Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 311742

1142 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs/vis
affecting terminals through this afternoon. Currently have flight
categories ranging from LIFR at HOB to MVFR at FST, with all other
sites sitting in between at IFR. Expect conditions to improve to VFR
sometime mid afternoon/early evening however low vis could return
after midnight Sunday morning. Went ahead and included mention of BR
at HOB and MAF where confidence is higher and make adjustments
if/when needed. Otherwise, the bulk of RA has moved east of all
terminals but could see some isolated/scattered showers through the
afternoon. A cold front will enter northern portions of the region
mid/late morning Sunday, with gusty north winds expected just beyond
this TAF cycle.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

Widespread light to moderate rain is covering much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico early this morning. This precipitation is
occurring in the moist conveyor belt ahead of a large upper level
low pressure system centered across western Arizona. Will continue
likely to categorical pops this morning for rain as this moisture
continues to push eastward across the forecast area. By this
afternoon the moisture belt will be exiting eastward into central
Texas and precipitation chances will decrease to chance category
except in the central and eastern Permian Basin where likely
to categorical pops will continue near the departing moisture.
There could even be some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
near the Rio Grande River where instability will increase ahead
of the upper low.

By tonight through Sunday night the upper level low pressure
system is progged to split. The southern portion will become the
remains of the upper low and move south into Mexico while the
northern portion transitions into a trough. The net effect will be
a weakening of the entire system. Precipitation chances will be on
the decrease with the best chance across mainly areas south of the
Pecos River in west Texas east of the upper level trough axis.
Progged lapse rates and instability suggest isolated thunderstorms

By Monday through next Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
is forecast to track from southwest Mexico northeast to south central
Texas by Wednesday. As the system approaches the Big Bend late
Tuesday, showers will be possible in the Big Bend and lower Trans
Pecos region. High temperatures are expected to remain below
normal through Monday but warm to above normal levels by next
Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms.

By next Thursday and Friday below normal temperatures are
expected again behind a dry cold front as an upper level
trough moves across the western half of the nation.






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