Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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434
FXUS64 KMAF 152331
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 PM CDT Fri May 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Variable and gusty winds will come around to the south and southeast
over the next few hours and will be elevated and gusty for all sites
except CNM and PEQ.  Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop and move across the area this evening into tonight starting
across southeast New Mexico.  Timing of the storms reaching the
Permian Basin is uncertain so left out of tempo group for now.  Low
ceilings will be possible for MAF for a few hours before 14z.  Winds
will become elevated and gusty out of the southwest to west late
Saturday morning, especially for CNM and HOB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT Fri May 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Another shortwave trough will eject northeastward over the region
tonight with thunderstorms again expected to form over the forecast
area. The dryline will continue to move eastward this afternoon,
but will not be sharp enough to provide much of a low level focus.
Therefore, only isolated thunderstorms are expected over the
eastern Permian Basin, higher terrain of southwest Texas or
southeast New Mexico this afternoon, also partially due to very
little mid level support.  Despite only isolated thunderstorms
expected this afternoon, some could be severe due to steep mid
level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km over the western half of the area
and 40kt of shear.  These storms will be apt to produce strong
winds due to a somewhat dry subcloud layer.  Along and east of the
dryline, SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg and favorable shear could result in
a severe storm or two, with the main threats being hail and brief
heavy rainfall.

Tonight, the dryline will retreat westward in response to height
falls ahead of a large upper low translating eastward over the
southwestern ConUS.  A Pacific cold front will spread eastward at
the base of the ua trough and will collide with the retreating
dryline tonight.  Low level convergence looks to increase
sufficiently to tap into the unstable airmass behind the
retreating dryline with scattered thunderstorms expected to
develop.  Since lapse rates will remain 7-7.5 C/km and shear will
increase to 40-50kt, expect severe storms to develop with strong
winds, large hail and locally heavy rainfall.  A line of storms
could form over northern portions of the area as lift increases
more late tonight and a h85 jet strengthening to 40-50kt provides
inflow.  Heavy rainfall will be possible, however the movement of
the line of storms may be too rapid for widespread heavy rainfall.
Will make a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for the
potential of severe storms and localized flash flooding, especially
over the northern CWA.

The base of the upper low will swing by over New Mexico Saturday
and push the dryline to the eastern fringe of the forecast area,
with a slight chance of storms there during the afternoon.  Strong
mid level winds at the base of the upper low will rake the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains.  Therefore, will
replace the High Wind Watch in the Guadalupes with a High Wind
Warning, and issue a Wind Advisory for the southeast New Mexico
Plains. Locations from Culberson county, to the Upper Trans Pecos
and northwest Permian Basin may needed to be added to the Advisory,
although winds look a little too anemic in the current data.  The
upper low will move away from the region Sunday, but rain chances
will return early next week as another large cutoff low drops
southeastward along the west coast and heads east.  Therefore,
will retain the rather hefty PoPs that are currently in the
forecast for Monday through Tuesday night.  With few exceptions,
temperatures throughout the 7 day forecast will be near to above
normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99

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