Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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672
FXUS64 KMAF 172254
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
554 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. West to southwest
winds should diminish and become light and variable around or
shortly after sunset and continue overnight. some mid and high
clouds are expected overnight but skies should clear Saturday
morning.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A large cutoff low has swirled eastward into southern Colorado this
afternoon, while a Pacific front to it`s south has pushed through
most of our forecast area.  West/southwest flow aloft will persist
over the region tonight and Saturday to the south of the slowly
northeastward ambling upper low, and continue to supply a feed of
dry air to the region.  There does appear to be another shortwave
trough swinging around the base of the upper low tonight, along with
a 110kt h25 jet nosing into southwest Texas, which could spark a few
thunderstorms over the Big Bend region, but low level moisture will
be fairly scant.  Will carry a slight chance of thunderstorms from
the Big Bend across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern fringe of the
Permian basin tonight.  Think the biggest threat will be gusty winds
over the the Big Bend due to a fairly dry subcloud layer, and an
outside chance of a severe storm over the eastern Permian Basin or
Lower Trans Pecos through tonight.

By Saturday, think the persistent westerly flow will shove the
dryline east of the area, except perhaps over Terrell county where
only a slight chance of thunderstorms will be retained.  Do not
think there will be any severe storms even that far west.  It looks
like fire weather concerns will persist through Saturday while
cyclonic flow around the southern periphery of the upper low is
still strong enough for windy conditions over the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains.  Please see the Fire
Weather Discussion below for more details.

The semi permanent upper low will finally rejoin the northern stream
Sunday.  A large upper trough will then encompass the eastern half
of the ConUS into mid next week and leave the forecast area dry
Sunday and Monday.  A cold front will push into the region Sunday
and result in a continuation of near normal, pleasant Springtime
temperatures.  By Tuesday, the parent surface ridge behind the front
will slide eastward and allow for southerly return flow in it`s
wake.  At the same time, another southern stream ua trough will
begin to head toward the region via the Baja Peninsula and northern
Mexico.  A dryline will form over the area, and we could have
thunderstorms develop from Tuesday until the end of next week.  Any
PoPs in these time frames will be held to a slight chance as there
are too many differences in the timing of discrete shortwave troughs
ahead of the mentioned ua trough amongst models, not to mention the
ua trough itself, to carry anything moreso.  It appears temperatures
will warm above normal for mid to late next week though.

FIRE WEATHER...

As an upper level storm system over the Four Corners Region
continues to slide east into the Central Plains today, associated
surface low pressure will also slide further to the east as well as
drier downslope west winds work their way into the area.  700 mb
winds from the 12z NAM suggest the strongest winds aloft should be
confined primarily to the Guadalupe Mountains from this afternoon
through this evening. With RH values already below 15 percent at GDP
and with winds expected to increase, the current Red Flag Warning
appears to be on track.

Saturday presents an interesting scenario.  On the backside of this
storm system, the NAM suggests wind speeds should be sufficient to
meet critical thresholds over the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast New
Mexico Plains, Upper Trans Pecos Region, and over the western
portions of the Permian Saturday afternoon.  On the other hand, the
GFS shows noticeably lower wind speeds.  Plus, models are suggesting
increasing mid level moisture into the area throughout the day on
Saturday, which will could result in relative humidity meeting
thresholds for a very small window of time during the early
afternoon, if at all.  For now, we will lean towards a Fire Weather
Watch for these areas.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

03/67

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