235
FXUS64 KMAF 111745
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1245 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE KFST TERMINAL BETWEEN 20-24Z. DECIDED TO GO
AHEAD AND CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL MEXICO WILL
CUTOFF AND VERY GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
BAJA BY MONDAY EVENING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW GREATLY FAVORS
AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER WITH THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN WEAK
SHEAR VALUES AND CAPES GENERALLY REMAINING WELL BELOW 1000 J/KG.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE BIG BEND
WHERE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
FINALLY GET KICKED EAST BY THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE
OF THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TUESDAY TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO ALSO
INCLUDE THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS.
ABOVE TO MUCH NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING
DEVELOPING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THIS WILL IMPACT WHERE
THE DRYLINE/MOISTURE EVENTUALLY SETS UP AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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