Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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731
FXUS64 KMAF 181127
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs are being masked by higher clouds on satellite, but they
are in the area...albeit patchy...from MAF to HOB. They will be
around until around 15Z then will lift as rain showers develop.
Sporadic lightning will occur but will not be enough to mention TS
in present wx of the TAFs. -SHRA will end this evening and MVFR
CIGs should return to most terminals again tonight around 06Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An area of rainfall has persisted across the Stockton Plateau and
Big Bend Area overnight, corresponding with continued moisture
return and enhanced lift under a midlevel trough. Most of the area
today, with the exception of higher terrain to the west, will see
dewpoints well into the 60s, with temperatures expected to range
from around 80 degrees to around 90 degrees, several degrees
cooler than yesterday due to increased moisture and cloudcover.
Given the continued presence of the midlevel trough and ample low
and midlevel moisture, thunderstorm chances will expand
northwestward this afternoon, with the best chance of storms
roughly along and east of a line extending from near Hobbs to
north of Van Horn. Precipitable water values this afternoon will
climb to around 1 inch west to around 2 inches across southeastern
zones, which is roughly 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year per GEFS and NAEFS anomalies. Thus, the
primary threat with storms today and into tonight will be locally
heavy rainfall, which could result in localized flash flooding.
Flooding concerns will increase over areas that have received
recent rainfall, as well as any locations where cell training
occurs. While a few storms may become strong, shear is minimal,
thus severe weather is not expected.

A lull in precipitation is expected for much of the area on Friday
as the instability axis shifts to the east, focusing rain
chances over southern and eastern portions of the forecast area.
Temperatures Friday will also rebound several degrees, but should
still remain below normal. Model guidance has come into better
agreement regarding the front that is expected to move through the
area this weekend, with solutions indicating the front will move
into the northern Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico Plains
by early Saturday afternoon, and progress south of the Pecos
River by Saturday evening. Thunderstorm chances will increase with
the front as moisture will remain entrenched over the area, with
locally heavy rainfall continuing to be the primary concern.
Temperatures behind the front will be much cooler, with highs
Sunday only expected to be in the 70s and 80s. The cooler weather
looks to stick around through midweek next week, with only a slow
moderation in temperatures expected. Rain chances will also linger
into next week, supported by subtle disturbances in the
southwesterly flow aloft as well as a weak low and associated
subtle vorticity maxima progged to move north across eastern zones
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  72  90  71 /  50  30  30  20
Carlsbad                       91  66  94  69 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         86  72  89  72 /  60  50  40  20
Fort Stockton                  83  67  89  69 /  50  30  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 83  64  89  65 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          86  65  90  65 /  20  10  10  20
Marfa                          79  57  84  58 /  50  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           85  70  92  70 /  50  20  20  10
Odessa                         85  70  91  70 /  40  20  20  10
Wink                           89  69  95  72 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10

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