Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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086
FXUS64 KMAF 242030
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
230 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level system passing to the north of the region has
resulted in the return of windy to very windy conditions across
the area today, with the highest gusts so far around 70 MPH
reported in the Guadalupe Mountains. Expect the wind to continue
through the remainder of the afternoon, perhaps increasing over
the next hour or two, particularly across the plains, where areas
of blowing dust are possible. Winds will decrease after sunset
this evening, thus, will go ahead and let the High Wind Warning
and Wind Advisory continue until 6 PM CST/5 PM MST as scheduled.
Downslope warming has yielded another unseasonably warm day today,
with afternoon highs expected to reach into the 60s across
Southeast New Mexico to the 80s across the Stockton Plateau and
Rio Grande Valley. Highs in the upper 50s are expected across
higher terrain. The combination of the warm temperatures and windy
conditions have resulted in low relative humidity and Critical
Fire Weather Conditions across portions of the Big Bend Area,
Marfa Plateau, and Presidio Valley. A Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for these areas until early this evening. Please see the
Fire Weather Discussion below for additional details.

A fairly benign pattern is expected for the rest of this week and
into this weekend as a high amplitude ridge strengthens just off
of the West Coast, and the region remains under dry quasi-zonal to
northwesterly flow aloft. A cold front will move through the area
Wednesday, resulting in temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees cooler
than today, with highs ranging from the 40s across northern Lea
county and the higher terrain, to upper 60s through the Rio Grande
Valley. Another cold front will arrive on Friday, which will
maintain the below normal temperatures through this weekend. A
shortwave rounding the eastern periphery of the aforementioned
West Coast ridge could bring a chance of rain to southern portions
of the area late Friday night and Saturday, with the best chance
across the Lower Trans Pecos. Lapse rates look to be on the low
side at the moment, so will leave out any mention of thunder.
Saturday also looks to be our coldest day, with highs in the 40s
and 50s areawide. While afternoon high temperatures will be below
normal the next several days, the overnight/early morning lows
will be noticeably colder, generally in the 20s and 30s each day.

Model solutions diverge by Sunday night/Monday, with the ECMWF
developing a cutoff low over northwestern Mexico, which could
bring another shot of precipitation to the region early next week.
However, the GFS maintains dry conditions Sunday onward. Thus,
will not deviate much from the blended solution at this time,
keeping early next week dry, with temperatures returning to
near/just above normal Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

18Z observations of the Marfa Plateau and Big Bend area show
critical 20` winds finally catching up to RH, which has been AOB
15% in many areas for several hours. A few areas further north
are reaching RF criteria but, as discussed earlier, these areas
have had more rain recently than the Big Bend region. The NAM has
done pretty well on winds down there, but is overestimating the
moisture, whereas the GFS is much more realistic. That said, 20`
winds may stay up into the evening hours, but RH looks to rise
above 15% early as the Pac front sets in. Wednesday, elevated fire
wx conditions will be possible in post-frontal NW flow, with lwr
20` winds expected than today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     35  57  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       31  57  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         46  67  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  39  56  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  43  25  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  51  25  49 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          30  50  19  54 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           35  56  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         34  55  28  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           33  59  26  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Big
     Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Andrews-Dawson-
     Gaines-Loving-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley.

&&

$$

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