Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 192231

431 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014


See Aviation Discussion below.



VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours, w/sfc flow veering
slightly to SW most terminals. NAM Buffer soundings develop a
VLIFR stratus deck at KPEQ for a few hours around sunrise, but
this is absent in other models, so we won`t take the bait attm.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014/


The warming trend will continue Thursday, as zonal flow aloft and
850mb thermal ridging will allow temperatures to rise to slightly
above normal for this time of year, with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Overnight low
temperatures will be a bit milder as well, in the 30s and low to mid
40s into the weekend.  The main focus of the forecast continues to
be a low pressure system progged to come ashore over the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday, which will deepen considerably as it shifts
eastward across the Rockies. Ahead of the low and accompanying
trough, a return to southwest flow aloft and southerly return flow
at the surface by Friday morning will aid in moisture return to the
region.  This will serve to keep temperatures seasonable into the
weekend, though increasing cloudcover is expected through the day on
Friday.  Models continue to be in good agreement that the system
will move through Southeast New Mexico and West Texas late Friday
night and early Saturday as a progressive open wave, with the
deepest part of the trough moving through Big Bend before lifting
toward central Texas Saturday afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday night, mainly over
the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, aided by the aforementioned
moisture return as well as supportive dynamics of the trough.  Model
soundings continue to indicate the presence of elevated instability
Friday night across the area, and given modest 500mb height falls as
well as steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air
aloft, some of the stronger storms could produce large hail and
gusty winds. A cold front will move through the area late Saturday
morning, and subsidence behind the trough/front will serve to
shift convection east of the area. While temperatures are not
expected to drop too much, it does look like Sunday could be quite
breezy thanks to westerly winds behind the departing trough.

The remainder of the extended forecast looks to remain dry, as the
region will once again be under the influence of northwest flow
aloft.  Another cold front is progged to move through the area
Sunday night/Monday, which will result in slightly below normal
temperatures through the first half of next week.






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