Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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493
FXUS64 KMAF 150907
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
407 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
It has been amazing lately how we have gone from very dry to
having showers on the radar every day. Much of this can be
credited to Hurricane Odile currently making landfall in the Baja
of Mexico. This storm will have to be very closely monitored
over the next several days as tropical systems have been known to
give our area it`s worst flooding. NHC forecast tracks have been
slowly shifting this system further east and now have it taking a
sharp right Wednesday towards Arizona and New Mexico. High
pressure along the northern Gulf Coast will continue to send
moisture north into the CWA, and expect disturbances originating
from the storm to increasingly spin north as the tight circulation
weakens over land. The first will arrive Tuesday and remain into
Wednesday bringing scattered convection. PWATs are currently well
above normal at 1.5" and will increase to near 1.8" by Wednesday
which is over 2 standard deviations above normal. This combined
with heavy rains that have fallen recently means flash flooding
will be a threat this week along with rises along the Rio Grande.
Will not issue a Flash Flood Watch at this time due to
uncertainties in the timing of Odile, but one may be needed later
if confidence increases. Given everything stated above, went more
aggressive with rain chances this forecast and increased or
introduced PoPs just about every day this week.

The tropical moisture has not only brought rain, but obviously
there has been abundant cloud cover as well and this has limited
afternoon heating and led poor model guidance the past couple of
days. This is tough to forecast because even a brief break in
cloud cover can allow for temperatures to quickly spike upward and
forecasting temperatures much lower than guidance requires high
confidence of dense overcast clouds all day. MAF did not even hit
70 degrees on Sunday but some of that was due to us still
recovering from the recent frontal passage. Today will be warmer
due to continued warm air advection from the south but have
undercut MAV guidance several degrees both today and tomorrow.
The remainder of the forecast is close to MEX guidance though the
trend was to continue to undercut slightly due to clouds/rain/
soil moisture effects on limiting heating.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  66  80  67  /  20  30  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              79  68  82  69  /  20  30  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                78  66  79  67  /  30  30  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  80  70  86  71  /  30  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           80  67  83  69  /  30  20  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  60  72  60  /  30  40  40  30
HOBBS NM                   77  65  78  65  /  20  30  40  20
MARFA TX                   73  61  77  61  /  30  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    80  67  82  69  /  20  30  30  20
ODESSA TX                  79  68  82  68  /  20  20  30  20
WINK TX                    82  68  84  70  /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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