Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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339
FXUS64 KMAF 230503
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1203 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars and satellite loops show convection/cloud cover has
pushed east of the region, while sfc obs indicate light return
flow. Buffer soundings suggest widespread stratus to develop near
sunrise, w/perhaps some fog most terminals. NAM buffer soundings
are quite pessimistic on cigs/visibilities 12-15Z, and won`t take
the bait just yet. For now, we`ll restrict cigs/vsbys to IFR at
worst, at KHOB/KINK/KPEQ, and MVFR at KCNM/KMAF. This should erode
by late morning, at which time a widespread cu field is forecast,
w/bases 4-4.5 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
TS remains in the area but is showing little movement, and will
probably dissipate before reaching any TAF sites. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected through tonight with MVFR or IFR possible in
southeast NM and the upper Trans Pecos around 12Z.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An area of showers that continues from this mornings convection will lift
off to the NE out of the Permian Basin and into the Low Rolling
Plains.  Even though there is above normal moisture indicated by
this mornings sounding with PWATs at 1.20 in, the showers are not
producing any significant rainfalls. As the Pacific NW trough moves
through the area through, it will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of this afternoon and into the early
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Looking at radar,
some scattered cells have already developed from the Davis
Mountains northward through the Permian Basin. The passing of an upper
jet will also help to promote lift to aid in thunderstorm
development. Instability parameters, on the other hand, do not
look overly impressive. Once the upper trough passes later today, the
chances for rain will drop off. An upper ridge will then build heading
into the weekend as temperatures will climb to above normal for
this time of year.

Looking into the extended, the ridge will be flattened by an
approaching trough bringing a cold front into the area sometime
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Do not anticipate any
precipitation with this front, but it will bring more normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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