593
FXUS64 KMAF 120853
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
353 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN NORTH
INTO WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SYSTEM TODAY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO DEEP EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE APPROACHING LOW AND UPPER FLOW SHOULD
PUSH MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE PECOS RIVER IN WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
COOL TOWARDS NORMAL AS HEIGHTS FALL UNDER CONTINUED DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAWIDE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH INTO WEST TEXAS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SHEAR OF LESS THAN 30 KNOTS
WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW NORMAL IN CLOUDY MOIST REGIME.
BY SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REGAIN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN. THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING A FLATTER RIDGE AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
GFS DEPICTS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 67 93 67 / 0 0 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 96 67 93 69 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 98 66 94 67 / 0 0 10 10
DRYDEN TX 93 72 89 68 / 10 10 20 30
FORT STOCKTON TX 95 71 91 70 / 0 0 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 93 64 86 64 / 0 0 10 20
HOBBS NM 97 62 93 67 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA TX 92 60 83 62 / 10 10 30 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 95 68 92 67 / 0 0 10 10
ODESSA TX 95 69 92 68 / 0 0 10 20
WINK TX 98 71 96 71 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
67/12
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