Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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097
FXUS64 KMAF 291722
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 PM CDT Fri May 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Abundant moisture remains across the area. With good heating this
morning, a patch of low clouds had formed in the Permian Basin
by mid-day with bases around 2600 ft. Though a temporary broken
ceiling is possible, expecting bases to lift above 3000 ft around
18Z.

This afternoon, clouds will be scattered to broken with cloud
bases lifting above 5000 ft this afternoon. Winds are expected to
remain light, generally varying from south to northeast.

Thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon mainly near
the mountains due to strong heating and upslope flow, though an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out elsewhere. A few thunderstorms
will move off the mountains and into the nearby plains, though
they will likely weaken and dissipate after sunset. Probability of
occurrence at area terminals is presently too low to include in
area TAFs. Winds will be gusty near any thunderstorms that
develop.

Overnight, a cold front will push into southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas around 09Z shifting winds to the northeast. The
front should push through area terminals by 15Z. Rain and
thunderstorms are possible along and behind the front. Will
include tempo for HOB and MAF. IFR and areas of LIFR conditions
mainly due to ceilings are expected to develop post-frontal and
persist through Saturday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
High clouds have moved east of all terminals. With light winds,
low clouds and fog could affect the area through 29/15Z. Will
include temporary IFR ceilings and visibility in fog. Low ceilings
and fog are expected to mix out around 29/15Z, or shortly
thereafter. Expect VFR through the afternoon. Thunderstorms could affect
most terminals tonight behind a cold front.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Rainfall totals from yesterday`s thunderstorm activity show
significant rains occurred over northern and eastern portions of
the Texas Permian Basin, and over the southern portions of the
Rolling Plains. As a cold front makes its way southward into the
area Friday evening into Saturday, thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of and along the cold front, providing the potential
for flash flooding across these same areas.

By mid-afternoon today, severe thunderstorms could form across
portions the Trans-Pecos Region and Permian Basin as well. Models
are consistent in forecasting a surface low pressure circulation
over western portions of the Permian Basin this afternoon. This
will aid in the development of a quasi-dryline across western
portions of the CWA. East of the dryline, CAPE values approaching
4000 J/KG with 700-300 mb lapse rates of nearly 8C/km are
expected. Even without impressive bulk shear values, the heating
of the day should see thunderstorm development with some storms
reaching severe levels. As the day progresses, the low level
circulation over the western Permian Basin is expected to move westward,
allowing for increased low level moisture into the area. We should
also start to see the shift of the convection northward towards
approaching frontal boundary. On Saturday,thunderstorm activity
should gradually shift southward with the front into the southern
and western portions of the CWA.  Sunday is looking like a drier day.

As an upper level ridge builds over the western portions of the
area, we will see a slightly drier pattern starting Sunday and
continuing into next week. However, with an intensifying surface
trough from the Central Plains into southwest Texas, we will not
be totally rain free. There will be a continued chance for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday along
this surface feature.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 PM CDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Borden...Dawson...
     Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry.


&&

$$

05

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