Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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166
FXUS64 KMAF 230002
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
702 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 23/00Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Quiet aviation weather conditions are forecast through 24Z/00Z.
Convection extending from south central New Mexico south across
far west Texas and much of northern Chihuahua and east across
northern Coahuila will not directly impact weather at area
terminals; however, extensive cirriform cloudiness will overspread
west Texas and southeastern New Mexico this evening and continue
until around sunrise. A surface trough along the lee slopes of the
central Rockies will strengthen Saturday, and as it does so,
southerly winds will pick up by noon to generally aoa 15 kts with
gusts aoa 25 kts. In other words, typical southern plains
springtime weather.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Current satellite shows a weak cumulus field developing in the Big
Bend with thunderstorms firing across the border in northern
Mexico. This is due in part from increasing moisture interacting
with higher terrain, however there is also an upper level low
moving onto the Baja of Mexico that is increasing instability.
This afternoon and evening we are expecting a few showers and
storms to develop, especially in the Davis Mountains, diminishing
later tonight only to reform again tomorrow. The highest rain
chances will be closer to the low in the Big Bend region and
diminishing farther north.

The upper low moves east of the area Sunday leaving increasing
west winds and warmer temperatures...highs will likely reach 90
for the first time this year in Midland/Odessa Sunday and Monday.
Tuesday another deep upper level low moves into the Rockies
backing upper level flow, lowering heights, and helping cool
temperatures down slightly. This low will stay too far north to
give our area much of a chance for rainfall but it will push a
weak cold front into the Permian Basin. Yet another upper low
moves into the western U.S. and should increase instability enough
for showers and storms to form along the front late next week.
Rain chances will greatly hinge on whether the cold front will
indeed make it this far south as convergence along this boundary
would increase rainfall coverage.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  79  59  88 /   0  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       57  87  58  88 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         61  81  62  89 /   0  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  59  83  61  90 /   0  10  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 58  78  57  78 /  20  20  10   0
Hobbs                          52  82  54  85 /   0  10  10   0
Marfa                          49  74  47  80 /  30  20  20   0
Midland Intl Airport           56  84  62  91 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                         58  84  62  90 /   0  10  10   0
Wink                           59  89  62  93 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/49/

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