Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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498
FXUS64 KMAF 181939
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
239 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Today`s thunderstorm potential will mainly be focused from the
Delaware...to Davis...to the Glass Mtns where there`s still enough
low level mstr and mid level instability (LRs of 7 C/KM) for the
elevated heat sources to drive convection. Mid level steering flow
is pretty weak across the mtns so a few storms could drift out a
little distance from the mtns. CAPEs are forecast to be over 2000
J/KG but the shear is only around 15kts and this seems to favor
downburst winds and hail. Storms will be diurnally driven and
expect there will be little if any storms left after 03Z. Today`s
7h temps will be about a 1.5C warmer than yesterdays and this will
carry over thru Tue with increased presence of the ridge aloft,
although Mon will probably be the hottest of the next few days.
The ridge is still present Wed but heights are lower with SW and W
flow by Thur PM/Fri, respectively. Pretty good model agreement
that a mid latitude cyclone will be e of the front range Fri. An
assocd cold front is likely to move thru Sat evening and low level
mstr will have a brief window to return along/ahead of front Sat
evening and thus a few storms possible across the far e then. Much
drier air will follow the front Sat AM which should set up a
favorable conditions for a cool Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  96  71  95 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       60  94  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         74  97  72  96 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  71  96  71  95 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  87  66  86 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          62  92  65  91 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          58  88  62  87 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           71  96  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         71  94  70  93 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           70  98  70  97 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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