Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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753
FXUS64 KMAF 191619
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1119 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect conditions to slowly improve over the next 24 hours. WV
imagery shows the upper trough axis entering West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, and subsidence on the backside of it should
start scattering out stratus during the afternoon hours. Forecast
soundings suggest all terminals improving to VFR conditions
during the afternoon, w/redevelopment overnight eastern terminals.
Buffer soundings suggest KMAF/KHOB could see a few hrs of IFR
cigs, and KINK MVFR. All cigs should scatter out to a VFR cu field
by the end of the forecast period, w/bases 2.4-5 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 730 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/

UPDATE...As of 7:30 AM CDT Thursday...KMAF radar imagery is
showing that the heavy rain has moved east of the area...therefore
the Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled. Updated zones have been
sent out.

Strobin

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 613 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Current IFR conditions may briefly deteriorate near sunrise, then
improve to VFR by 18-21Z today. A return of MVFR/IFR conditions is
expected tonight at MAF and HOB and is possible at the other TAF
sites as well though not indicated at this time. TS has moved
east of the TAF sites and will not be a factor the next 24 hours.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough now located just west of the region early this
morning is providing maximized upper forcing for ascent, supporting
ongoing showers and thunderstorms across southern portions of west
TX. The rain activity has been fairly progressive overnight and
flooding potential hasn`t really been a concern as of yet with
only about an inch or less of rain so far. However with the
potential of additional rainfall possible (mainly the Lower Trans
Pecos) through morning, could see a few areas of localized
flooding and will keep the Flash Flood Watch as is for now. Best
rain chances will generally be across the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos through mid day today then shift east as the
upper trough progresses eastward. A few hi-res models show
convection developing along the higher terrain early this
afternoon. Think this is reasonable given the trough axis will
still be west of the area and daytime heating could result in
increased instability across these areas. Forecasted high
temperatures will be warmer today, particularly across western
zones where clouds are expected to clear by late afternoon.

The warming trend will continue into Friday and Saturday as the
upper trough is replaced by weak upper ridging. Will have a dryline
develop Friday and slosh back and forth through the weekend. Chances
for thunderstorms to develop Friday or Saturday afternoon remain
very low at this time given the lack of upper support. Better chance
for dryline thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening across the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos with stronger convergence
expected along the dryine and a strong upper jet nosing into the
region. Models indicate a significant amount of instability east
of the boundary with decent wind shear possible which would
support strong updrafts and the potential for severe storms
producing large hail and damaging winds. This will be something to
keep an eye on as Sunday nears so stay tuned. Otherwise, near
normal temperatures expected through the weekend.

Beyond this weekend, the dryline looks to hang around far eastern
zones each afternoon through much of the week with most areas
across the CWA remaining dry. Above normal temperatures can be
expected with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows generally
in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     55  82  62  85 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       53  87  59  91 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         61  84  67  88 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  57  86  64  90 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 55  81  58  82 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          53  83  58  87 /  10   0  10  20
Marfa                          47  81  51  85 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           56  85  64  88 /  10   0  10  10
Odessa                         57  85  64  88 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           55  88  63  91 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/12/44

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