Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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568
FXUS64 KMAF 101942
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
242 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today will turn out to be the warmest day of the next several as
downslope winds contribute to the amplification of the low level
thermal ridge. Temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degrees above
normal. More of the same Fri, however a weak front will slip into
the n-ne CWFA and it will be noticeably cooler there. A surface
low to north will better organize Sat and the development of sw
surface winds and a prominent 85h thermal ridge will keep the
unseasonably warm temperatures going. Low level mstr will be able
to hold across the Lower Trans Pecos and the far e-ne CWFA where
LI/s of -2 to -5 are progged. However it will be cool across Lower
Trans Pecos and that will result in large CINH and with an
elevated mixed layer parcels will have to be lifted to around
650mb in e-ne, this doesn`t seem too likely. Mid level winds will
increase Sat and high winds will become a possibility Sat/Sun in
favored areas of the GDP Mtns. A shrtwv trof will pass on Sunday
however dry air will push out ewd ahead of shrtwv trof precluding
the chance for convective development. It will be cooler Sunday,
but temperatures will still be above normal. In wake of said trof
a strong cold front will surge s arriving in the PB Sunday evening.
NAM12 3hr pressure change progs indicate it will be windy with
front, possibly near advisory criteria n of I-20. It will be much
colder Mon with highs U50s-L60s for most areas. Turning warming
though Tue-Thur. GFS is optimistic about dryline developing Wed,
but ECMWF moreso Thur.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry regime to continue through the weekend with westerly flow
aloft continuing. A rather weak surface pressure gradient and an
abundance of high clouds should keep 20 foot winds below 20 mph
today even in the Guadalupe Mountains, though mountain top winds
could flirt at times with Red Flag conditions overnight per the NAM
forecast sounding. Very poor rh recovery expected tonight mainly
west of the Pecos River and fair to good east.

Near critical fire weather conditions expected Friday across the
Guadalupe Mountains. Forecast soundings indicate 20 foot winds
and mixing layer winds increasing to near 20 mph on or after 21z
through 00z Saturday. Mitigating factors will be a brief window for
the 20 mph winds to materialize with a significant amount of high
clouds expected. Will issue no watches at this time for Friday.
Saturday morning rh recovery will be poor west of the Pecos River
and fair to good east.

West to southwest winds will increase through the column Saturday
as a southern stream upper level low pressure area nudges closer
to the forecast area. There is greater confidence that a significant
period of 20 foot winds will reach 20 mph or greater across the
Guadalupe Mountains, Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor and southeast
New Mexico Plains. Since minimum rh/s are expected to be below 10
percent in these areas, we will issue a Fire Weather Watch.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  89  59  91  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              58  89  62  90  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                49  89  57  92  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  59  91  62  89  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           55  92  61  94  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  81  59  84  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   50  87  55  90  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   43  83  48  83  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    59  90  61  91  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  59  90  62  91  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    53  93  59  95  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

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