Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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167
FXUS64 KMAF 251517
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1017 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue next 24 hours, under an upper ridge
centered north of the region. A few cu will be possible SE NM,
w/bases 7-9 kft agl.  Return flow will continue, w/no convection expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Not much change from the previous forecast with hot and dry
conditions expected through the weekend for most areas, as we remain
under the influence of the persistent upper ridge. Above normal
temperatures continue for the next several days as the 850mb ridge
strengthens just west of the CWA. MOS was too cool once again
yesterday so will continue to forecast temps a degree or two warmer
than guidance. In general, afternoon highs will range from the upper
90s to at or just above 100. The exceptions being the higher terrain
where slightly cooler temperatures (upper 80s-low 90s) can be
expected and south along the Rio Grande River Valley, where temps as
high as 105-106 will be possible. With such warm overnight
lows expected along the Rio Grande Valley through the
weekend, went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for these locations
in Brewster and Terrell counties. Saw a few thunderstorms down south
near the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions yesterday
afternoon/evening but for today, think any activity will remain to
the south of the FA.

The upper ridge will begin to shift back west Sunday/Monday as an
strong upper low digs into the Great Lakes region. As a result,
850mb temps will begin to cool across the region and afternoon highs
will decrease to more normal values through the beginning of next
week. The previously mentioned ua low will send a cold front south,
reaching northeast zones Monday or Tuesday. Model guidance keeps
greatest precip chances to the northeast of the CWA however
convection along the front could push it further south into the
area. For now, will keep inherited mention of thunderstorm chances
across northern zones Monday night and Tuesday. Any lingering
boundaries (whether it be the front or outflow boundaries from
Tuesday convection) could also generate thunderstorms across
northern portions into Wednesday. Another cold front could continue
rain chances and cool temperatures further later in the week but
won`t get too excited just yet.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

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