Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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030
FXUS64 KMAF 200534
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with mainly southerly winds will prevail through
the forecast period. Wind gusts at MAF, INK, and PEQ will continue
the next few hours before diminishing, with some concern for LLWS
at MAF until approximately 09Z. Wind speeds Monday will remain
around 12kt or less, with gusty winds expected to return to MAF
and FST after 21/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Will update the zones to expand the mention of isolated showers
and thunderstorms to include southeast New Mexico and the Trans
Pecos region of West Texas. Increased cloud cover this evening.

updated products to be sent shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Sunday...Convection is firing up
along the southern and western mountains. Near record or record
heat the next couple of days followed by possible dryline
convection late Thursday. And since it is meteorological Spring
(and it is West Texas/Southeast New Mexico after all) we can`t
forget the strong winds possible late Thursday into Friday.

Ridging aloft along with low level thermal ridging will bring near
record/record heat to the CWA Monday and Tuesday. Low-level
upslope flow...decent moisture...and strong heating will lead to
diurnal convection over the Davis/Glass/Guadalupe Mtns this
aftn/evening as well as Monday aftn/evening. Looks like Tuesday
will remain dry as ridging peaks over the CWA with stronger
subsidence.

As a cold front sags south thru the Central Plains some "cooler"
air will filter into the area Wednesday resulting in still well
above normal temps...just several degrees cooler.

A potent upper level system moving into CA early in the week will
move into the south-central Rockies and then into the Plains. It`s
looking like the GFS and ECMWF are coming into agreement on the
strength and track of the system. Low/mid level moisture looks to
be drawn northwest into the central and eastern portions of the
CWA Thursday ahead of a dryline/Pacific Cold Front. Convection
looks possible in the Central/Eastern Permian Basin late Thursday
before moving rapidly east during the evening. It is still early
so won`t get too detailed with the forecast. It also looks very
windy...with the GFS MOS indc strong winds late Thursday into
Friday. Will need to watch this for wind and fire weather
highlights/concerns.

Ridging will bring dry weather next weekend with temps once again
above...if not well above normal by next Sunday.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  59  94  59 /  10  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       91  55  94  58 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         89  58  92  60 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  92  61  95  63 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  60  82  60 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          89  56  92  55 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          84  54  87  53 /  20  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           91  59  94  59 /  10  10  10   0
Odessa                         90  58  93  58 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           93  59  96  59 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$