              54  85  63  89  /   0  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                46  85  56  86  /   0   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  58  82  65  91  /  10  20  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  85  60  88  /  10  20  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  78  55  77  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   48  82  52  83  /   0  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   41  79  45  80  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    53  85  62  88  /   0  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  54  85  62  87  /   0  20  20  10
WINK TX                    51  88  59  89  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

80/67

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729
FXUS64 KMAF 201734
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
elevated out of the southeast with occasional gusts this afternoon.
Winds will become more southerly around sunset and will remain
elevated across some areas before weakening just after 06z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12hr surface pressure falls today of about 10mb will result in
increased s-se winds and maintain coolish 85h temps, 15C east to 19C
w. As such high temps will be about 5-7F below normal. Despite cool
surface temps steep mid level LRs across the Davis Mtns will favor
the formation of isold diurnal tstms. As se-s winds persist into
Tue AM low level mstr will slowly increase underneath steep mid
level LRs. NAM12 still persist in developing isold area of
convection on e slopes of Davis Mtns and drifts e in FST area.
Farther e on Tue PM in area between the surface thermal ridge
across the w-nw PB and the surface mstr axis ABI-JCT will be
favored for tstms. A close inspection of SB CINH in said area does
reveal a weakness. 85h winds suggest dryline will hold across the
ern PB and fcst soundings around SNK show no cap and CAPES of 1500
J/KG, 0-6km shear 40-50kts, so isold severe tstms are possible.
High temps will be back into the normal range Tue. Wly mid level
flow strengthens Wed and dry air will push out farther e, mostly
precluding convective concerns, and keeping temps well above
normal. Mid level flow backs Thur ahead of upper low and a minor
shrtwv trof will eject out across the area. Surface mstr pattern
will be diffuse and high based -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible. Storms
will be possible into Fri AM across the east and Lower Trans
Pecos as 5h speed max comes out across the plains leaving said
area INVOF RRQ of 5h jet. It should be noted that ECMWF is slower
with upper low. During the afternoon both models favor windy/very
windy conditions with 30-40kts 7h winds across W TX plains during
max heating in alignment with sufficiently tight MSLP gradient to
kick winds up, probably easily into advisory level. Models are
hesitant to bring front thru on Sat, which does not make much
sense. According to models Sat/Sun would be warm/dry/breezy.
Front may bi-sect CWFA Monday, but models are disparate.

FIRE WEATHER...
In the wake of Sunday`s cold front, minimum RH values will offer a
bit of reprieve today, climbing to 15 to 30 percent across the area.
However, this reprieve will be short-lived as a significant drying
and warming trend takes over. Dry low and mid level flow through
the first half of the week will exacerbate the drying of fuels
across southeast New Mexico and west Texas, and with a return to
southwest flow aloft by midweek ahead of the next approaching
trough, winds will increase as well as temperatures, with highs
climbing well above normal into the middle to upper 80s, and even
low 90s by midweek. While the warm and dry conditions will be
pronounced on Tuesday, Wednesday currently looks to be of greater
concern for critical fire weather conditions due to a tighter
pressure gradient and thus stronger winds, especially across the
western half of the forecast area. Minimum RH values Wednesday are
progged to drop into the single digits across the southeast New
Mexico Plains and higher terrain to the west, and given sustained
wind speeds up to around 30mph expected through the Guadalupe
Mountains, have gone ahead and issued a preemptive Fire Weather
Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains for Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening. Models have yet to reach a consensus regarding
the position of the dryline, progged to return by Wednesday and
Thursday, with the ECMWF still indicating the dryline across the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, and the GFS pushing the
dryline further east toward central Texas. The position of the
dryline will impact future Fire Weather headlines this week, but
pending either scenario, elevated to critical fire weather
conditions look to be possible from midweek through next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99

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217
FXUS64 KMAF 201104
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
604 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Light east
winds will increase out of the southeast by mid-morning to around
12-15kt, with breezy conditions expected to persist through Monday
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12hr surface pressure falls today of about 10mb will result in
increased s-se winds and maintain coolish 85h temps, 15C east to 19C
w. As such high temps will be about 5-7F below normal. Despite cool
surface temps steep mid level LRs across the Davis Mtns will favor
the formation of isold diurnal tstms. As se-s winds persist into
Tue AM low level mstr will slowly increase underneath steep mid
level LRs. NAM12 still persist in developing isold area of
convection on e slopes of Davis Mtns and drifts e in FST area.
Farther e on Tue PM in area between the surface thermal ridge
across the w-nw PB and the surface mstr axis ABI-JCT will be
favored for tstms. A close inspection of SB CINH in said area does
reveal a weakness. 85h winds suggest dryline will hold across the
ern PB and fcst soundings around SNK show no cap and CAPES of 1500
J/KG, 0-6km shear 40-50kts, so isold severe tstms are possible.
High temps will be back into the normal range Tue. Wly mid level
flow strengthens Wed and dry air will push out farther e, mostly
precluding convective concerns, and keeping temps well above
normal. Mid level flow backs Thur ahead of upper low and a minor
shrtwv trof will eject out across the area. Surface mstr pattern
will be diffuse and high based -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible. Storms
will be possible into Fri AM across the east and Lower Trans
Pecos as 5h speed max comes out across the plains leaving said
area INVOF RRQ of 5h jet. It should be noted that ECMWF is slower
with upper low. During the afternoon both models favor windy/very
windy conditions with 30-40kts 7h winds across W TX plains during
max heating in alignment with sufficiently tight MSLP gradient to
kick winds up, probably easily into advisory level. Models are
hesitant to bring front thru on Sat, which does not make much
sense. According to models Sat/Sun would be warm/dry/breezy.
Front may bi-sect CWFA Monday, but models are disparate.

FIRE WEATHER...
In the wake of Sunday`s cold front, minimum RH values will offer a
bit of reprieve today, climbing to 15 to 30 percent across the area.
However, this reprieve will be short-lived as a significant drying
and warming trend takes over. Dry low and mid level flow through
the first half of the week will exacerbate the drying of fuels
across southeast New Mexico and west Texas, and with a return to
southwest flow aloft by midweek ahead of the next approaching
trough, winds will increase as well as temperatures, with highs
climbing well above normal into the middle to upper 80s, and even
low 90s by midweek. While the warm and dry conditions will be
pronounced on Tuesday, Wednesday currently looks to be of greater
concern for critical fire weather conditions due to a tighter
pressure gradient and thus stronger winds, especially across the
western half of the forecast area. Minimum RH values Wednesday are
progged to drop into the single digits across the southeast New
Mexico Plains and higher terrain to the west, and given sustained
wind speeds up to around 30mph expected through the Guadalupe
Mountains, have gone ahead and issued a preemptive Fire Weather
Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains for Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening. Models have yet to reach a consensus regarding
the position of the dryline, progged to return by Wednesday and
Thursday, with the ECMWF still indicating the dryline across the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, and the GFS pushing the
dryline further east toward central Texas. The position of the
dryline will impact future Fire Weather headlines this week, but
pending either scenario, elevated to critical fire weather
conditions look to be possible from midweek through next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

49/84

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649
FXUS64 KMAF 200909
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
409 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
12hr surface pressure falls today of about 10mb will result in
increased s-se winds and maintain coolish 85h temps, 15C east to 19C
w. As such high temps will be about 5-7F below normal. Despite cool
surface temps steep mid level LRs across the Davis Mtns will favor
the formation of isold diurnal tstms. As se-s winds persist into
Tue AM low level mstr will slowly increase underneath steep mid
level LRs. NAM12 still persist in developing isold area of
convection on e slopes of Davis Mtns and drifts e in FST area.
Farther e on Tue PM in area between the surface thermal ridge
across the w-nw PB and the surface mstr axis ABI-JCT will be
favored for tstms. A close inspection of SB CINH in said area does
reveal a weakness. 85h winds suggest dryline will hold across the
ern PB and fcst soundings around SNK show no cap and CAPES of 1500
J/KG, 0-6km shear 40-50kts, so isold severe tstms are possible.
High temps will be back into the normal range Tue. Wly mid level
flow strengthens Wed and dry air will push out farther e, mostly
precluding convective concerns, and keeping temps well above
normal. Mid level flow backs Thur ahead of upper low and a minor
shrtwv trof will eject out across the area. Surface mstr pattern
will be diffuse and high based -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible. Storms
will be possible into Fri AM across the east and Lower Trans
Pecos as 5h speed max comes out across the plains leaving said
area INVOF RRQ of 5h jet. It should be noted that ECMWF is slower
with upper low. During the afternoon both models favor windy/very
windy conditions with 30-40kts 7h winds across W TX plains during
max heating in alignment with sufficiently tight MSLP gradient to
kick winds up, probably easily into advisory level. Models are
hesitant to bring front thru on Sat, which does not make much
sense. According to models Sat/Sun would be warm/dry/breezy.
Front may bi-sect CWFA Monday, but models are disparate.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
In the wake of Sunday`s cold front, minimum RH values will offer a
bit of reprieve today, climbing to 15 to 30 percent across the area.
However, this reprieve will be short-lived as a significant drying
and warming trend takes over. Dry low and mid level flow through
the first half of the week will exacerbate the drying of fuels
across southeast New Mexico and west Texas, and with a return to
southwest flow aloft by midweek ahead of the next approaching
trough, winds will increase as well as temperatures, with highs
climbing well above normal into the middle to upper 80s, and even
low 90s by midweek. While the warm and dry conditions will be
pronounced on Tuesday, Wednesday currently looks to be of greater
concern for critical fire weather conditions due to a tighter
pressure gradient and thus stronger winds, especially across the
western half of the forecast area. Minimum RH values Wednesday are
progged to drop into the single digits across the southeast New
Mexico Plains and higher terrain to the west, and given sustained
wind speeds up to around 30mph expected through the Guadalupe
Mountains, have gone ahead and issued a preemptive Fire Weather
Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains for Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening. Models have yet to reach a consensus regarding
the position of the dryline, progged to return by Wednesday and
Thursday, with the ECMWF still indicating the dryline across the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, and the GFS pushing the
dryline further east toward central Texas. The position of the
dryline will impact future Fire Weather headlines this week, but
pending either scenario, elevated to critical fire weather
conditions look to be possible from midweek through next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  51  85  58  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              75  52  84  62  /   0   0  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                77  45  86  52  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  75  57  85  64  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  53  86  56  /  10  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          74  50  79  52  /  10   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   74  46  83  51  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   75  42  80  44  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  51  87  61  /   0   0  20  20
ODESSA TX                  76  52  86  60  /   0   0  20  20
WINK TX                    78  50  90  56  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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895
FXUS64 KMAF 200522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
light east winds overnight becoming southeasterly and increasing
to 12-15kt by mid-morning Monday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Northwest flow aloft over the region today will transition to
west/southwest flow through the week as an ua trough over the
central U.S. Plains translates eastward, and a southern stream
shortwave trough approaches from the west.  A cold front will
continue to drop south into the area, with gusty northerly winds
behind it.  The parent surface ridge will settle into central Texas
by Monday morning with seasonably cool temperatures expected.  The
surface ridge will shift eastward Monday with return southeasterly
flow allowing a modicum of low level moisture return.  Will continue
to carry a slight chance of thunderstorms in the Davis Mountains as
temperatures will warm enough over the higher terrain for perhaps a
thunderstorm or two.  It doesn`t appear any convection that forms
will last long into the evening.  Southerly winds Monday night and
Tuesday will result in the formation of a dryline with a slight
chance of convective initiation along it Tuesday afternoon and
evening.  There are some indications a shortwave trough will
traverse the region Tuesday afternoon, although it is subtle in
model output.  Also, there is still some question where the
dryline will set up during the afternoon.  Since temperatures will
warm above normal and there will be plenty of SBcape, at least
1500 J/Kg, steep mid level lapse rates around 8 C/Km and 0 to 6 Km
Bulk Shear of 35-45kt, later shifts will have to monitor for the
possibility of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe.

The dryline will remain over the region Wednesday through Friday,
although by Friday it may be on the eastern fringe of the forecast
area, if not east of the region.  Therefore, will carry a slight
chance of thunderstorms each of these days.  As soon as a better
handle can be gained on the whereabouts of the dryline each of these
afternoons/evenings, later shifts will likely increase PoPs.  Since
we will heat nearly 10 degrees above normal through midweek, and
thermodynamic parameters appear to be favorable, the potential
exists for more severe thunderstorms.  Stay tuned.  Another front
could drop into the region Friday when the above mentioned ua trough
passes. However, not much cooling may occur behind it Friday with
temperatures rebounding above normal pretty quickly Saturday and
Sunday.  But, it does look as though the forecast will be dry next
weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions along the Upper Trans Pecos and westward are expected to
remain dry through this week.  This will result in further drying of
the fuels.  Temperatures are expected to warm up to above normal
beginning on Tuesday.  RH values of 15 percent or less are expected
today along the Pecos River and extending south and west of this
area, but wind speeds are not expected to be very strong.
Conditions will improve on Monday behind the cold front with most
places experiencing RH values of at least 20 percent.  Dry air will
once again come into areas along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos
on Tuesday, with critical conditions possible in the Guadalupes.
This dry air will spread eastward as the week continues and winds
will become elevated out of the west to southwest.  Some of the
models are indicating RH values in the single digits across portions
of the area.  These conditions will result in possible fire weather
concerns through the end of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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399
FXUS64 KMAF 192320
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with gusty north wind dropping off after sunset.
Wind will veer around to the E overnight becoming SE Monday as new
leeside trough develops.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Northwest flow aloft over the region today will transition to
west/southwest flow through the week as an ua trough over the
central U.S. Plains translates eastward, and a southern stream
shortwave trough approaches from the west.  A cold front will
continue to drop south into the area, with gusty northerly winds
behind it.  The parent surface ridge will settle into central Texas
by Monday morning with seasonably cool temperatures expected.  The
surface ridge will shift eastward Monday with return southeasterly
flow allowing a modicum of low level moisture return.  Will continue
to carry a slight chance of thunderstorms in the Davis Mountains as
temperatures will warm enough over the higher terrain for perhaps a
thunderstorm or two.  It doesn`t appear any convection that forms
will last long into the evening.  Southerly winds Monday night and
Tuesday will result in the formation of a dryline with a slight
chance of convective initiation along it Tuesday afternoon and
evening.  There are some indications a shortwave trough will
traverse the region Tuesday afternoon, although it is subtle in
model output.  Also, there is still some question where the
dryline will set up during the afternoon.  Since temperatures will
warm above normal and there will be plenty of SBcape, at least
1500 J/Kg, steep mid level lapse rates around 8 C/Km and 0 to 6 Km
Bulk Shear of 35-45kt, later shifts will have to monitor for the
possibility of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe.

The dryline will remain over the region Wednesday through Friday,
although by Friday it may be on the eastern fringe of the forecast
area, if not east of the region.  Therefore, will carry a slight
chance of thunderstorms each of these days.  As soon as a better
handle can be gained on the whereabouts of the dryline each of these
afternoons/evenings, later shifts will likely increase PoPs.  Since
we will heat nearly 10 degrees above normal through midweek, and
thermodynamic parameters appear to be favorable, the potential
exists for more severe thunderstorms.  Stay tuned.  Another front
could drop into the region Friday when the above mentioned ua trough
passes. However, not much cooling may occur behind it Friday with
temperatures rebounding above normal pretty quickly Saturday and
Sunday.  But, it does look as though the forecast will be dry next
weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions along the Upper Trans Pecos and westward are expected to
remain dry through this week.  This will result in further drying of
the fuels.  Temperatures are expected to warm up to above normal
beginning on Tuesday.  RH values of 15 percent or less are expected
today along the Pecos River and extending south and west of this
area, but wind speeds are not expected to be very strong.
Conditions will improve on Monday behind the cold front with most
places experiencing RH values of at least 20 percent.  Dry air will
once again come into areas along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos
on Tuesday, with critical conditions possible in the Guadalupes.
This dry air will spread eastward as the week continues and winds
will become elevated out of the west to southwest.  Some of the
models are indicating RH values in the single digits across portions
of the area.  These conditions will result in possible fire weather
concerns through the end of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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727
FXUS64 KMAF 191918
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
218 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Northwest flow aloft over the region today will transition to
west/southwest flow through the week as an ua trough over the
central U.S. Plains translates eastward, and a southern stream
shortwave trough approaches from the west.  A cold front will
continue to drop south into the area, with gusty northerly winds
behind it.  The parent surface ridge will settle into central Texas
by Monday morning with seasonably cool temperatures expected.  The
surface ridge will shift eastward Monday with return southeasterly
flow allowing a modicum of low level moisture return.  Will continue
to carry a slight chance of thunderstorms in the Davis Mountains as
temperatures will warm enough over the higher terrain for perhaps a
thunderstorm or two.  It doesn`t appear any convection that forms
will last long into the evening.  Southerly winds Monday night and
Tuesday will result in the formation of a dryline with a slight
chance of convective initiation along it Tuesday afternoon and
evening.  There are some indications a shortwave trough will
traverse the region Tuesday afternoon, although it is subtle in
model output.  Also, there is still some question where the
dryline will set up during the afternoon.  Since temperatures will
warm above normal and there will be plenty of SBcape, at least
1500 J/Kg, steep mid level lapse rates around 8 C/Km and 0 to 6 Km
Bulk Shear of 35-45kt, later shifts will have to monitor for the
possibility of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe.

The dryline will remain over the region Wednesday through Friday,
although by Friday it may be on the eastern fringe of the forecast
area, if not east of the region.  Therefore, will carry a slight
chance of thunderstorms each of these days.  As soon as a better
handle can be gained on the whereabouts of the dryline each of these
afternoons/evenings, later shifts will likely increase PoPs.  Since
we will heat nearly 10 degrees above normal through midweek, and
thermodynamic parameters appear to be favorable, the potential
exists for more severe thunderstorms.  Stay tuned.  Another front
could drop into the region Friday when the above mentioned ua trough
passes. However, not much cooling may occur behind it Friday with
temperatures rebounding above normal pretty quickly Saturday and
Sunday.  But, it does look as though the forecast will be dry next
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions along the Upper Trans Pecos and westward are expected to
remain dry through this week.  This will result in further drying of
the fuels.  Temperatures are expected to warm up to above normal
beginning on Tuesday.  RH values of 15 percent or less are expected
today along the Pecos River and extending south and west of this
area, but wind speeds are not expected to be very strong.
Conditions will improve on Monday behind the cold front with most
places experiencing RH values of at least 20 percent.  Dry air will
once again come into areas along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos
on Tuesday, with critical conditions possible in the Guadalupes.
This dry air will spread eastward as the week continues and winds
will become elevated out of the west to southwest.  Some of the
models are indicating RH values in the single digits across portions
of the area.  These conditions will result in possible fire weather
concerns through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 46  75  51  83  /   0   0   0  20
BIG SPRING TX              48  75  54  82  /   0   0   0  20
CARLSBAD NM                46  75  45  84  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  57  77  57  83  /   0  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  78  54  87  /   0  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  73  50  77  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   42  72  46  80  /  10   0   0  20
MARFA TX                   41  75  40  78  /   0  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    48  75  53  85  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  49  76  54  84  /   0   0   0  20
WINK TX                    48  79  52  88  /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67

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986
FXUS64 KMAF 191651
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1145 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
northerly and elevated with some gusts this afternoon behind the
cold front.  Winds will weaken around sunset and become easterly to
southeasterly overnight before becoming elevated out of the
southeast late Monday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure will slowly fill in across the plains today in
wake of an upper low moving out into the Central Plains.
Appropriately so, it will be about 2-3C cooler at 85h with front
turning winds to the nw-n this PM. Wind should be no more than 15kts
making for a pleasant day. SE winds will increase Mon PM in response
to falling surface pressures to the w and this will preclude any
thoughts of a warming trend, in fact Mon PM will be a few degrees
cooler than Sunday, in part due to increased clouds. The 85h thermal
ridge will amplify Tue and a noticeable warm-up will occur with dry
air pushing e out to the PB underneath flat mid level ridging. A few
storms will be possible near the Davis/Glass Mtns where low level
mstr may hold in long enuf for initiation and also across mostly the
ern PB near the dryline. A dryline will also set up on Wed, but
where? GFS is much farther e and of late GFS has been the
windiest/driest and continues this trend on Wed. CMC is closer to
the GFS and there will downplay on the wrn extent of any PoPs that
blend come up with. Mid level flow backs Thur and a shrtwv trof will
have a chance to move across and slight chance PoPs are warranted.
5h low will pass to the n either Fri AM or PM and has the potential
to result in warm/dry windy conditions. Warm/dry pattern is likely
to persist Sat/Sun, especially if GFS Bogarts its way to the front.

FIRE WEATHER...
With little in the way of precipitation chances heading into next
week, a significant drying trend will begin, particularly along and
south/west of the Pecos River. The beginning of this drying trend
has already been observed in the Guadalupe Mountains, where min RH
values struggled to climb above 10 percent on Saturday.  Dry low and
midlevel flow through the early part of the week will exacerbate the
drying of fuels across the area, and with a return to southwest
flow aloft by midweek ahead of the next approaching trough, winds
will increase as well as temperatures, with highs climbing well
into the 80s by Wednesday due to downsloping winds and deep
mixing. Daytime RH values are concerning by midweek, with models
indicating the potential for percentages in the single digits
across a large portion of the forecast area. The dryline is
expected to reform by Wednesday into Thursday as well, with the
ECMWF indicating the dryline across the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos, and the much more bullish GFS shunting moisture to
the east, with the dryline across central Texas. Pending either
scenario, it looks like an extended warm and dry period is in the
offing, with elevated to critical fire weather concerns certainly
possible from early this week all the way into next weekend. Stay
tuned...

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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825
FXUS64 KMAF 191127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Winds will continue to veer to the northwest and increase through
the morning as a cold front moves through the area, with speeds
from 12-20kt and some gusts possible through Sunday afternoon.
Wind gusts will diminish by late afternoon/early evening, with
winds veering to the east Sunday night, generally remaining below
12kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure will slowly fill in across the plains today in
wake of an upper low moving out into the Central Plains.
Appropriately so, it will be about 2-3C cooler at 85h with front
turning winds to the nw-n this PM. Wind should be no more than 15kts
making for a pleasant day. SE winds will increase Mon PM in response
to falling surface pressures to the w and this will preclude any
thoughts of a warming trend, in fact Mon PM will be a few degrees
cooler than Sunday, in part due to increased clouds. The 85h thermal
ridge will amplify Tue and a noticeable warm-up will occur with dry
air pushing e out to the PB underneath flat mid level ridging. A few
storms will be possible near the Davis/Glass Mtns where low level
mstr may hold in long enuf for initiation and also across mostly the
ern PB near the dryline. A dryline will also set up on Wed, but
where? GFS is much farther e and of late GFS has been the
windiest/driest and continues this trend on Wed. CMC is closer to
the GFS and there will downplay on the wrn extent of any PoPs that
blend come up with. Mid level flow backs Thur and a shrtwv trof will
have a chance to move across and slight chance PoPs are warranted.
5h low will pass to the n either Fri AM or PM and has the potential
to result in warm/dry windy conditions. Warm/dry pattern is likely
to persist Sat/Sun, especially if GFS Bogarts its way to the front.

FIRE WEATHER...
With little in the way of precipitation chances heading into next
week, a significant drying trend will begin, particularly along and
south/west of the Pecos River. The beginning of this drying trend
has already been observed in the Guadalupe Mountains, where min RH
values struggled to climb above 10 percent on Saturday.  Dry low and
midlevel flow through the early part of the week will exacerbate the
drying of fuels across the area, and with a return to southwest
flow aloft by midweek ahead of the next approaching trough, winds
will increase as well as temperatures, with highs climbing well
into the 80s by Wednesday due to downsloping winds and deep
mixing. Daytime RH values are concerning by midweek, with models
indicating the potential for percentages in the single digits
across a large portion of the forecast area. The dryline is
expected to reform by Wednesday into Thursday as well, with the
ECMWF indicating the dryline across the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos, and the much more bullish GFS shunting moisture to
the east, with the dryline across central Texas. Pending either
scenario, it looks like an extended warm and dry period is in the
offing, with elevated to critical fire weather concerns certainly
possible from early this week all the way into next weekend. Stay
tuned...

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/84

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666
FXUS64 KMAF 190840
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
340 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure will slowly fill in across the plains today in
wake of an upper low moving out into the Central Plains.
Appropriately so, it will be about 2-3C cooler at 85h with front
turning winds to the nw-n this PM. Wind should be no more than 15kts
making for a pleasant day. SE winds will increase Mon PM in response
to falling surface pressures to the w and this will preclude any
thoughts of a warming trend, in fact Mon PM will be a few degrees
cooler than Sunday, in part due to increased clouds. The 85h thermal
ridge will amplify Tue and a noticeable warm-up will occur with dry
air pushing e out to the PB underneath flat mid level ridging. A few
storms will be possible near the Davis/Glass Mtns where low level
mstr may hold in long enuf for initiation and also across mostly the
ern PB near the dryline. A dryline will also set up on Wed, but
where? GFS is much farther e and of late GFS has been the
windiest/driest and continues this trend on Wed. CMC is closer to
the GFS and there will downplay on the wrn extent of any PoPs that
blend come up with. Mid level flow backs Thur and a shrtwv trof will
have a chance to move across and slight chance PoPs are warranted.
5h low will pass to the n either Fri AM or PM and has the potential
to result in warm/dry windy conditions. Warm/dry pattern is likely
to persist Sat/Sun, especially if GFS Bogarts its way to the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With little in the way of precipitation chances heading into next
week, a significant drying trend will begin, particularly along and
south/west of the Pecos River. The beginning of this drying trend
has already been observed in the Guadalupe Mountains, where min RH
values struggled to climb above 10 percent on Saturday.  Dry low and
midlevel flow through the early part of the week will exacerbate the
drying of fuels across the area, and with a return to southwest
flow aloft by midweek ahead of the next approaching trough, winds
will increase as well as temperatures, with highs climbing well
into the 80s by Wednesday due to downsloping winds and deep
mixing. Daytime RH values are concerning by midweek, with models
indicating the potential for percentages in the single digits
across a large portion of the forecast area. The dryline is
expected to reform by Wednesday into Thursday as well, with the
ECMWF indicating the dryline across the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos, and the much more bullish GFS shunting moisture to
the east, with the dryline across central Texas. Pending either
scenario, it looks like an extended warm and dry period is in the
offing, with elevated to critical fire weather concerns certainly
possible from early this week all the way into next weekend. Stay
tuned...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 46  73  51  82  /   0   0   0  20
BIG SPRING TX              49  75  54  81  /   0   0   0  20
CARLSBAD NM                47  75  45  83  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  58  75  57  80  /   0  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  76  54  85  /   0  10   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  73  50  77  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   43  73  46  79  /  10   0   0  20
MARFA TX                   41  75  40  77  /   0  10   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    48  74  53  83  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  48  74  54  83  /   0   0   0  20
WINK TX                    49  77  52  86  /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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461
FXUS64 KMAF 190529
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
southwest winds veering to the northwest Sunday morning as a cold
front moves into the area. Winds will increase behind the front
Sunday to 10 to 20kt and become gusty, though gusts will
diminish Sunday evening as winds then veer to the east.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A cutoff low over Colorado will translate eastward today, open up
on Sunday, then eject northeastward through the Midwest Monday as
it becomes entrained in the northern jet stream.  Westerly flow
aloft over the region today will transition to northwesterly and
weaken as a result.  Aside from any residual thunderstorms over the
Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon, the forecast will remain dry
through Sunday as moist low level air will be shunted eastward.  A
cold front will also drop into the area Sunday and keep temperatures
seasonal, but there does not appear to be enough moisture for any
precipitation.  A surface ridge will drop into the area Sunday
night, but move quickly eastward Monday due to persistent northwest
flow aloft.  There may be enough moisture return Monday afternoon
for a few thunderstorms in the Davis Mountains, with any convection
spreading into the Lower Trans Pecos Monday night on the return
moisture axis.  There does not appear to be much support for
convection in the mid levels from any passing shortwave trough, so
PoPs will be low.

Into the extended, a split flow regime aloft will develop with a
southern stream shortwave trough gradually progressing eastward
across the Baja Peninsula and northern Mexico through mid next week,
and into the area late next week.  A dryline will set up over the
area Tuesday with diurnal fluctuations occurring thereafter through
weeks end.  As temperatures warm above normal, will include a
slight chance of thunderstorms most days from Tuesday through
Friday.  The PoPs will be low these days until we get a little
closer to those time frames due to a variety of solutions on the
locations of the dryline, discrete shortwave troughs ejecting over
the region ahead of the ua trough, and the eventual passage of the
trough.

FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions will be dry today with most places across the CWA
experiencing minimum RH values of 15 percent or less.  Winds will
pick up this afternoon across the area with southeast New Mexico and
the Guadalupe Mountains experiencing winds of at least 20 mph.  Due
to these conditions, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the
Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico through early this
evening.  Winds will decrease around sunset and RH values will
increase with a cold front moving into the area Sunday morning, so
fire weather concerns will end after this evening.  Low RH values
will be along and south of the Pecos River Sunday afternoon but wind
speeds will be much lower.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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703
FXUS64 KMAF 182310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies. West to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusty will
diminish to generally 10 mph or less near sunset and tonight
through mid Sunday morning. Winds will become northwest at
generally at 10 to 20 mph and gusty by mid Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A cutoff low over Colorado will translate eastward today, open up
on Sunday, then eject northeastward through the Midwest Monday as
it becomes entrained in the northern jet stream.  Westerly flow
aloft over the region today will transition to northwesterly and
weaken as a result.  Aside from any residual thunderstorms over the
Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon, the forecast will remain dry
through Sunday as moist low level air will be shunted eastward.  A
cold front will also drop into the area Sunday and keep temperatures
seasonal, but there does not appear to be enough moisture for any
precipitation.  A surface ridge will drop into the area Sunday
night, but move quickly eastward Monday due to persistent northwest
flow aloft.  There may be enough moisture return Monday afternoon
for a few thunderstorms in the Davis Mountains, with any convection
spreading into the Lower Trans Pecos Monday night on the return
moisture axis.  There does not appear to be much support for
convection in the mid levels from any passing shortwave trough, so
PoPs will be low.

Into the extended, a split flow regime aloft will develop with a
southern stream shortwave trough gradually progressing eastward
across the Baja Peninsula and northern Mexico through mid next week,
and into the area late next week.  A dryline will set up over the
area Tuesday with diurnal fluctuations occurring thereafter through
weeks end.  As temperatures warm above normal, will include a
slight chance of thunderstorms most days from Tuesday through
Friday.  The PoPs will be low these days until we get a little
closer to those time frames due to a variety of solutions on the
locations of the dryline, discrete shortwave troughs ejecting over
the region ahead of the ua trough, and the eventual passage of the
trough.

FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions will be dry today with most places across the CWA
experiencing minimum RH values of 15 percent or less.  Winds will
pick up this afternoon across the area with southeast New Mexico and
the Guadalupe Mountains experiencing winds of at least 20 mph.  Due
to these conditions, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the
Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico through early this
evening.  Winds will decrease around sunset and RH values will
increase with a cold front moving into the area Sunday morning, so
fire weather concerns will end after this evening.  Low RH values
will be along and south of the Pecos River Sunday afternoon but wind
speeds will be much lower.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  75  46  75  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              53  78  52  76  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                49  77  47  76  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  56  87  58  75  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           56  80  50  76  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  73  44  73  /   0  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   47  72  43  74  /   0   0  10   0
MARFA TX                   40  73  41  75  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  78  51  75  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  54  78  48  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    49  80  49  78  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

80/67

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349
FXUS64 KMAF 181917
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
217 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A cutoff low over Colorado will translate eastward today, open up
on Sunday, then eject northeastward through the Midwest Monday as
it becomes entrained in the northern jet stream.  Westerly flow
aloft over the region today will transition to northwesterly and
weaken as a result.  Aside from any residual thunderstorms over the
Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon, the forecast will remain dry
through Sunday as moist low level air will be shunted eastward.  A
cold front will also drop into the area Sunday and keep temperatures
seasonal, but there does not appear to be enough moisture for any
precipitation.  A surface ridge will drop into the area Sunday
night, but move quickly eastward Monday due to persistent northwest
flow aloft.  There may be enough moisture return Monday afternoon
for a few thunderstorms in the Davis Mountains, with any convection
spreading into the Lower Trans Pecos Monday night on the return
moisture axis.  There does not appear to be much support for
convection in the mid levels from any passing shortwave trough, so
PoPs will be low.

Into the extended, a split flow regime aloft will develop with a
southern stream shortwave trough gradually progressing eastward
across the Baja Peninsula and northern Mexico through mid next week,
and into the area late next week.  A dryline will set up over the
area Tuesday with diurnal fluctuations occurring thereafter through
weeks end.  As temperatures warm above normal, will include a
slight chance of thunderstorms most days from Tuesday through
Friday.  The PoPs will be low these days until we get a little
closer to those time frames due to a variety of solutions on the
locations of the dryline, discrete shortwave troughs ejecting over
the region ahead of the ua trough, and the eventual passage of the
trough.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions will be dry today with most places across the CWA
experiencing minimum RH values of 15 percent or less.  Winds will
pick up this afternoon across the area with southeast New Mexico and
the Guadalupe Mountains experiencing winds of at least 20 mph.  Due
to these conditions, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the
Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico through early this
evening.  Winds will decrease around sunset and RH values will
increase with a cold front moving into the area Sunday morning, so
fire weather concerns will end after this evening.  Low RH values
will be along and south of the Pecos River Sunday afternoon but wind
speeds will be much lower.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  75  46  75  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              53  78  52  76  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                49  77  47  76  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  56  87  58  75  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           56  80  50  76  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  73  44  73  /   0  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   47  72  43  74  /   0   0  10   0
MARFA TX                   40  73  41  75  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  78  51  75  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  54  78  48  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    49  80  49  78  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

80/67

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005
FXUS64 KMAF 181736
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
elevated and gusty out of the southwest to west this afternoon
before weakening around sunset.  Winds will become elevated late
Sunday morning out of the northwest as a cold front moves into the
area.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Per satellite imagery, the slow moving low that has been responsible
for repeated opportunities for severe weather over our area the past
several days has begun to lift northeast, and is currently located
over east central Colorado. Low level westerly flow continues to
advect dry air into the area as well, and combined with the low
finally moving toward the plains, the dryline will be shunted to the
east of the forecast area today, along with any chances of
convection. The only caveat to this scenario could be over portions
of the Lower Trans Pecos, mainly Terrell county, where models are
indicating some light QPF through this afternoon before the dryline
clears the forecast area to the east.  Thus, will maintain the
potential for isolated thunder in this area today, though any storms
that do develop will struggle to become marginally severe before
exiting the area to the east toward a more favorable environment.
That said, threats would include hail and gusty winds. Of larger
concern today is the combination of gusty west winds and dry
conditions/low RH, which is expected to result in critical fire
weather conditions across the southeast New Mexico plains and
Guadalupe Mountains, and warranted the issuance of a Red Flag
Warning. Please see the Fire Weather discussion as well as the RFW
product for details.

High temperatures today will range from the middle 70s across the
southeast New Mexico Plains and in the Davis mountains to low 80s
elsewhere, and even to the upper 80s and near 90 degrees in the Rio
Grande Valley.  A rather benign weather pattern the next several
days will prevent temperatures from fluctuating too much, with
temperatures expected to fluctuate between a few degrees above
and below normal through the week. The normal high for Midland for
this time of year is 80 degrees. A weak cold front will edge into
the area late Sunday, which will drop temperatures a few degrees
for Monday into Tuesday, though a quick return to low level
southeasterly flow by late Monday becoming southerly by Tuesday
will help temperatures to moderate, as well as allow moisture to
once again stream across the region. With quasizonal flow setting
in aloft in the wake of the aforementioned departing low, any weak
shortwaves could potentially result in some showers/thunderstorms
across portions of the area, but given uncertain timing of these
features, have not made substantial changes to the slight chance
PoPs in the extended. By midweek, models indicate the potential
for the dryline to reform across the area, which could act as the
focus for mid- to late-week storm activity, as yet another low
looks to take shape over the western CONUS and dive south,
transitioning flow aloft from quasizonal to southwesterly. Will
wait and see how later model runs handle this feature before
making any sweeping changes to PoPs that far out in the extended.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire wx concerns increase again today spreading into parts of
southeast New Mexico (Eddy/Lea) Co. Mixed layer winds of 20kt
suggest winds will just make into the 20 mph for most of the
afternoon. stronger in GDP Mtns. For GDP Mtns above 6000 ft the
RH may not fall to 15 pct. Fire Danger will be high to very high.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99

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910
FXUS64 KMAF 181137
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
637 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Mid and high clouds
are mostly concentrated to the e-se of KMAF, low clouds may near
MAF and brief light fog is possible this morning with the light
winds and RHs near 95 pct. Light winds this morning give way to
increasing west to southwest winds by mid/late AM and diminish
around or shortly after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Per satellite imagery, the slow moving low that has been responsible
for repeated opportunities for severe weather over our area the past
several days has begun to lift northeast, and is currently located
over east central Colorado. Low level westerly flow continues to
advect dry air into the area as well, and combined with the low
finally moving toward the plains, the dryline will be shunted to the
east of the forecast area today, along with any chances of
convection. The only caveat to this scenario could be over portions
of the Lower Trans Pecos, mainly Terrell county, where models are
indicating some light QPF through this afternoon before the dryline
clears the forecast area to the east.  Thus, will maintain the
potential for isolated thunder in this area today, though any storms
that do develop will struggle to become marginally severe before
exiting the area to the east toward a more favorable environment.
That said, threats would include hail and gusty winds. Of larger
concern today is the combination of gusty west winds and dry
conditions/low RH, which is expected to result in critical fire
weather conditions across the southeast New Mexico plains and
Guadalupe Mountains, and warranted the issuance of a Red Flag
Warning. Please see the Fire Weather discussion as well as the RFW
product for details.

High temperatures today will range from the middle 70s across the
southeast New Mexico Plains and in the Davis mountains to low 80s
elsewhere, and even to the upper 80s and near 90 degrees in the Rio
Grande Valley.  A rather benign weather pattern the next several
days will prevent temperatures from fluctuating too much, with
temperatures expected to fluctuate between a few degrees above
and below normal through the week. The normal high for Midland for
this time of year is 80 degrees. A weak cold front will edge into
the area late Sunday, which will drop temperatures a few degrees
for Monday into Tuesday, though a quick return to low level
southeasterly flow by late Monday becoming southerly by Tuesday
will help temperatures to moderate, as well as allow moisture to
once again stream across the region. With quasizonal flow setting
in aloft in the wake of the aforementioned departing low, any weak
shortwaves could potentially result in some showers/thunderstorms
across portions of the area, but given uncertain timing of these
features, have not made substantial changes to the slight chance
PoPs in the extended. By midweek, models indicate the potential
for the dryline to reform across the area, which could act as the
focus for mid- to late-week storm activity, as yet another low
looks to take shape over the western CONUS and dive south,
transitioning flow aloft from quasizonal to southwesterly. Will
wait and see how later model runs handle this feature before
making any sweeping changes to PoPs that far out in the extended.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire wx concerns increase again today spreading into parts of
southeast New Mexico (Eddy/Lea) Co. Mixed layer winds of 20kt
suggest winds will just make into the 20 mph for most of the
afternoon. stronger in GDP Mtns. For GDP Mtns above 6000 ft the
RH may not fall to 15 pct. Fire Danger will be high to very high.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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614
FXUS64 KMAF 180847
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
347 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Per satellite imagery, the slow moving low that has been responsible
for repeated opportunities for severe weather over our area the past
several days has begun to lift northeast, and is currently located
over east central Colorado. Low level westerly flow continues to
advect dry air into the area as well, and combined with the low
finally moving toward the plains, the dryline will be shunted to the
east of the forecast area today, along with any chances of
convection. The only caveat to this scenario could be over portions
of the Lower Trans Pecos, mainly Terrell county, where models are
indicating some light QPF through this afternoon before the dryline
clears the forecast area to the east.  Thus, will maintain the
potential for isolated thunder in this area today, though any storms
that do develop will struggle to become marginally severe before
exiting the area to the east toward a more favorable environment.
That said, threats would include hail and gusty winds. Of larger
concern today is the combination of gusty west winds and dry
conditions/low RH, which is expected to result in critical fire
weather conditions across the southeast New Mexico plains and
Guadalupe Mountains, and warranted the issuance of a Red Flag
Warning. Please see the Fire Weather discussion as well as the RFW
product for details.

High temperatures today will range from the middle 70s across the
southeast New Mexico Plains and in the Davis mountains to low 80s
elsewhere, and even to the upper 80s and near 90 degrees in the Rio
Grande Valley.  A rather benign weather pattern the next several
days will prevent temperatures from fluctuating too much, with
temperatures expected to fluctuate between a few degrees above
and below normal through the week. The normal high for Midland for
this time of year is 80 degrees. A weak cold front will edge into
the area late Sunday, which will drop temperatures a few degrees
for Monday into Tuesday, though a quick return to low level
southeasterly flow by late Monday becoming southerly by Tuesday
will help temperatures to moderate, as well as allow moisture to
once again stream across the region. With quasizonal flow setting
in aloft in the wake of the aforementioned departing low, any weak
shortwaves could potentially result in some showers/thunderstorms
across portions of the area, but given uncertain timing of these
features, have not made substantial changes to the slight chance
PoPs in the extended. By midweek, models indicate the potential
for the dryline to reform across the area, which could act as the
focus for mid- to late-week storm activity, as yet another low
looks to take shape over the western CONUS and dive south,
transitioning flow aloft from quasizonal to southwesterly. Will
wait and see how later model runs handle this feature before
making any sweeping changes to PoPs that far out in the extended.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire wx concerns increase again today spreading into parts of
southeast New Mexico (Eddy/Lea) Co. Mixed layer winds of 20kt
suggest winds will just make into the 20 mph for most of the
afternoon. stronger in GDP Mtns. For GDP Mtns above 6000 ft the
RH may not fall to 15 pct. Fire Danger will be high to very high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  49  74  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              82  52  78  51  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  48  77  47  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  90  54  88  57  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  53  80  51  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  47  72  46  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   75  46  73  45  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   73  36  73  41  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  51  78  49  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  80  51  78  50  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    81  50  80  49  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

49/84

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945
FXUS64 KMAF 180531
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours.  Mid and high
clouds are expected overnight but skies should clear Saturday
morning. Light winds this morning will increase from the west to
southwest by mid/late AM and diminish around or shortly after
sunset.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM MDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM MDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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672
FXUS64 KMAF 172254
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
554 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. West to southwest
winds should diminish and become light and variable around or
shortly after sunset and continue overnight. some mid and high
clouds are expected overnight but skies should clear Saturday
morning.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A large cutoff low has swirled eastward into southern Colorado this
afternoon, while a Pacific front to it`s south has pushed through
most of our forecast area.  West/southwest flow aloft will persist
over the region tonight and Saturday to the south of the slowly
northeastward ambling upper low, and continue to supply a feed of
dry air to the region.  There does appear to be another shortwave
trough swinging around the base of the upper low tonight, along with
a 110kt h25 jet nosing into southwest Texas, which could spark a few
thunderstorms over the Big Bend region, but low level moisture will
be fairly scant.  Will carry a slight chance of thunderstorms from
the Big Bend across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern fringe of the
Permian basin tonight.  Think the biggest threat will be gusty winds
over the the Big Bend due to a fairly dry subcloud layer, and an
outside chance of a severe storm over the eastern Permian Basin or
Lower Trans Pecos through tonight.

By Saturday, think the persistent westerly flow will shove the
dryline east of the area, except perhaps over Terrell county where
only a slight chance of thunderstorms will be retained.  Do not
think there will be any severe storms even that far west.  It looks
like fire weather concerns will persist through Saturday while
cyclonic flow around the southern periphery of the upper low is
still strong enough for windy conditions over the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains.  Please see the Fire
Weather Discussion below for more details.

The semi permanent upper low will finally rejoin the northern stream
Sunday.  A large upper trough will then encompass the eastern half
of the ConUS into mid next week and leave the forecast area dry
Sunday and Monday.  A cold front will push into the region Sunday
and result in a continuation of near normal, pleasant Springtime
temperatures.  By Tuesday, the parent surface ridge behind the front
will slide eastward and allow for southerly return flow in it`s
wake.  At the same time, another southern stream ua trough will
begin to head toward the region via the Baja Peninsula and northern
Mexico.  A dryline will form over the area, and we could have
thunderstorms develop from Tuesday until the end of next week.  Any
PoPs in these time frames will be held to a slight chance as there
are too many differences in the timing of discrete shortwave troughs
ahead of the mentioned ua trough amongst models, not to mention the
ua trough itself, to carry anything moreso.  It appears temperatures
will warm above normal for mid to late next week though.

FIRE WEATHER...

As an upper level storm system over the Four Corners Region
continues to slide east into the Central Plains today, associated
surface low pressure will also slide further to the east as well as
drier downslope west winds work their way into the area.  700 mb
winds from the 12z NAM suggest the strongest winds aloft should be
confined primarily to the Guadalupe Mountains from this afternoon
through this evening. With RH values already below 15 percent at GDP
and with winds expected to increase, the current Red Flag Warning
appears to be on track.

Saturday presents an interesting scenario.  On the backside of this
storm system, the NAM suggests wind speeds should be sufficient to
meet critical thresholds over the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast New
Mexico Plains, Upper Trans Pecos Region, and over the western
portions of the Permian Saturday afternoon.  On the other hand, the
GFS shows noticeably lower wind speeds.  Plus, models are suggesting
increasing mid level moisture into the area throughout the day on
Saturday, which will could result in relative humidity meeting
thresholds for a very small window of time during the early
afternoon, if at all.  For now, we will lean towards a Fire Weather
Watch for these areas.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

03/67

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979
FXUS64 KMAF 171926
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
226 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A large cutoff low has swirled eastward into southern Colorado this
afternoon, while a Pacific front to it`s south has pushed through
most of our forecast area.  West/southwest flow aloft will persist
over the region tonight and Saturday to the south of the slowly
northeastward ambling upper low, and continue to supply a feed of
dry air to the region.  There does appear to be another shortwave
trough swinging around the base of the upper low tonight, along with
a 110kt h25 jet nosing into southwest Texas, which could spark a few
thunderstorms over the Big Bend region, but low level moisture will
be fairly scant.  Will carry a slight chance of thunderstorms from
the Big Bend across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern fringe of the
Permian basin tonight.  Think the biggest threat will be gusty winds
over the the Big Bend due to a fairly dry subcloud layer, and an
outside chance of a severe storm over the eastern Permian Basin or
Lower Trans Pecos through tonight.

By Saturday, think the persistent westerly flow will shove the
dryline east of the area, except perhaps over Terrell county where
only a slight chance of thunderstorms will be retained.  Do not
think there will be any severe storms even that far west.  It looks
like fire weather concerns will persist through Saturday while
cyclonic flow around the southern periphery of the upper low is
still strong enough for windy conditions over the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains.  Please see the Fire
Weather Discussion below for more details.

The semi permanent upper low will finally rejoin the northern stream
Sunday.  A large upper trough will then encompass the eastern half
of the ConUS into mid next week and leave the forecast area dry
Sunday and Monday.  A cold front will push into the region Sunday
and result in a continuation of near normal, pleasant Springtime
temperatures.  By Tuesday, the parent surface ridge behind the front
will slide eastward and allow for southerly return flow in it`s
wake.  At the same time, another southern stream ua trough will
begin to head toward the region via the Baja Peninsula and northern
Mexico.  A dryline will form over the area, and we could have
thunderstorms develop from Tuesday until the end of next week.  Any
PoPs in these time frames will be held to a slight chance as there
are too many differences in the timing of discrete shortwave troughs
ahead of the mentioned ua trough amongst models, not to mention the
ua trough itself, to carry anything moreso.  It appears temperatures
will warm above normal for mid to late next week though.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

As an upper level storm system over the Four Corners Region
continues to slide east into the Central Plains today, associated
surface low pressure will also slide further to the east as well as
drier downslope west winds work their way into the area.  700 mb
winds from the 12z NAM suggest the strongest winds aloft should be
confined primarily to the Guadalupe Mountains from this afternoon
through this evening. With RH values already below 15 percent at GDP
and with winds expected to increase, the current Red Flag Warning
appears to be on track.

Saturday presents an interesting scenario.  On the backside of this
storm system, the NAM suggests wind speeds should be sufficient to
meet critical thresholds over the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast New
Mexico Plains, Upper Trans Pecos Region, and over the western
portions of the Permian Saturday afternoon.  On the other hand, the
GFS shows noticeably lower wind speeds.  Plus, models are suggesting
increasing mid level moisture into the area throughout the day on
Saturday, which will could result in relative humidity meeting
thresholds for a very small window of time during the early
afternoon, if at all.  For now, we will lean towards a Fire Weather
Watch for these areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 46  77  50  76  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  82  51  81  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                43  79  48  78  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  59  90  55  89  /  30  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           51  83  53  82  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  68  47  73  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   39  76  46  74  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   36  73  41  75  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    49  81  51  78  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  50  80  52  79  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    46  81  49  81  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

03/67

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361
FXUS64 KMAF 171739
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Surface winds at TAF locations will gradually shift to northwest
to west later this afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances have
shifted farther east of TAF sites this afternoon to just along
the eastern edge of our county warning area. Rain chances will again
increase slightly later this evening at KFST and KMAF locations.
VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A pre-frontal trough ahead of an advancing Pacific front interacted
with the retreating dryline overnight to generate a line of storms
across southeastern New Mexico and northwestern Permian Basin.
These storms have moved northeast into the Texas Panhandle and have
largely remained sub-severe. Currently, a few showers continue to
percolate northeastward across the southeast New Mexico plains,
and a remnant outflow boundary from the aforementioned overnight
convection is moving southeast through the central Permian Basin,
though is not expected to generate additional convection through
the early morning hours.

The main focus today will be the continued threat of severe storms
as the Pacific front continues to move east, allowing for additional
convergence along the dryline that has been responsible for
generating strong to severe storms across the area the past couple
of days. As dry air is ushered into the area via westerlies behind
the front today, the dryline will be pushed east, and thus it looks
like the area with the best chance for severe storms today will be
across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. In this
area, southeasterly winds ahead of the dryline will continue to
advect moisture into the region, and with highs expected to climb
into the 70s and 80s once again this afternoon, diurnal
destabilization is expected to result in MLCAPE values from 1000 to
2000 J/kg along and ahead of the dryline. High resolution model
guidance indicates that convective initiation will occur by mid to
late afternoon across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos, with storms expected to intensify as they move east into a
more favorable environment in the warm sector coincident with a
vort max that is progged to eject out ahead of the low pressure
system currently over the Four Corners region. The Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted the aforementioned area along
and ahead of the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos in a Marginal Risk area for severe weather, with large
hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. Storms will
spread eastward tonight, and as dry air continues to advect into
the region from the west, the dryline will also shift east,
resulting in diminishing chances for storms tonight, with only a
slight chance of storms lingering on Saturday across the Lower
Trans Pecos.

The closed low currently over the Four Corners will open up as it
slowly lifts northeast into the plains and rejoins the northern
stream flow over the next 24 to 48 hours, with storm chances ending
from west to east by late Saturday as the trough axis swings through
the area. A return to quasizonal flow aloft will occur by Sunday,
with a weak surface front edging southward into the area Sunday
night marking slightly cooler temperatures for Monday.  The dry
period will be rather short lived, however, as by Monday night,
southeasterly surface flow will once again set in across the area,
allowing for increased moisture return from the Gulf.  By Wednesday,
models indicate the dryline forming across the area once again, but
given uncertainties as to the exact location, have maintained the
slight chance to low chance pops across the eastern half of the
forecast area for Wednesday and Thursday.  Yet another closed low
looks to take shape and dive south toward Baja by late in the
extended, with quasizonal flow aloft transitioning to southwest flow
by late Thursday into Friday. However, models diverge in the
handling of this feature heading into next weekend, and thus have
not deviated from the blended guidance at this time.

FIRE WEATHER...

An upper level low over the Rocky Mountains will spread very dry air
east into the central Permian Basin today. In fact, relative
humidities this morning are already below 15 percent in the
Guadalupe Mountains and parts of Eddy County. However the upper low
is still a good distance from the area so winds in southeastern New
Mexico and west Texas will generally remain below 20 mph. The
exception will be in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains where stronger mid level winds will be able to mix down
with the help of afternoon heating and it is this area where a Red
Flag Warning has been issued. The upper low is moving very slowly
east so similar conditions are expected to develop tomorrow with
very dry air over much of the area but winds struggling to reach 20
mph. High pressure moving into the area Sunday will bring in enough
moisture to reduce the critical fire weather threat into early next
week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

03

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040
FXUS64 KMAF 171126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
southerly winds gradually shifting to the west/northwest as a weak
front moves through the area this morning. A few thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon and early this evening which could
impact KMAF or KFST, though given the best chance of storms is
east of the terminals, have not included mention in the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A pre-frontal trough ahead of an advancing Pacific front interacted
with the retreating dryline overnight to generate a line of storms
across southeastern New Mexico and northwestern Permian Basin.
These storms have moved northeast into the Texas Panhandle and have
largely remained sub-severe. Currently, a few showers continue to
percolate northeastward across the southeast New Mexico plains,
and a remnant outflow boundary from the aforementioned overnight
convection is moving southeast through the central Permian Basin,
though is not expected to generate additional convection through
the early morning hours.

The main focus today will be the continued threat of severe storms
as the Pacific front continues to move east, allowing for additional
convergence along the dryline that has been responsible for
generating strong to severe storms across the area the past couple
of days. As dry air is ushered into the area via westerlies behind
the front today, the dryline will be pushed east, and thus it looks
like the area with the best chance for severe storms today will be
across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. In this
area, southeasterly winds ahead of the dryline will continue to
advect moisture into the region, and with highs expected to climb
into the 70s and 80s once again this afternoon, diurnal
destabilization is expected to result in MLCAPE values from 1000 to
2000 J/kg along and ahead of the dryline. High resolution model
guidance indicates that convective initiation will occur by mid to
late afternoon across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos, with storms expected to intensify as they move east into a
more favorable environment in the warm sector coincident with a
vort max that is progged to eject out ahead of the low pressure
system currently over the Four Corners region. The Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted the aforementioned area along
and ahead of the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos in a Marginal Risk area for severe weather, with large
hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. Storms will
spread eastward tonight, and as dry air continues to advect into
the region from the west, the dryline will also shift east,
resulting in diminishing chances for storms tonight, with only a
slight chance of storms lingering on Saturday across the Lower
Trans Pecos.

The closed low currently over the Four Corners will open up as it
slowly lifts northeast into the plains and rejoins the northern
stream flow over the next 24 to 48 hours, with storm chances ending
from west to east by late Saturday as the trough axis swings through
the area. A return to quasizonal flow aloft will occur by Sunday,
with a weak surface front edging southward into the area Sunday
night marking slightly cooler temperatures for Monday.  The dry
period will be rather short lived, however, as by Monday night,
southeasterly surface flow will once again set in across the area,
allowing for increased moisture return from the Gulf.  By Wednesday,
models indicate the dryline forming across the area once again, but
given uncertainties as to the exact location, have maintained the
slight chance to low chance pops across the eastern half of the
forecast area for Wednesday and Thursday.  Yet another closed low
looks to take shape and dive south toward Baja by late in the
extended, with quasizonal flow aloft transitioning to southwest flow
by late Thursday into Friday. However, models diverge in the
handling of this feature heading into next weekend, and thus have
not deviated from the blended guidance at this time.

FIRE WEATHER...

An upper level low over the Rocky Mountains will spread very dry air
east into the central Permian Basin today. In fact, relative
humidities this morning are already below 15 percent in the
Guadalupe Mountains and parts of Eddy County. However the upper low
is still a good distance from the area so winds in southeastern New
Mexico and west Texas will generally remain below 20 mph. The
exception will be in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains where stronger mid level winds will be able to mix down
with the help of afternoon heating and it is this area where a Red
Flag Warning has been issued. The upper low is moving very slowly
east so similar conditions are expected to develop tomorrow with
very dry air over much of the area but winds struggling to reach 20
mph. High pressure moving into the area Sunday will bring in enough
moisture to reduce the critical fire weather threat into early next
week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

84

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807
FXUS64 KMAF 170945
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
445 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A pre-frontal trough ahead of an advancing Pacific front interacted
with the retreating dryline overnight to generate a line of storms
across southeastern New Mexico and northwestern Permian Basin.
These storms have moved northeast into the Texas Panhandle and have
largely remained sub-severe. Currently, a few showers continue to
percolate northeastward across the southeast New Mexico plains,
and a remnant outflow boundary from the aforementioned overnight
convection is moving southeast through the central Permian Basin,
though is not expected to generate additional convection through
the early morning hours.

The main focus today will be the continued threat of severe storms
as the Pacific front continues to move east, allowing for additional
convergence along the dryline that has been responsible for
generating strong to severe storms across the area the past couple
of days. As dry air is ushered into the area via westerlies behind
the front today, the dryline will be pushed east, and thus it looks
like the area with the best chance for severe storms today will be
across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. In this
area, southeasterly winds ahead of the dryline will continue to
advect moisture into the region, and with highs expected to climb
into the 70s and 80s once again this afternoon, diurnal
destabilization is expected to result in MLCAPE values from 1000 to
2000 J/kg along and ahead of the dryline. High resolution model
guidance indicates that convective initiation will occur by mid to
late afternoon across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos, with storms expected to intensify as they move east into a
more favorable environment in the warm sector coincident with a
vort max that is progged to eject out ahead of the low pressure
system currently over the Four Corners region. The Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted the aforementioned area along
and ahead of the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos in a Marginal Risk area for severe weather, with large
hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. Storms will
spread eastward tonight, and as dry air continues to advect into
the region from the west, the dryline will also shift east,
resulting in diminishing chances for storms tonight, with only a
slight chance of storms lingering on Saturday across the Lower
Trans Pecos.

The closed low currently over the Four Corners will open up as it
slowly lifts northeast into the plains and rejoins the northern
stream flow over the next 24 to 48 hours, with storm chances ending
from west to east by late Saturday as the trough axis swings through
the area. A return to quasizonal flow aloft will occur by Sunday,
with a weak surface front edging southward into the area Sunday
night marking slightly cooler temperatures for Monday.  The dry
period will be rather short lived, however, as by Monday night,
southeasterly surface flow will once again set in across the area,
allowing for increased moisture return from the Gulf.  By Wednesday,
models indicate the dryline forming across the area once again, but
given uncertainties as to the exact location, have maintained the
slight chance to low chance pops across the eastern half of the
forecast area for Wednesday and Thursday.  Yet another closed low
looks to take shape and dive south toward Baja by late in the
extended, with quasizonal flow aloft transitioning to southwest flow
by late Thursday into Friday. However, models diverge in the
handling of this feature heading into next weekend, and thus have
not deviated from the blended guidance at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An upper level low over the Rocky Mountains will spread very dry air
east into the central Permian Basin today. In fact, relative
humidities this morning are already below 15 percent in the
Guadalupe Mountains and parts of Eddy County. However the upper low
is still a good distance from the area so winds in southeastern New
Mexico and west Texas will generally remain below 20 mph. The
exception will be in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains where stronger mid level winds will be able to mix down
with the help of afternoon heating and it is this area where a Red
Flag Warning has been issued. The upper low is moving very slowly
east so similar conditions are expected to develop tomorrow with
very dry air over much of the area but winds struggling to reach 20
mph. High pressure moving into the area Sunday will bring in enough
moisture to reduce the critical fire weather threat into early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 76  49  77  51  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              80  52  82  52  /  30  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  43  79  47  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  86  58  87  54  /  20  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  51  83  53  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  46  68  48  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   73  43  76  46  /  10   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   72  39  73  37  /   0  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    79  50  81  52  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  78  50  80  52  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    79  46  81  50  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10/84

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371
FXUS64 KMAF 170454
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1154 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light showers may affect HOB through 09Z but conditions will
remain VFR. South winds will shift from the west or northwest with
a a weak frontal passage after 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated the forecast to cancel Severe Thunderstorm Watch 62.

DISCUSSION...
Severe storms have moved out of the area to the north and do not
expect any severe storm development overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another warm day underway today with the potential of severe storms
across eastern zones this afternoon as a dryline sharpens somewhere
near a Lamesa to Midland to just east of Fort Stockton line. An
upper low remains anchored near the Four Corners region today and
may provide some weak upper forcing for ascent to aid in
thunderstorm development. Already seeing CU field developing along
with light radar returns across the eastern PB south into the Lower
Trans Pecos. East of the dryline, 1830Z SPC meso analysis shows
dewpoints in the 50s, CAPE values greater than 2000 J/kg and mid
level LRs aoa 7.5 C/km. Storm mode will likely be supercells
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and possibly an
isolated tornado. Much of the Permian Basin south through the
Lower Trans Pecos remains highlighted in a Slight Risk as of this
afternoon. There is a possibility the dryline will push east out
of the CWA before severe weather occurs but will just have to wait
and see. In addition, not really anticipating any showers/storms
out west over the higher terrain and SE NM however if one or two
happen to develop this afternoon, gusty winds and little rain can
be expected.

Overnight, models indicate a Pacific front advancing east through
the region, colliding with the retreating dryline around midnight.
This could potentially generate thunderstorms once again across the
eastern half of the CWA early Friday morning through afternoon as
the front pushes east. If this is the case, storms could be strong
to severe given the indicated moisture/instability east of the
boundary.

The upper low will begin to move NE toward the Central Plains Friday
with westerly flow developing aloft through Saturday. The dryline
will hang around far eastern zones Saturday but it looks like we
could potentially see an isolated storm or two before the dryline is
east of the FA. Expect high temps in the upper 70s to near 80
through the weekend however a weak cold front Sunday will cool temps
a couple of degrees for Monday. A brief period of dry conditions
Sunday and Monday before thunderstorm chances return mid week as
upper disturbances move overhead in westerly flow aloft and the
dryline sets up across the region once again.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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606
FXUS64 KMAF 170209
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
909 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast to cancel Severe Thunderstorm Watch 62.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Severe storms have moved out of the area to the north and do not
expect any severe storm development overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms possible near MAF the next couple
of hours, but convection has moved east of the other TAF sites
this evening. VFR conditions and south winds shifting from the
west or northwest Friday afternoon with a front.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another warm day underway today with the potential of severe storms
across eastern zones this afternoon as a dryline sharpens somewhere
near a Lamesa to Midland to just east of Fort Stockton line. An
upper low remains anchored near the Four Corners region today and
may provide some weak upper forcing for ascent to aid in
thunderstorm development. Already seeing CU field developing along
with light radar returns across the eastern PB south into the Lower
Trans Pecos. East of the dryline, 1830Z SPC meso analysis shows
dewpoints in the 50s, CAPE values greater than 2000 J/kg and mid
level LRs aoa 7.5 C/km. Storm mode will likely be supercells
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and possibly an
isolated tornado. Much of the Permian Basin south through the
Lower Trans Pecos remains highlighted in a Slight Risk as of this
afternoon. There is a possibility the dryline will push east out
of the CWA before severe weather occurs but will just have to wait
and see. In addition, not really anticipating any showers/storms
out west over the higher terrain and SE NM however if one or two
happen to develop this afternoon, gusty winds and little rain can
be expected.

Overnight, models indicate a Pacific front advancing east through
the region, colliding with the retreating dryline around midnight.
This could potentially generate thunderstorms once again across the
eastern half of the CWA early Friday morning through afternoon as
the front pushes east. If this is the case, storms could be strong
to severe given the indicated moisture/instability east of the
boundary.

The upper low will begin to move NE toward the Central Plains Friday
with westerly flow developing aloft through Saturday. The dryline
will hang around far eastern zones Saturday but it looks like we
could potentially see an isolated storm or two before the dryline is
east of the FA. Expect high temps in the upper 70s to near 80
through the weekend however a weak cold front Sunday will cool temps
a couple of degrees for Monday. A brief period of dry conditions
Sunday and Monday before thunderstorm chances return mid week as
upper disturbances move overhead in westerly flow aloft and the
dryline sets up across the region once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  77  49  78  /  30  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              58  80  53  81  /  50  30  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                45  75  44  78  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  61  84  59  84  /  30  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           53  80  53  81  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  68  46  69  /  10   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   46  74  44  75  /  20  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   43  72  41  72  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  79  51  80  /  40  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  56  79  51  79  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    50  80  46  81  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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013
FXUS64 KMAF 162323
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms possible near MAF the next couple
of hours, but convection has moved east of the other TAF sites
this evening. VFR conditions and south winds shifting from the
west or northwest Friday afternoon with a front.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated the forecast for Severe Thunderstorm Watch #62

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms developed in the western low rolling plains which
became strong to severe. The threat for more will continue into
this evening so a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued. Other
storms have developed along the Pecos River and though there is
no watch in this area, cannot rule out the possibility that one or
two of these storms could go severe.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another warm day underway today with the potential of severe storms
across eastern zones this afternoon as a dryline sharpens somewhere
near a Lamesa to Midland to just east of Fort Stockton line. An
upper low remains anchored near the Four Corners region today and
may provide some weak upper forcing for ascent to aid in
thunderstorm development. Already seeing CU field developing along
with light radar returns across the eastern PB south into the Lower
Trans Pecos. East of the dryline, 1830Z SPC meso analysis shows
dewpoints in the 50s, CAPE values greater than 2000 J/kg and mid
level LRs aoa 7.5 C/km. Storm mode will likely be supercells
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and possibly an
isolated tornado. Much of the Permian Basin south through the
Lower Trans Pecos remains highlighted in a Slight Risk as of this
afternoon. There is a possibility the dryline will push east out
of the CWA before severe weather occurs but will just have to wait
and see. In addition, not really anticipating any showers/storms
out west over the higher terrain and SE NM however if one or two
happen to develop this afternoon, gusty winds and little rain can
be expected.

Overnight, models indicate a Pacific front advancing east through
the region, colliding with the retreating dryline around midnight.
This could potentially generate thunderstorms once again across the
eastern half of the CWA early Friday morning through afternoon as
the front pushes east. If this is the case, storms could be strong
to severe given the indicated moisture/instability east of the
boundary.

The upper low will begin to move NE toward the Central Plains Friday
with westerly flow developing aloft through Saturday. The dryline
will hang around far eastern zones Saturday but it looks like we
could potentially see an isolated storm or two before the dryline is
east of the FA. Expect high temps in the upper 70s to near 80
through the weekend however a weak cold front Sunday will cool temps
a couple of degrees for Monday. A brief period of dry conditions
Sunday and Monday before thunderstorm chances return mid week as
upper disturbances move overhead in westerly flow aloft and the
dryline sets up across the region once again.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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076
FXUS64 KMAF 162156
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
456 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast for Severe Thunderstorm Watch #62

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms developed in the western low rolling plains which
became strong to severe. The threat for more will continue into
this evening so a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued. Other
storms have developed along the Pecos River and though there is
no watch in this area, cannot rule out the possibility that one or
two of these storms could go severe.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another warm day underway today with the potential of severe storms
across eastern zones this afternoon as a dryline sharpens somewhere
near a Lamesa to Midland to just east of Fort Stockton line. An
upper low remains anchored near the Four Corners region today and
may provide some weak upper forcing for ascent to aid in
thunderstorm development. Already seeing CU field developing along
with light radar returns across the eastern PB south into the Lower
Trans Pecos. East of the dryline, 1830Z SPC meso analysis shows
dewpoints in the 50s, CAPE values greater than 2000 J/kg and mid
level LRs aoa 7.5 C/km. Storm mode will likely be supercells
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and possibly an
isolated tornado. Much of the Permian Basin south through the
Lower Trans Pecos remains highlighted in a Slight Risk as of this
afternoon. There is a possibility the dryline will push east out
of the CWA before severe weather occurs but will just have to wait
and see. In addition, not really anticipating any showers/storms
out west over the higher terrain and SE NM however if one or two
happen to develop this afternoon, gusty winds and little rain can
be expected.

Overnight, models indicate a Pacific front advancing east through
the region, colliding with the retreating dryline around midnight.
This could potentially generate thunderstorms once again across the
eastern half of the CWA early Friday morning through afternoon as
the front pushes east. If this is the case, storms could be strong
to severe given the indicated moisture/instability east of the
boundary.

The upper low will begin to move NE toward the Central Plains Friday
with westerly flow developing aloft through Saturday. The dryline
will hang around far eastern zones Saturday but it looks like we
could potentially see an isolated storm or two before the dryline is
east of the FA. Expect high temps in the upper 70s to near 80
through the weekend however a weak cold front Sunday will cool temps
a couple of degrees for Monday. A brief period of dry conditions
Sunday and Monday before thunderstorm chances return mid week as
upper disturbances move overhead in westerly flow aloft and the
dryline sets up across the region once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  77  49  78  /  30  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              58  80  53  81  /  50  30  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                45  75  44  78  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  61  84  59  84  /  30  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           53  80  53  81  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  68  46  69  /  10   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   46  74  44  75  /  20  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   43  72  41  72  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  79  51  80  /  40  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  56  79  51  79  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    50  80  46  81  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12

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074
FXUS64 KMAF 161851
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Another warm day underway today with the potential of severe storms
across eastern zones this afternoon as a dryline sharpens somewhere
near a Lamesa to Midland to just east of Fort Stockton line. An
upper low remains anchored near the Four Corners region today and
may provide some weak upper forcing for ascent to aid in
thunderstorm development. Already seeing CU field developing along
with light radar returns across the eastern PB south into the Lower
Trans Pecos. East of the dryline, 1830Z SPC meso analysis shows
dewpoints in the 50s, CAPE values greater than 2000 J/kg and mid
level LRs aoa 7.5 C/km. Storm mode will likely be supercells
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and possibly an
isolated tornado. Much of the Permian Basin south through the
Lower Trans Pecos remains highlighted in a Slight Risk as of this
afternoon. There is a possibility the dryline will push east out
of the CWA before severe weather occurs but will just have to wait
and see. In addition, not really anticipating any showers/storms
out west over the higher terrain and SE NM however if one or two
happen to develop this afternoon, gusty winds and little rain can
be expected.

Overnight, models indicate a Pacific front advancing east through
the region, colliding with the retreating dryline around midnight.
This could potentially generate thunderstorms once again across the
eastern half of the CWA early Friday morning through afternoon as
the front pushes east. If this is the case, storms could be strong
to severe given the indicated moisture/instability east of the
boundary.

The upper low will begin to move NE toward the Central Plains Friday
with westerly flow developing aloft through Saturday. The dryline
will hang around far eastern zones Saturday but it looks like we
could potentially see an isolated storm or two before the dryline is
east of the FA. Expect high temps in the upper 70s to near 80
through the weekend however a weak cold front Sunday will cool temps
a couple of degrees for Monday. A brief period of dry conditions
Sunday and Monday before thunderstorm chances return mid week as
upper disturbances move overhead in westerly flow aloft and the
dryline sets up across the region once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  77  49  78  /  30  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              58  80  53  81  /  50  30  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                45  75  44  78  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  61  84  59  84  /  30  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           53  80  53  81  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  68  46  69  /  10   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   46  74  44  75  /  20  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   43  72  41  72  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  79  51  80  /  40  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  56  79  51  79  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    50  80  46  81  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27

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546
FXUS64 KMAF 161708
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1208 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tonight over the
forecast area, but may stay to the east of KMAF.  Since probability
is low will hold off on adding TSRA to any of the terminals, but
will amend later this afternoon if necessary.  Also, low
precipitation showers could affect KCNM, KHOB and KPEQ this
afternoon and evening.  If any of these showers materialize, a dry
subcloud layer could result in gusty winds of 30 to 40kt.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail areawide for most, if
not all, of the forecast period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

Cut off low centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
wobble across NM today before lifting northward into CO Friday.
This will increase chance of storms today.  High pressure builds in
behind the low with a few quiet wx days.  Next week another cut off
low works down the West Coast with shortwaves ejecting ahead of it
bringing another shot of storms to the area.

The latest forecasted track of the upper low will take it away from
the area Friday lessening storm chances for the region.  Previous
model runs had taken it directly over the area so today/tonight
should have the best chance of storms for W TX and SE NM.  Friday
and Saturday are now not looking very good for storms except perhaps
the Eastern Permian Basin.

Will have another warm day with more clouds than yesterday.  Temps
will be just a little above normal... highs should be in the 70s and
80s.  Actually expect little change in daily temperatures the next
several days.  Dewpts are in the 50s over the east this morning with
40s out west... so have enough moisture to work with for storms but
would prefer to see these into the 60s.

The surface wind fields look different now that the upper low is
expected to track back to the north.  It appears a Pacific
front/dryline on Friday drags across the area with a west wind
coming in behind it.  A weak Polar front now does not move into the
area until Sunday... will have a north wind but may not see much
cooling with it.

Have late night storms ongoing south of the Pecos River.  There is a
Slight Risk of severe storms today for the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos as thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline
extending across the area.  Supercell storms with large hail and
damaging wind possible and cannot rule out an isolated tornado.
Still have a marginal risk clipping the east Friday and Saturday but
these are farther east now... appears most storms will be east of
the area.  Have trimmed the pops slightly Friday and Saturday as
afraid W TX will quickly be out of the precip.  Low chances of
storms return to the forecast next week

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  53  79  48  /  30  40  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              82  56  80  53  /  40  50  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                82  45  77  44  /  10  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  59  85  59  /  30  30  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  54  81  53  /  30  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  44  70  45  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   77  46  76  44  /  20  30  10  10
MARFA TX                   75  40  73  39  /  10  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  54  80  52  /  30  40  20  10
ODESSA TX                  82  54  80  51  /  30  40  10  10
WINK TX                    85  51  82  46  /  20  20   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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270
FXUS64 KMAF 161141
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
641 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the area through the
forecast period, with only a couple of caveats. First is an area
of high-end MVFR ceilings currently advecting WNW through the Rio
Grande/Pecos Valleys that could impact KFST through sunrise, which
have been handled with a TEMPO. The second caveat would be showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight, mainly expected
to affect west Texas TAF sites. Reductions to MVFR or IFR
conditions in rain would be possible, as well as hail, though
uncertain timing/terminal impact preclude TSRA mention in current
TAFs. Otherwise, breezy south to southwest winds will continue
today, with gusts diminishing after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Cut off low centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
wobble across NM today before lifting northward into CO Friday.
This will increase chance of storms today.  High pressure builds in
behind the low with a few quiet wx days.  Next week another cut off
low works down the West Coast with shortwaves ejecting ahead of it
bringing another shot of storms to the area.

The latest forecasted track of the upper low will take it away from
the area Friday lessening storm chances for the region.  Previous
model runs had taken it directly over the area so today/tonight
should have the best chance of storms for W TX and SE NM.  Friday
and Saturday are now not looking very good for storms except perhaps
the Eastern Permian Basin.

Will have another warm day with more clouds than yesterday.  Temps
will be just a little above normal... highs should be in the 70s and
80s.  Actually expect little change in daily temperatures the next
several days.  Dewpts are in the 50s over the east this morning with
40s out west... so have enough moisture to work with for storms but
would prefer to see these into the 60s.

The surface wind fields look different now that the upper low is
expected to track back to the north.  It appears a Pacific
front/dryline on Friday drags across the area with a west wind
coming in behind it.  A weak Polar front now does not move into the
area until Sunday... will have a north wind but may not see much
cooling with it.

Have late night storms ongoing south of the Pecos River.  There is a
Slight Risk of severe storms today for the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos as thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline
extending across the area.  Supercell storms with large hail and
damaging wind possible and cannot rule out an isolated tornado.
Still have a marginal risk clipping the east Friday and Saturday but
these are farther east now... appears most storms will be east of
the area.  Have trimmed the pops slightly Friday and Saturday as
afraid W TX will quickly be out of the precip.  Low chances of
storms return to the forecast next week

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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907
FXUS64 KMAF 160904
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
404 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Cut off low centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
wobble across NM today before lifting northward into CO Friday.
This will increase chance of storms today.  High pressure builds in
behind the low with a few quiet wx days.  Next week another cut off
low works down the West Coast with shortwaves ejecting ahead of it
bringing another shot of storms to the area.

The latest forecasted track of the upper low will take it away from
the area Friday lessening storm chances for the region.  Previous
model runs had taken it directly over the area so today/tonight
should have the best chance of storms for W TX and SE NM.  Friday
and Saturday are now not looking very good for storms except perhaps
the Eastern Permian Basin.

Will have another warm day with more clouds than yesterday.  Temps
will be just a little above normal... highs should be in the 70s and
80s.  Actually expect little change in daily temperatures the next
several days.  Dewpts are in the 50s over the east this morning with
40s out west... so have enough moisture to work with for storms but
would prefer to see these into the 60s.

The surface wind fields look different now that the upper low is
expected to track back to the north.  It appears a Pacific
front/dryline on Friday drags across the area with a west wind
coming in behind it.  A weak Polar front now does not move into the
area until Sunday... will have a north wind but may not see much
cooling with it.

Have late night storms ongoing south of the Pecos River.  There is a
Slight Risk of severe storms today for the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos as thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline
extending across the area.  Supercell storms with large hail and
damaging wind possible and cannot rule out an isolated tornado.
Still have a marginal risk clipping the east Friday and Saturday but
these are farther east now... appears most storms will be east of
the area.  Have trimmed the pops slightly Friday and Saturday as
afraid W TX will quickly be out of the precip.  Low chances of
storms return to the forecast next week

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  53  79  48  /  30  40  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              82  56  80  53  /  40  50  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                82  45  77  44  /  10  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  59  85  59  /  30  30  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  54  81  53  /  30  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  44  70  45  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   77  46  76  44  /  20  30  10  10
MARFA TX                   75  40  73  39  /  10  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  54  80  52  /  30  40  20  10
ODESSA TX                  82  54  80  51  /  30  40  10  10
WINK TX                    85  51  82  46  /  20  20   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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595
FXUS64 KMAF 160604
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
104 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and storms continue across southwest Texas tonight, though
are expected to remain well south of area TAF sites, with the
exception of KFST which could see some -SHRA over the next few
hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with a scattered cu
deck developing by midmorning Thursday as winds increase from the
south/southwest and become gusty. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible on Thursday afternoon across much of the area, though
timing/coverage uncertainty precludes mention in current TAFs.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Much warmer today, thanks to abundant sunshine and the return of
southerly flow. Most locations should reach near 80 by the end of
daytime heating later this afternoon. An upper low continues to move
toward the four corners region today resulting in SW flow aloft over
SE NM and W TX. CU quickly developing across SW zones and Davis
mountain region with some light echos showing up on radar. This is
due to a number of things... good daytime heating near the surface
trough axis, upper forcing for ascent from a piece of energy moving
around the southern periphery of the upper low, decent mid level
moisture and estimated mid level LRs near 7 C/km. Expect this
activity to continue to develop near the higher terrain this
afternoon and move east over adjacent plains through this evening
where better moisture/instability will reside. Strong to severe
storms will be possible with hail and strong winds the main threats.
LLJ develops tonight across eastern half of CWA, increasing low level
moisture and instability, which may help maintain thunderstorms
overnight and into Thursday morning. Will continue highest chances
across the east overnight.

Another warm day expected Thursday with a pretty decent shot at
severe storms generally across the easter half of the CWA
during the late afternoon/evening timeframe. The upper low will
meander a little closer on Thursday with some weak upper forcing
increasing over the region through the day. Meanwhile, a
well-defined dryline will set up across the east by the afternoon
hours, serving as a focus for convective initiation. Models continue
to show good low level moisture, CAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg
and mid level LRs aoa 7 C/km so the potential for strong to severe
storms still looks good with large hail, strong winds and possibly
an isolated tornado. Eastern zones remain highlighted in a slight
risk so will go ahead and include mention of severe storms in the
grids. Otherwise, thunderstorms will likely continue into the
overnight hours as the dryline retreats back west.

The upper low will slowly begin to move eastward Friday and
eventually make its way into the Central Plains by the weekend. The
advancing/retreating dryline will hang around Friday and Saturday
and thunderstorm chances will continue for eastern portions of the
region through Saturday. The GFS is no longer advertising a cold
front on Friday and has come more in line with the
NAM/ECMWF/Canadian with high temps near 80 most locations. Beyond
Saturday, precip chances will diminish as dry, westerly flow
develops aloft. A dry, weak cold front will sink south into the
region Sunday night, resulting in slightly cooler temps Monday. Rain
chances return to the forecast Tuesday but will only hold onto
slight chances attm.

FIRE WEATHER...
Fire wx concerns do increase into Sat, but mainly across the far w
where fuels haven`t transitioned to green. Soundings for Thur
indicate RF wx will be most likely in NW reaches of GDP Mtns into
Dunken, farther SE in GDP NP it will be difficult to hit RF wx for
3hrs, mainly due to RH. A few storms may develop within the dry air
Thursday across the southeast plains, western Basin, and Trans
Pecos increaing potential for dry lightning. Upper low will be the n
Fri, but the stronger wind fields will have passed Thursday leaving
dry air in place. Dry air will push into the Basin, but fuels are
mostly green. In the extended any potential for critical fire wx
will remain confined to the GDP Mtns (and low end at that) where the
dry air will mostly persist. Robust winds fields cannot materialize
with upper systems taking such far swd tracks.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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813
FXUS64 KMAF 152302
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers are developing across the area this afternoon
but there is not much instability so lightning remains isolated.
Therefore will carry -SHRA in the TAFs and amend to TS if a
stronger cell heads toward one of the sites. VFR conditions
expected through the period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Much warmer today, thanks to abundant sunshine and the return of
southerly flow. Most locations should reach near 80 by the end of
daytime heating later this afternoon. An upper low continues to move
toward the four corners region today resulting in SW flow aloft over
SE NM and W TX. CU quickly developing across SW zones and Davis
mountain region with some light echos showing up on radar. This is
due to a number of things... good daytime heating near the surface
trough axis, upper forcing for ascent from a piece of energy moving
around the southern periphery of the upper low, decent mid level
moisture and estimated mid level LRs near 7 C/km. Expect this
activity to continue to develop near the higher terrain this
afternoon and move east over adjacent plains through this evening
where better moisture/instability will reside. Strong to severe
storms will be possible with hail and strong winds the main threats.
LLJ develops tonight across eastern half of CWA, increasing low level
moisture and instability, which may help maintain thunderstorms
overnight and into Thursday morning. Will continue highest chances
across the east overnight.

Another warm day expected Thursday with a pretty decent shot at
severe storms generally across the easter half of the CWA
during the late afternoon/evening timeframe. The upper low will
meander a little closer on Thursday with some weak upper forcing
increasing over the region through the day. Meanwhile, a
well-defined dryline will set up across the east by the afternoon
hours, serving as a focus for convective initiation. Models continue
to show good low level moisture, CAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg
and mid level LRs aoa 7 C/km so the potential for strong to severe
storms still looks good with large hail, strong winds and possibly
an isolated tornado. Eastern zones remain highlighted in a slight
risk so will go ahead and include mention of severe storms in the
grids. Otherwise, thunderstorms will likely continue into the
overnight hours as the dryline retreats back west.

The upper low will slowly begin to move eastward Friday and
eventually make its way into the Central Plains by the weekend. The
advancing/retreating dryline will hang around Friday and Saturday
and thunderstorm chances will continue for eastern portions of the
region through Saturday. The GFS is no longer advertising a cold
front on Friday and has come more in line with the
NAM/ECMWF/Canadian with high temps near 80 most locations. Beyond
Saturday, precip chances will diminish as dry, westerly flow
develops aloft. A dry, weak cold front will sink south into the
region Sunday night, resulting in slightly cooler temps Monday. Rain
chances return to the forecast Tuesday but will only hold onto
slight chances attm.

FIRE WEATHER...
Fire wx concerns do increase into Sat, but mainly across the far w
where fuels haven`t transitioned to green. Soundings for Thur
indicate RF wx will be most likely in NW reaches of GDP Mtns into
Dunken, farther SE in GDP NP it will be difficult to hit RF wx for
3hrs, mainly due to RH. A few storms may develop within the dry air
Thursday across the southeast plains, western Basin, and Trans
Pecos increaing potential for dry lightning. Upper low will be the n
Fri, but the stronger wind fields will have passed Thursday leaving
dry air in place. Dry air will push into the Basin, but fuels are
mostly green. In the extended any potential for critical fire wx
will remain confined to the GDP Mtns (and low end at that) where the
dry air will mostly persist. Robust winds fields cannot materialize
with upper systems taking such far swd tracks.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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563
FXUS64 KMAF 151922
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
222 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Much warmer today, thanks to abundant sunshine and the return of
southerly flow. Most locations should reach near 80 by the end of
daytime heating later this afternoon. An upper low continues to move
toward the four corners region today resulting in SW flow aloft over
SE NM and W TX. CU quickly developing across SW zones and Davis
mountain region with some light echos showing up on radar. This is
due to a number of things... good daytime heating near the surface
trough axis, upper forcing for ascent from a piece of energy moving
around the southern periphery of the upper low, decent mid level
moisture and estimated mid level LRs near 7 C/km. Expect this
activity to continue to develop near the higher terrain this
afternoon and move east over adjacent plains through this evening
where better moisture/instability will reside. Strong to severe
storms will be possible with hail and strong winds the main threats.
LLJ develops tonight across eastern half of CWA, increasing low level
moisture and instability, which may help maintain thunderstorms
overnight and into Thursday morning. Will continue highest chances
across the east overnight.

Another warm day expected Thursday with a pretty decent shot at
severe storms generally across the easter half of the CWA
during the late afternoon/evening timeframe. The upper low will
meander a little closer on Thursday with some weak upper forcing
increasing over the region through the day. Meanwhile, a
well-defined dryline will set up across the east by the afternoon
hours, serving as a focus for convective initiation. Models continue
to show good low level moisture, CAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg
and mid level LRs aoa 7 C/km so the potential for strong to severe
storms still looks good with large hail, strong winds and possibly
an isolated tornado. Eastern zones remain highlighted in a slight
risk so will go ahead and include mention of severe storms in the
grids. Otherwise, thunderstorms will likely continue into the
overnight hours as the dryline retreats back west.

The upper low will slowly begin to move eastward Friday and
eventually make its way into the Central Plains by the weekend. The
advancing/retreating dryline will hang around Friday and Saturday
and thunderstorm chances will continue for eastern portions of the
region through Saturday. The GFS is no longer advertising a cold
front on Friday and has come more in line with the
NAM/ECMWF/Canadian with high temps near 80 most locations. Beyond
Saturday, precip chances will diminish as dry, westerly flow
develops aloft. A dry, weak cold front will sink south into the
region Sunday night, resulting in slightly cooler temps Monday. Rain
chances return to the forecast Tuesday but will only hold onto
slight chances attm.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire wx concerns do increase into Sat, but mainly across the far w
where fuels haven`t transitioned to green. Soundings for Thur
indicate RF wx will be most likely in NW reaches of GDP Mtns into
Dunken, farther SE in GDP NP it will be difficult to hit RF wx for
3hrs, mainly due to RH. A few storms may develop within the dry air
Thursday across the southeast plains, western Basin, and Trans
Pecos increaing potential for dry lightning. Upper low will be the n
Fri, but the stronger wind fields will have passed Thursday leaving
dry air in place. Dry air will push into the Basin, but fuels are
mostly green. In the extended any potential for critical fire wx
will remain confined to the GDP Mtns (and low end at that) where the
dry air will mostly persist. Robust winds fields cannot materialize
with upper systems taking such far swd tracks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  79  52  76  /  30  40  40  10
BIG SPRING TX              61  81  56  77  /  30  50  50  30
CARLSBAD NM                53  78  45  75  /  20  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  61  84  59  83  /  30  40  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  83  54  78  /  30  30  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  70  44  67  /  20  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                   52  75  46  73  /  30  30  30  10
MARFA TX                   46  75  41  73  /  20  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  80  55  77  /  30  40  40  10
ODESSA TX                  60  81  54  77  /  30  40  40  10
WINK TX                    56  83  51  79  /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/27

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602
FXUS64 KMAF 151731
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A well mixed atmosphere will result in some gusty winds this PM. Mostly
s winds this PM and overnight, with stronger winds at FST, 15-20kts.
Main concern for the overnight is the potential for high based TSRA.
Model QPF continues to suggest tstms will develop and move e-ne. Have
opted to included PROB30 groups at PEQ/INK/HOB/CNM from 03Z-09Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
light south winds this morning increasing this afternoon to around
12KT, with some gusts to 18-20KT possible. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight for
much of the area, but have not included mention in TAFs at this
time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Watching a fast approaching upper low diving out of the NW across
the Intermountain West.  This low will wobble as it drops south
across CO and NM and brings a chance of storms to the region.  This
low will spin over NM Thursday through Saturday before weakening
and lifting east Saturday night.  On Sunday look for weak high
pressure aloft to begin to return to the area.

Will start the morning off with clear skies for nearly all of W TX
and SE NM.  Have been keeping an eye on possible fog developing this
morning but so far have not seen any.  Have dewpts in the 40s for
most of the region this morning... depending what model you believe
these will increase into the 50s or 60s in the next 24 hrs so should
be enough for storm development.  Temps will be warmer today with
abundant sunshine... highs today and Thursday will be in the 70s
and 80s. The next weak cold front looks to be a little slower and
not expected to move through until late Friday but should only be
a little cooler.  Look for temps to slowly increase through the
extended.

Looking at the potential of severe wx over the next several days.
Thunderstorm chances return to the forecast today and increase
tonight.  Pops continue mainly for the east through Saturday night.
The latest SWODY1 leaves the Permian Basin... Lower Trans Pecos...
and Big Bend/Marfa Plateau in a marginal risk of severe today and
tonight with the better chance being tonight.  Will have some of the
needed ingredients for severe wx such as an approaching upper low...
daytime heating... and decent moisture... but others features such
as a good surface focus look to be lacking.  Orographic lift may be
enough to get storms started but upslope flow not strong.  Will
have enough shear that if storms get started could see a supercell
storm or two.  Thursday looks to be the bigger severe wx day and
SWODY2 has a slight risk east of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line
for storms possibly developing along a dryline.  These storms may
actual be during the evening as the dryline retreats westward.
Will highlight severe threat in the HWO.  With a cut off low just
west of the area will have potential for severe wx continuing
Friday and Saturday.  After the low moves east will have a couple
days of quiet wx before storm chances begin to creep back into the
forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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694
FXUS64 KMAF 151120
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
light south winds this morning increasing this afternoon to around
12KT, with some gusts to 18-20KT possible. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight for
much of the area, but have not included mention in TAFs at this
time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Watching a fast approaching upper low diving out of the NW across
the Intermountain West.  This low will wobble as it drops south
across CO and NM and brings a chance of storms to the region.  This
low will spin over NM Thursday through Saturday before weakening
and lifting east Saturday night.  On Sunday look for weak high
pressure aloft to begin to return to the area.

Will start the morning off with clear skies for nearly all of W TX
and SE NM.  Have been keeping an eye on possible fog developing this
morning but so far have not seen any.  Have dewpts in the 40s for
most of the region this morning... depending what model you believe
these will increase into the 50s or 60s in the next 24 hrs so should
be enough for storm development.  Temps will be warmer today with
abundant sunshine... highs today and Thursday will be in the 70s
and 80s. The next weak cold front looks to be a little slower and
not expected to move through until late Friday but should only be
a little cooler.  Look for temps to slowly increase through the
extended.

Looking at the potential of severe wx over the next several days.
Thunderstorm chances return to the forecast today and increase
tonight.  Pops continue mainly for the east through Saturday night.
The latest SWODY1 leaves the Permian Basin... Lower Trans Pecos...
and Big Bend/Marfa Plateau in a marginal risk of severe today and
tonight with the better chance being tonight.  Will have some of the
needed ingredients for severe wx such as an approaching upper low...
daytime heating... and decent moisture... but others features such
as a good surface focus look to be lacking.  Orograpic lift may be
enough to get storms started but upslope flow not strong.  Will
have enough shear that if storms get started could see a supercell
storm or two.  Thursday looks to be the bigger severe wx day and
SWODY2 has a slight risk east of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line
for storms possibly developing along a dryline.  These storms may
actual be during the evening as the dryline retreats westward.
Will hightlight severe threat in the HWO.  With a cut off low just
west of the area will have potential for severe wx continuing
Friday and Saturday.  After the low moves east will have a couple
days of quiet wx before storm chances begin to creep back into the
forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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875
FXUS64 KMAF 150929
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
429 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Watching a fast approaching upper low diving out of the NW across
the Intermountain West.  This low will wobble as it drops south
across CO and NM and brings a chance of storms to the region.  This
low will spin over NM Thursday through Saturday before weakening
and lifting east Saturday night.  On Sunday look for weak high
pressure aloft to begin to return to the area.

Will start the morning off with clear skies for nearly all of W TX
and SE NM.  Have been keeping an eye on possible fog developing this
morning but so far have not seen any.  Have dewpts in the 40s for
most of the region this morning... depending what model you believe
these will increase into the 50s or 60s in the next 24 hrs so should
be enough for storm development.  Temps will be warmer today with
abundant sunshine... highs today and Thursday will be in the 70s
and 80s. The next weak cold front looks to be a little slower and
not expected to move through until late Friday but should only be
a little cooler.  Look for temps to slowly increase through the
extended.

Looking at the potential of severe wx over the next several days.
Thunderstorm chances return to the forecast today and increase
tonight.  Pops continue mainly for the east through Saturday night.
The latest SWODY1 leaves the Permian Basin... Lower Trans Pecos...
and Big Bend/Marfa Plateau in a marginal risk of severe today and
tonight with the better chance being tonight.  Will have some of the
needed ingredients for severe wx such as an approaching upper low...
daytime heating... and decent moisture... but others features such
as a good surface focus look to be lacking.  Orograpic lift may be
enough to get storms started but upslope flow not strong.  Will
have enough shear that if storms get started could see a supercell
storm or two.  Thursday looks to be the bigger severe wx day and
SWODY2 has a slight risk east of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line
for storms possibly developing along a dryline.  These storms may
actual be during the evening as the dryline retreats westward.
Will hightlight severe threat in the HWO.  With a cut off low just
west of the area will have potential for severe wx continuing
Friday and Saturday.  After the low moves east will have a couple
days of quiet wx before storm chances begin to creep back into the
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 79  58  80  53  /  20  30  20  40
BIG SPRING TX              81  61  82  55  /  10  30  50  50
CARLSBAD NM                80  52  79  45  /  20  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  83  60  85  58  /  20  30  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  58  83  54  /  20  40  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  50  70  44  /  20  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   77  53  76  47  /  20  20  20  30
MARFA TX                   76  44  76  39  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    80  60  81  55  /  10  30  30  40
ODESSA TX                  80  60  81  54  /  20  30  30  40
WINK TX                    83  56  84  53  /  20  30  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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325
FXUS64 KMAF 150534
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with light
south winds increasing to around 12KT Wednesday afternoon. While
showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening, have not included in the TAF at this time due to
uncertainties in timing/coverage.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...
After a relatively cool morning (lows in the 40s), afternoon
temperatures have been slow to warm due to the stubborn cloud cover.
Expecting clouds to thin through peak heating and temps should
increase into the 60s most places this afternoon. Most areas remain
dry this afternoon however areas across the higher terrain could
still see an isolated thunderstorm or two before the day is over.
Tonight, expect clearing skies and lows generally in the mid 40s to
low 50s. Much warmer Wednesday/Thursday with decent south/southwest
winds in place due to lee troughing extending southward toward the
region.

Attention then turns to an upper trough entering the PacNW
today. Models show this feature cutting off and diving south toward
the four corners region by Wednesday night, then meandering just NW
of the CWA through the end of the week. Meanwhile, models generate
some scattered QPF on Wednesday but not really seeing a clear focus
for this precip. That being said, good daytime heating near the
surface trough axis may be enough to warrant slight chances across
western zones during the afternoon and early evening hours. It looks
to be extremely dry in the lower levels but with somewhat decent mid
level moisture and mid level LRs pushing 9 C/km, dry thunderstorms
producing very strong winds would be the main threat. Thunderstorm
chances look to continue Wednesday night into Thursday as the upper
low meanders east, increasing upper forcing for ascent across the
region. In addition, a dryline will setup across eastern zones
Thursday afternoon, serving as a focus for thunderstorms across
these areas. Could definitely see a potential for severe weather
during this time with models showing CAPE values around 1500-2000
J/kg (3000 J/kg according to the NAM) at times and mid level LRs
pushing 8 C/km. Will hold off on mention of severe in the grids and
continue to monitor the potential closely.

Friday, thunderstorm chances will be confined to eastern zones where
best upper forcing and moisture reside as the upper low slowly shifts
eastward. The GFS remains the outlier in bringing the upper low
across the region quicker, ending precip earlier Friday with the
passage of a cold front. On the other hand the ECMWF/NAM/Canadian
hold the upper low back, potentially holding onto rain chances
across the east through Saturday. For now, will continue with at
least slight chance PoPs across the north and east through Saturday.
WRT high temps on Friday, will continue to forecast above MEX
guidance given the GFS is the only model advertising the cold front
attm. Beyond Saturday, precip chances will diminish as the upper low
shifts east of the region. Dry, westerly flow aloft will develop by
Sunday with highs warming into the upper 70s and low 80s. Models
suggest a dry cold front moving through the region Monday, cooling
temps ever so slightly. This will be short-lived with south winds
quickly returning Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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787
FXUS64 KMAF 142255
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...
After a relatively cool morning (lows in the 40s), afternoon
temperatures have been slow to warm due to the stubborn cloud cover.
Expecting clouds to thin through peak heating and temps should
increase into the 60s most places this afternoon. Most areas remain
dry this afternoon however areas across the higher terrain could
still see an isolated thunderstorm or two before the day is over.
Tonight, expect clearing skies and lows generally in the mid 40s to
low 50s. Much warmer Wednesday/Thursday with decent south/southwest
winds in place due to lee troughing extending southward toward the
region.

Attention then turns to an upper trough entering the PacNW
today. Models show this feature cutting off and diving south toward
the four corners region by Wednesday night, then meandering just NW
of the CWA through the end of the week. Meanwhile, models generate
some scattered QPF on Wednesday but not really seeing a clear focus
for this precip. That being said, good daytime heating near the
surface trough axis may be enough to warrant slight chances across
western zones during the afternoon and early evening hours. It looks
to be extremely dry in the lower levels but with somewhat decent mid
level moisture and mid level LRs pushing 9 C/km, dry thunderstorms
producing very strong winds would be the main threat. Thunderstorm
chances look to continue Wednesday night into Thursday as the upper
low meanders east, increasing upper forcing for ascent across the
region. In addition, a dryline will setup across eastern zones
Thursday afternoon, serving as a focus for thunderstorms across
these areas. Could definitely see a potential for severe weather
during this time with models showing CAPE values around 1500-2000
J/kg (3000 J/kg according to the NAM) at times and mid level LRs
pushing 8 C/km. Will hold off on mention of severe in the grids and
continue to monitor the potential closely.

Friday, thunderstorm chances will be confined to eastern zones where
best upper forcing and moisture reside as the upper low slowly shifts
eastward. The GFS remains the outlier in bringing the upper low
across the region quicker, ending precip earlier Friday with the
passage of a cold front. On the other hand the ECMWF/NAM/Canadian
hold the upper low back, potentially holding onto rain chances
across the east through Saturday. For now, will continue with at
least slight chance PoPs across the north and east through Saturday.
WRT high temps on Friday, will continue to forecast above MEX
guidance given the GFS is the only model advertising the cold front
attm. Beyond Saturday, precip chances will diminish as the upper low
shifts east of the region. Dry, westerly flow aloft will develop by
Sunday with highs warming into the upper 70s and low 80s. Models
suggest a dry cold front moving through the region Monday, cooling
temps ever so slightly. This will be short-lived with south winds
quickly returning Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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450
FXUS64 KMAF 141944
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
244 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
After a relatively cool morning (lows in the 40s), afternoon
temperatures have been slow to warm due to the stubborn cloud cover.
Expecting clouds to thin through peak heating and temps should
increase into the 60s most places this afternoon. Most areas remain
dry this afternoon however areas across the higher terrain could
still see an isolated thunderstorm or two before the day is over.
Tonight, expect clearing skies and lows generally in the mid 40s to
low 50s. Much warmer Wednesday/Thursday with decent south/southwest
winds in place due to lee troughing extending southward toward the
region.

Attention then turns to an upper trough entering the PacNW
today. Models show this feature cutting off and diving south toward
the four corners region by Wednesday night, then meandering just NW
of the CWA through the end of the week. Meanwhile, models generate
some scattered QPF on Wednesday but not really seeing a clear focus
for this precip. That being said, good daytime heating near the
surface trough axis may be enough to warrant slight chances across
western zones during the afternoon and early evening hours. It looks
to be extremely dry in the lower levels but with somewhat decent mid
level moisture and mid level LRs pushing 9 C/km, dry thunderstorms
producing very strong winds would be the main threat. Thunderstorm
chances look to continue Wednesday night into Thursday as the upper
low meanders east, increasing upper forcing for ascent across the
region. In addition, a dryline will setup across eastern zones
Thursday afternoon, serving as a focus for thunderstorms across
these areas. Could definitely see a potential for severe weather
during this time with models showing CAPE values around 1500-2000
J/kg (3000 J/kg according to the NAM) at times and mid level LRs
pushing 8 C/km. Will hold off on mention of severe in the grids and
continue to monitor the potential closely.

Friday, thunderstorm chances will be confined to eastern zones where
best upper forcing and moisture reside as the upper low slowly shifts
eastward. The GFS remains the outlier in bringing the upper low
across the region quicker, ending precip earlier Friday with the
passage of a cold front. On the other hand the ECMWF/NAM/Canadian
hold the upper low back, potentially holding onto rain chances
across the east through Saturday. For now, will continue with at
least slight chance PoPs across the north and east through Saturday.
WRT high temps on Friday, will continue to forecast above MEX
guidance given the GFS is the only model advertising the cold front
attm. Beyond Saturday, precip chances will diminish as the upper low
shifts east of the region. Dry, westerly flow aloft will develop by
Sunday with highs warming into the upper 70s and low 80s. Models
suggest a dry cold front moving through the region Monday, cooling
temps ever so slightly. This will be short-lived with south winds
quickly returning Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 48  80  56  78  /   0  20  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              50  83  61  81  /   0  10  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                46  82  52  77  /   0  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  54  83  61  84  /   0  20  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           51  83  58  82  /   0  20  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          48  74  50  69  /   0  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   46  79  51  74  /   0  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   41  75  47  75  /   0  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    49  82  61  80  /   0  10  30  30
ODESSA TX                  49  82  60  80  /   0  20  30  30
WINK TX                    48  83  56  83  /   0  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/27

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978
FXUS64 KMAF 141707
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS are slow to dissipate at MAF/FST/INK/PEQ, but CIGS will
gradually lift to at least 040 by 21Z. VFR expected thru the night
with winds less than 10kts. Winds will increase approx 15Z Wed
with another chance for SHRA/TSRA Wed PM, but too low of a probability
to included in TAFS for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Light precipitation across the area has come to an end, leaving a
wide swath of MVFR ceilings in place affecting west Texas TAF
sites. Expect a gradual improvement to VFR conditions for KINK,
KMAF, and KPEQ by mid-morning, with KFST likely remaining MVFR
until early afternoon before improving. This afternoon onward, VFR
conditions will prevail across all TAF sites, with winds becoming
light and variable to light southeasterly through the end of the
forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought rain to the area has moved off to the
northeast this morning.  The next upper trough will move ashore the
NW coast today quickly moving east before developing into a closed
low over WY early Wednesday.  This low cuts off and drops southward
late Wednesday and Thursday moving over the region Friday.  This low
slowly wobbles east on Saturday with high pressure aloft building in
behind it.

The upper low produced heavy rain yesterday across portions of the
Northern Permian Basin that resulted in flash flooding.  Radar indicates
a number of locations across Gaines... Dawson... Borden and Mitchell
received 5 to 6 inches of rain with the heaviest of up to 9 inches
that fell in Dawson County south of Lamesa.  Will see how this
compares to measured amounts as reports drift in this morning.

Will have post frontal conditions today with cool morning temps and
a chilly north wind.  Later today the wind should come back around
to the south as a new leeside trough develops.  This will also aid
the warmup.  Highs generally in the 60s today with 70s/80s on
Wednesday and Thursday.  Models bring another front into the area
Thursday but want to hang it up over the CWA and not push it
through the region till Friday.

Will have more chances of rain this week as the wet pattern of
numerous lows/troughs continues.  Midland International Airport
only reported .03 inch of rain yesterday but is over 3 inches above
normal in precipitation for the year.  Today should be mainly dry
but models do develop some light precip over the Davis Mtns in the
afternoon... will keep mention of isolated storms there.  Model qpf
starts developing more significant precip on Wednesday expanding
through the night.  Some disagreement as to precip chances on
Thursday as some models going mainly dry while others develop lots
of precip over the east.  Will also have the frontal boundary in the
area that could be a focus for convection Thursday/Friday.  With the
upper low wandering around the area there will be a decent chance of
storms Wednesday through Friday with pops decreasing on Saturday as
it moves east.  May see some strong to severe storms late Wednesday
through Friday and will mention in HWO.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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671
FXUS64 KMAF 141112
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Light precipitation across the area has come to an end, leaving a
wide swath of MVFR ceilings in place affecting west Texas TAF
sites. Expect a gradual improvement to VFR conditions for KINK,
KMAF, and KPEQ by mid-morning, with KFST likely remaining MVFR
until early afternoon before improving. This afternoon onward, VFR
conditions will prevail across all TAF sites, with winds becoming
light and variable to light southeasterly through the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought rain to the area has moved off to the
northeast this morning.  The next upper trough will move ashore the
NW coast today quickly moving east before developing into a closed
low over WY early Wednesday.  This low cuts off and drops southward
late Wednesday and Thursday moving over the region Friday.  This low
slowly wobbles east on Saturday with high pressure aloft building in
behind it.

The upper low produced heavy rain yesterday across portions of the
Northern Permian Basin that resulted in flash flooding.  Radar indicates
a number of locations across Gaines... Dawson... Borden and Mitchell
received 5 to 6 inches of rain with the heaviest of up to 9 inches
that fell in Dawson County south of Lamesa.  Will see how this
compares to measured amounts as reports drift in this morning.

Will have post frontal conditions today with cool morning temps and
a chilly north wind.  Later today the wind should come back around
to the south as a new leeside trough develops.  This will also aid
the warmup.  Highs generally in the 60s today with 70s/80s on
Wednesday and Thursday.  Models bring another front into the area
Thursday but want to hang it up over the CWA and not push it
through the region till Friday.

Will have more chances of rain this week as the wet pattern of
numerous lows/troughs continues.  Midland International Airport
only reported .03 inch of rain yesterday but is over 3 inches above
normal in precipitation for the year.  Today should be mainly dry
but models do develop some light precip over the Davis Mtns in the
afternoon... will keep mention of isolated storms there.  Model qpf
starts developing more significant precip on Wednesday expanding
through the night.  Some disagreement as to precip chances on
Thursday as some models going mainly dry while others develop lots
of precip over the east.  Will also have the frontal boundary in the
area that could be a focus for convection Thursday/Friday.  With the
upper low wandering around the area there will be a decent chance of
storms Wednesday through Friday with pops decreasing on Saturday as
it moves east.  May see some strong to severe storms late Wednesday
through Friday and will mention in HWO.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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522
FXUS64 KMAF 140907
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
407 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought rain to the area has moved off to the
northeast this morning.  The next upper trough will move ashore the
NW coast today quickly moving east before developing into a closed
low over WY early Wednesday.  This low cuts off and drops southward
late Wednesday and Thursday moving over the region Friday.  This low
slowly wobbles east on Saturday with high pressure aloft building in
behind it.

The upper low produced heavy rain yesterday across portions of the
Northern Permian Basin that resulted in flash flooding.  Radar indicates
a number of locations across Gaines... Dawson... Borden and Mitchell
received 5 to 6 inches of rain with the heaviest of up to 9 inches
that fell in Dawson County south of Lamesa.  Will see how this
compares to measured amounts as reports drift in this morning.

Will have post frontal conditions today with cool morning temps and
a chilly north wind.  Later today the wind should come back around
to the south as a new leeside trough develops.  This will also aid
the warmup.  Highs generally in the 60s today with 70s/80s on
Wednesday and Thursday.  Models bring another front into the area
Thursday but want to hang it up over the CWA and not push it
through the region till Friday.

Will have more chances of rain this week as the wet pattern of
numerous lows/troughs continues.  Midland International Airport
only reported .03 inch of rain yesterday but is over 3 inches above
normal in precipitation for the year.  Today should be mainly dry
but models do develop some light precip over the Davis Mtns in the
afternoon... will keep mention of isolated storms there.  Model qpf
starts developing more significant precip on Wednesday expanding
through the night.  Some disagreement as to precip chances on
Thursday as some models going mainly dry while others develop lots
of precip over the east.  Will also have the frontal boundary in the
area that could be a focus for convection Thursday/Friday.  With the
upper low wandering around the area there will be a decent chance of
storms Wednesday through Friday with pops decreasing on Saturday as
it moves east.  May see some strong to severe storms late Wednesday
through Friday and will mention in HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  49  80  57  /  10  10  10  30
BIG SPRING TX              66  50  82  60  /   0  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                66  47  81  52  /  10   0  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  74  55  84  63  /  10  10  20  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  52  83  59  /  10  10  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  49  72  50  /  10   0  20  20
HOBBS NM                   64  46  79  52  /  10   0  20  30
MARFA TX                   65  40  75  47  /  10  10  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  50  81  60  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  66  51  81  59  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                    68  49  84  56  /  10   0  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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016
FXUS64 KMAF 140553
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1253 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Some patchy light showers continue to slowly drift south through
the area, though are expected to continue to weaken over the next
couple of hours. West Texas TAF sites will continue to see
prevailing MVFR conditions tonight, with brief IFR possible in
passing showers. An improvement to VFR conditions is expected by
Tuesday morning for KMAF, KINK, and KPEQ, with KFST improving by
around 18Z Tuesday. Breezy northeast winds will diminish over the
next several hours as well, and will become light and variable by
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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452
FXUS64 KMAF 140223 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
919 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast to cancel the Flash Flood Watch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The heavy rain has moved out of the area with mostly light rain
across the Permian Basin now.  Due to the decrease in rain intensity
and no more heavy rain expected through tonight across the area,
have decided to cancel the Flash Flood Watch.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Areas of rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the
area through the evening hours and into the overnight period.  There
is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the area Tuesday
afternoon but chances are too small to include in the TAFs at this
time.  Low ceilings will develop and move into much of the area this
evening and are expected to remain into the morning hours for MAF,
FST, and PEQ.  Winds will remain gusty out of the north through this
evening and will decrease in strength later tonight.  Winds will
become light and variable Tuesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

UPDATE...

Updated forecast to expand the Flash Flood Watch to include Mitchell
and Scurry Counties.

DISCUSSION...

Due to heavy rainfall across the Western Low Rolling Plains, have
decided to expanded the Flash Flood Watch.  Have received recent
reports of heavy rainfall across this area and additional rainfall
is expected this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low INVOF Permian Basin with cold front
already into the PB. Cold pool aloft/surface boundary/abundant deep
mstr proving to be a good combination for SHRA/TSRA development.
Boundary and slow movement of upper low is providing enhancement to
heavy rain potential. A few severe storms are possible too with
CAPES around 1500 J/KG, deep shear of 35kts, and SRH enhancement
along boundary. We`ve already received a report of a funnel in
Howard Co, which we expect is more a "tropical funnel" type than
otherwise, and we expect more reports of these. The flash flood
watch will continue into the mid evening. Categorical PoPs this
afternoon will transition to scattered-likely after 00Z with heavy
rain/severe storms warranted until mid evening. Unseasonably cool
temps will persist into Tue PM, even though precip will end Tue.
Precip quickly returns to the fcst Wed PM as deepening trof moves
into the 4 Corners area with very steep LR/s across NM and W TX.
Dwpnts will only be around 40, so high based windy/little precip
producing showers/storms will be favored, at least initially. The
upper low will or may become closed over NM Thur PM and precip will
be warranted across ern half of the CWFA within deeper mstr. Upper
low lingers across the plains into Friday so precip is still
warranted, but uncertainty in position/location make PoP fcst
difficult. GFS kicks out low late Fri/Sat and ECMWF holds it west a
little longer, so blended fcst seems best way to go.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  64  48  80  /  30  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              48  66  50  82  /  30  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                45  66  47  80  /  30  10   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  55  74  54  83  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           47  68  51  82  /  30  20  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          40  62  48  72  /  30  10   0  20
HOBBS NM                   43  63  45  78  /  30  10   0  20
MARFA TX                   42  65  41  74  /  20  20  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  66  49  81  /  30  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  46  66  50  81  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    47  68  48  84  /  20  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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