Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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423
FXUS64 KMAF 160914
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
414 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the main weather
feature through Friday resulting in mostly clear skies and
much above normal temperatures. For today, a surface trough
with low level thermal ridging and downslope flow will result
in near record to high temperatures across southeast New Mexico
and west Texas.

A couple of upper level low pressure areas across the northern
states will consolidate over the Great Lakes and drop a cold front
south into the forecast area Friday. The front is forecast to
gradually sink south and west toward the mountains and Rio Grande
River by Saturday with temperatures knocked back to more normal
values Saturday and Sunday. Little precipitation is expected
this weekend. One exception could be Saturday for northern
portions of the southeast New Mexico plains as a weak upper level
trough across northern Mexico on Friday weakens and moves
northeast and clips southeast New Mexico with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

A stronger southern stream system is forecast to track across
northern Mexico late Sunday through next Tuesday resulting in an
increase chance of thunderstorms across the forecast area.
The higher QPF output on the ECMWF looks more reasonable than the
GFS given the depiction of a negatively tilted upper system.
This upper low will inhibit surface lee trough formation and low
level easterly flow should keep high temperatures near to slightly
below normal values Monday and Tuesday.

By late Tuesday through next Thursday yet another potent upper
level storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting
in a continued chance of thunderstorms next Wednesday and Thursday.
A slower and more amplified ECMWF solution would result in a
higher chance of convection with heavier rainfall.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 91  51  86  51  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  53  86  53  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                90  49  89  50  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  56  94  56  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  59  92  59  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          85  60  84  53  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   92  49  82  51  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   88  44  89  44  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    92  52  87  51  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  92  54  88  52  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    95  50  90  57  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

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