Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 031459

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
959 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

First period pops.


Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this morning across
the Permian Basin. Have updated the forecast to expand pops today
farther east.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/

See 12Z aviation discussion below.

VFR conditions are expected through the period, except perhaps
brief MVFR/IFR in heavier SHRA/TS though this is not indicated in
the TAF due to low confidence of when/if this would happen. Also
kept TS out of the TAFs also due to low confidence of timing
though 20-02Z seems the most likely time period. Winds will be
east/southeasterly except variable in and around convection.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/

A large upper level trough across the Rockies will move east and
weaken through tonight as another much strong upper low digs
southward along the West Coast. Deep southwesterly flow aloft will
develop this weekend in this scenario and allow some of the high
and mid level moisture from the remains of Marty in the eastern
Pacific to head toward the forecast area. The chance of showers
and thunderstorms will exist through Sunday night mainly from the
central Permian Basin westward with the best chance across
southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in the
backed mid level flow with aid from topography. Temperatures will
cool today and more so Sunday with increasing cloud cover and
decreasing heights.

For Monday and Tuesday the aforementioned upper level storm system
is forecast to slowly move from California to near the Four
Corners Region. Continued southwesterly flow aloft with embedded
disturbances ahead of this system will result in a slight chance
to a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly west of the
central Permian Basin with the best chance across southeast New
Mexico and the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains closer to the upper
level storm system. Progged weak lapse rates and weak instability
suggest thunderstorms will remain below severe limits these days.

By next Wednesday through Friday precipitation chances look like
they will increase significantly and also spread eastward into
the central and eastern Permian as the upper level storm system
continues to push east toward the region. There are still some
differences in the timing of this system, but it appears that the
GFS model is trending toward a slower, more southern and wetter
solution as depicted in the ECMWF and CMC guidance. Mainly at or
below normal temperatures are expected next week with abundant
cloud cover expected with cyclonic flow aloft.


BIG SPRING TX                  84  58  82  57  /  20  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    81  61  72  57  /  50  70  40  40
DRYDEN TX                      88  65  83  66  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               87  62  83  58  /  20  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX              79  55  69  51  /  50  70  50  50
HOBBS NM                       78  56  74  55  /  40  50  30  30
MARFA TX                       84  57  72  56  /  40  40  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        84  59  80  57  /  20  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                      84  59  81  56  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                        86  64  82  61  /  30  50  30  30




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