Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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270
FXUS64 KMAF 010524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. Modest south winds with
occasional gusts can also be expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows a broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS, which will result in
fairly benign wx over the next week, aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.

Labor Day looks to be the warmest day this forecast, as the ridge
begins building/shifting east towards the Gulf Coast.  Models
maximize 500-1000mb thicknesses by 00Z Tuesday as the ridge passes
over, resulting in H85 temps over the Permian basin in excess of 30C,
for widespread triple-digit temps across West Texas/SE NM.  The NAM
usually handles this pretty well, but today it is an outlier, and
coldest of all models over the next couple of days.  Thus, we`ve
cottoned onto the GFS/ECMWF in the short-term, which are in better
agreement/in line w/the ARW/NMM/CMC.  Ridge keeps building into the
SE CONUS thru at least Thursday, then begins shifting back west.
However, models forecast a much weaker ridge as it returns by the
weekend, keeping temps each day closer to (but still above) normal.
Both the GFS and ECMWF even try to bring a cold front into the area
Saturday night, and a chance of convection may need to be added
later in the week if this pans out.  For temps in the extended, the
ECMWF is the coolest, and we`ve opted to lean towards the GFS, which
the DGEX and CMC are in better agreement with.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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