Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 082324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

See 00Z aviation discussion below.


Rain is diminishing though there are a few isolated storms in the
area, coverage is not enough to put TS in the TAFs except at PEQ
over the next few hours. Widespread rain should redevelop Friday
but lightning will again be too isolated to mention in the TAFs at
this time. Generally VFR conditions are expected except perhaps
brief MVFR in the heavier rain.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/

The main focus for the forecast package will continue to be the
ongoing potential for flooding/flash flooding across many areas
through tonight... A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all but
NE zones through early Friday morning.

The upper low that has brought 0.5-2+ inches of rain and localized
areas of flash flooding to much of the CWA, has drifted slightly
south into northern Mexico today but will continue to supply large
scale forcing for ascent across the region through tonight. Severe
thunderstorms affected western portions of southwest TX yesterday
afternoon, producing large hail, damaging winds and very heavy
rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms increased in coverage overnight
and moved NNE through the morning hours as an upper wave moved
across the region. As of 2pm CDT, highest 24 hour rainfall totals of
around 2-3" were generally concentrated across portions of SE NM
south/southwest through the Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains/Marfa
Plateau areas. As a result, several road closures were reported
across these areas due to high water over the roads and many rivers
have risen to above flood stage.

Currently have thunderstorms moving NNE across the Permian Basin in
association with the initial wave mentioned above. A second wave,
evident on WV/Vis satellite just SW of the Rio Grande Valley, will
help generate our second round of precipitation through the
overnight hours. Already seeing some new activity developing across
Terrell County and just south of the Rio Grande. Some storms could
become severe across the southern zones through this evening,
capable of producing large hail and strong winds. Expect
showers and thunderstorms to continue to increase across the
south and move N overnight. The axis of heaviest rainfall looks
to be over the southern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Big
Bend regions. For now, will continue likely PoPs with the mention
of the heavy rain potential across these areas through tomorrow
morning. These areas could receive up to 1-2 additional inches of
rain during this time...with locally higher amounts possible.
That`s not to say areas further north will not receive flooding
rains, especially across urban areas and where soils are already
saturated. Potential impacts include; flooded urban roadways and
rural low water crossings, flooding of low flowing arroyos/creeks
and rivers, including those in SE NM and far west TX that may
still be receiving run-off from recent rains. In addition, reduced
visibility in short distances may impact airports and auto travel.

Friday, the upper low will retrograde west with decreasing rain
chances from NE to SW throughout the day. Below normal high
temperatures expected through Friday due to rain/cloud cover then
skies begin to clear Saturday and temperatures warm through the
beginning of the next work week with the return of upper ridging.
Otherwise, dry weather expected beyond tomorrow.


NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...
     Midland...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.



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