Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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471
FXUS64 KMAF 230952
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
452 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A line of showers and thunderstorms currently moving across northern
portions of the Permian Basin this morning is expected to continue
to move northeast through the early morning hours, and unlike storms
further north in eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle,
rainfall amounts with these storms remain fairly light. Thus,
flooding concerns early this morning remain low, though that will
change by this later this morning/early this afternoon as widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop from the Big Bend
area north-northeastward across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin.
The slow moving upper low/trough that has been responsible for the
unsettled weather pattern lately will continue its eastward
progression today, with accompanying height falls overspreading the
area through tonight. Flow over the region will become increasingly
meridional today in response to the advancing trough and developing
ridge downstream over the eastern CONUS, and ample lift will be
further supported by a 300mb jet rounding the base of the trough,
with much of the region beneath the right entrance region of an
upper jet streak. At 500mb, impulses in the southwest flow will
serve to drive continued storm development through the day today,
with storms first expected to develop over higher terrain to the
south this morning and expand in coverage northeast across the Trans
Pecos and Permian Basin by early afternoon.  Continued southerly
surface flow has maintained incredibly moist lower levels, with
precipitable water values 2 standard deviations above normal.
Thus, storms that develop today are expected to be efficient
rainfall producers, and given anticipated storm motion, cell
training could result in rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with
locally higher amounts up to 3 inches possible across the Lower
Trans Pecos and Permian Basin through this evening, where a Flash
Flood Watch is in effect.

There is the potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon,
particularly across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos
where diurnal destabilization is expected to result in SBCAPE of
1200-2000J/kg, and 0-6km shear approaches 30-45kt. The primary
threats with storms that develop this afternoon will be large hail
and damaging wind, as well as heavy rainfall.  Given the amount of
shear, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The severe
threat over eastern portions of the area today should begin to
decrease tonight as the environment is worked over by heavy
rainfall, with the threats of both severe weather and heavy rain
shifting eastward toward central Texas overnight.

By Sunday morning, there may be some lingering precipitation across
the Western Low Rolling Plains, though a lull is expected for most
of the day as the trough axis finally shifts east of the area and
surface flow becomes southwesterly, allowing for drier and warmer
conditions in its wake. Temperatures Sunday will rebound nicely,
into the low to middle 80s across southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin, with upper 80s and 90s possible across the south.
Temperatures return close to normal by Monday/Memorial Day, though a
shortwave rounding the back side of the departing trough could be
enough to result in some thunderstorms across the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos during the afternoon/evening on Memorial Day. A
reprieve from precipitation is expected Tuesday and Wednesday, in
response to weak ridging over the area, with temperatures expected
to be close to normal. By Wednesday night, yet another western CONUS
trough will result in a return to southwesterly flow aloft, and
thus, a return to an unsettled weather pattern with increasing
precipitation chances for the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  60  83  56  /  60  50  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              78  62  86  62  /  80  70  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                83  51  86  53  /  20  20   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  83  64  91  65  /  80  60  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           80  59  88  59  /  70  50  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  53  77  55  /  20  20   0  10
HOBBS NM                   78  53  80  51  /  40  30  10  10
MARFA TX                   75  45  80  43  /  40  30   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  62  86  61  /  70  50  20  10
ODESSA TX                  78  62  85  61  /  70  50  10  10
WINK TX                    81  59  88  55  /  40  40  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

49/84

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258
FXUS64 KMAF 230527
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 AM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Concern for the 1st 18hrs or so of fcst is potential for TSRA.
TSRA will first be most likely across SE NM were TEMPO groups are
included from the start at 06Z, then spreading TEMPO groups e and
s starting btwn 09-11Z. Mostly MVFR CIGS/VSBY expected with TSRA.
TEMPO groups will end at CNM by 15Z and 20Z HOB and 23Z-24Z at all
others.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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658
FXUS64 KMAF 222301
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A strong upper level storm system across Arizona is expected to
produce occasional showers and thunderstorms through the TAF
period with occasional MVFR conditions. Southeast winds of 10 to
25 mph and gusty tonight is expected to become south to southwest
by mid Saturday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over southwest Texas
this afternoon, with more thunderstorms developing late tonight over
the Guadalupe Mountains or southeast New Mexico Plains, if not the
Upper Trans Pecos.  Heavy rainfall will be spotty over southwest
Texas this afternoon/evening, but looks to become more widespread
over the northern CWA tonight, and over the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos Saturday when another round of convection
appears to be in the offing. Severe storms will also be possible
Saturday.

A large upper low over southern California today will head east this
weekend with southwest flow aloft propagating several shortwave
troughs over the region.  One such shortwave trough just east of the
northern Baja Peninsula will provide a modicum of lift this
afternoon and evening over southwest Texas where SBCAPES will rise
to around 2500 J/Kg over the higher terrain and along a
strengthening surface trough.  Expect thunderstorms to develop over
the higher terrain with 0 to 6Km bulk shear of 30-40kt and steep mid
level lapse rates of 7-8C/Km resulting in organized severe
thunderstorms in and near the Davis/Glass Mountains, Stockton
Plateau, Big Bend region and into the Lower Trans Pecos tonight.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats, although
a tornado or two is not out of the question.  Storms could
conglomerate into a small MCS and head east/southeastward across the
Lower Trans Pecos tonight.  Heavy rainfall will be a concern, but
convection is not expected to be widespread and localized flash
flooding will be possible.

This evening and later tonight, more thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the Upper Trans Pecos and southeast New Mexico.  A low
level jet will strengthen over the area due to height falls ahead of
the approaching upper low, and provide a modestly unstable airmass
to feed into a  developing cluster of storms over the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast new Mexico Plains, if not over the Upper
Trans Pecos.  Shortly after convective initiation, instability
and shear will be conducive for organized thunderstorms, and along
with steep mid level lapse rates spreading over these areas, result
in storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, perhaps a tornado
and locally heavy rainfall.  Think these storms will head east/
northeastward, along with the warm front, and move into the northern
Permian Basin as they cluster into another MCS late tonight.  PWaTs
will ramp up to near 1 inch over southeast New Mexico tonight and
closer to 1.5 inch over the northern Permian Basin.  Think if a
complex develops, heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding,
especially over Lea County and the northern Permian Basin, where
there has been heavy rainfall recently.  Since storms could develop
off the Guadalupe Mountains, think Eddy county could also receive
heavy rainfall early on.  Despite Eddy County not having widespread
heavy rainfall recently, will still include them in the Flash Flood
Watch tonight due to high precipitable water, and heavy rainfall
potential.

Convection could still be under way Saturday morning over the
northern CWA.  Think the atmosphere will destabilize along and east
of a surface trough, which will reside over the western CWA Saturday
afternoon, as temperatures start to return to closer to normal
values.  Then we could see another round of convection Saturday
afternoon as the base of the upper low extends well south into the
region, enhancing lift over the region into the evening.  Convective
initiation may be altered depending on how widespread convection is
tonight, but will still have to carry a good chance to numerous
thunderstorms in the forecast due to increased synoptic scale lift
over the region.  Some of these storms could be severe too as shear
and lapse rates will be favorable again.  Heavy rainfall will again
be of concern, especially over the western Low Rolling Plains,
central/eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where PWaTs rise
to 1-1.5 inch, or near 2 standard deviations above normal.  Another
cluster of storms could form Saturday night over these areas with
training of thunderstorms enhancing heavy rainfall potential.  Will
go ahead and include all of these areas in the Flash Flood Watch,
which will likely have to be adjusted later tonight, if not again
Saturday afternoon.  Convection may continue Saturday night over the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, so the FFA may have to be
extended.

Sunday may be a down day as the upper low ejects into the northern
U.S. Plains.  However, another lobe of energy will wheel around the
southwestern periphery of the departing upper low and head for the
region.  Therefore, will include more thunderstorm chances over the
forecast area Monday as this shortwave trough nears the region.
Moisture will spread northwestward into the region, and along with
near normal temperatures, promote an unstable atmosphere along a
sharpening dryline and the potential for more severe thunderstorms
Monday and Monday night.  The ua trough will pass by Tuesday, but
yet another ua trough will deepen over the western ConUS and head
east, so thunderstorm chances could increase again Tuesday over the
east, then further west Wednesday.  Temperatures should be near
normal throughout the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/80

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767
FXUS64 KMAF 221954
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over southwest Texas
this afternoon, with more thunderstorms developing late tonight over
the Guadalupe Mountains or southeast New Mexico Plains, if not the
Upper Trans Pecos.  Heavy rainfall will be spotty over southwest
Texas this afternoon/evening, but looks to become more widespread
over the northern CWA tonight, and over the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos Saturday when another round of convection
appears to be in the offing. Severe storms will also be possible
Saturday.

A large upper low over southern California today will head east this
weekend with southwest flow aloft propagating several shortwave
troughs over the region.  One such shortwave trough just east of the
northern Baja Peninsula will provide a modicum of lift this
afternoon and evening over southwest Texas where SBCAPES will rise
to around 2500 J/Kg over the higher terrain and along a
strengthening surface trough.  Expect thunderstorms to develop over
the higher terrain with 0 to 6Km bulk shear of 30-40kt and steep mid
level lapse rates of 7-8C/Km resulting in organized severe
thunderstorms in and near the Davis/Glass Mountains, Stockton
Plateau, Big Bend region and into the Lower Trans Pecos tonight.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats, although
a tornado or two is not out of the question.  Storms could
conglomerate into a small MCS and head east/southeastward across the
Lower Trans Pecos tonight.  Heavy rainfall will be a concern, but
convection is not expected to be widespread and localized flash
flooding will be possible.

This evening and later tonight, more thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the Upper Trans Pecos and southeast New Mexico.  A low
level jet will strengthen over the area due to height falls ahead of
the approaching upper low, and provide a modestly unstable airmass
to feed into a  developing cluster of storms over the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast new Mexico Plains, if not over the Upper
Trans Pecos.  Shortly after convective initiation, instability
and shear will be conducive for organized thunderstorms, and along
with steep mid level lapse rates spreading over these areas, result
in storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, perhaps a tornado
and locally heavy rainfall.  Think these storms will head east/
northeastward, along with the warm front, and move into the northern
Permian Basin as they cluster into another MCS late tonight.  PWaTs
will ramp up to near 1 inch over southeast New Mexico tonight and
closer to 1.5 inch over the northern Permian Basin.  Think if a
complex develops, heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding,
especially over Lea County and the northern Permian Basin, where
there has been heavy rainfall recently.  Since storms could develop
off the Guadalupe Mountains, think Eddy county could also receive
heavy rainfall early on.  Despite Eddy County not having widespread
heavy rainfall recently, will still include them in the Flash Flood
Watch tonight due to high precipitable water, and heavy rainfall
potential.

Convection could still be under way Saturday morning over the
northern CWA.  Think the atmosphere will destabilize along and east
of a surface trough, which will reside over the western CWA Saturday
afternoon, as temperatures start to return to closer to normal
values.  Then we could see another round of convection Saturday
afternoon as the base of the upper low extends well south into the
region, enhancing lift over the region into the evening.  Convective
initiation may be altered depending on how widespread convection is
tonight, but will still have to carry a good chance to numerous
thunderstorms in the forecast due to increased synoptic scale lift
over the region.  Some of these storms could be severe too as shear
and lapse rates will be favorable again.  Heavy rainfall will again
be of concern, especially over the western Low Rolling Plains,
central/eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where PWaTs rise
to 1-1.5 inch, or near 2 standard deviations above normal.  Another
cluster of storms could form Saturday night over these areas with
training of thunderstorms enhancing heavy rainfall potential.  Will
go ahead and include all of these areas in the Flash Flood Watch,
which will likely have to be adjusted later tonight, if not again
Saturday afternoon.  Convection may continue Saturday night over the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, so the FFA may have to be
extended.

Sunday may be a down day as the upper low ejects into the northern
U.S. Plains.  However, another lobe of energy will wheel around the
southwestern periphery of the departing upper low and head for the
region.  Therefore, will include more thunderstorm chances over the
forecast area Monday as this shortwave trough nears the region.
Moisture will spread northwestward into the region, and along with
near normal temperatures, promote an unstable atmosphere along a
sharpening dryline and the potential for more severe thunderstorms
Monday and Monday night.  The ua trough will pass by Tuesday, but
yet another ua trough will deepen over the western ConUS and head
east, so thunderstorm chances could increase again Tuesday over the
east, then further west Wednesday.  Temperatures should be near
normal throughout the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  77  60  84  /  70  50  50  20
BIG SPRING TX              67  79  62  87  /  50  80  60  30
CARLSBAD NM                59  83  51  86  /  50  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  69  83  65  91  /  40  80  70  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  80  60  88  /  40  50  50  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  77  51  76  /  30  20  20   0
HOBBS NM                   62  77  54  80  /  70  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   57  77  48  80  /  30  40  30   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  78  62  86  /  50  70  50  20
ODESSA TX                  67  77  62  85  /  50  60  50  20
WINK TX                    66  83  60  88  /  50  40  40  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...
     Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/80

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930
FXUS64 KMAF 221743
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings will gradually improve through the early afternoon hours
and should be VFR by 22z.  Winds will be fairly light out of the
east and southeast this afternoon before becoming elevated out of
the southeast this evening.  There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon with the best chance being at FST.
Ceilings are expected to lower again across most areas after 00z.
There is an even better chance of showers and thunderstorms
overnight so have added PROB30 groups through about 12z although
convection is possible through Saturday morning.  Ceilings are
expected to improve by 15z Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

UPDATE...

Updated the forecast to include mention of areas of fog this
morning, as most observation sites across far southeast New
Mexico, the Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos are reporting
visibility reductions. Conditions are expected to improve by mid-
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The shortwave responsible for the precipitation over the past 24
hours will lift to the northeast today, with weak midlevel height
rises in its wake as precipitation gradually tapers off from
southwest to northeast. While partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
the rule today, temperatures will rebound noticeably, with highs in
the 70s across the southeast New Mexico Plains and Permian Basin, to
80s across the Trans Pecos and points west and south. Continued
southeasterly surface flow will maintain the very moist boundary
layer, and despite much of the northern half of the forecast area
remaining capped, locations across the Big Bend area and Lower Trans
Pecos could once again see strong to severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and into this evening as storms develop across higher
terrain and move into a moderately unstable environment
characterized by temperatures in the middle 80s and ample shear.
Primary risks with these storms are large hail and damaging winds,
as well as locally heavy rainfall.

Tonight, height falls will begin to overspread western portions of
the area as the trough to the west begins to progress eastward,
yielding increasing midlevel lapse rates as well as a strengthening
southerly low level jet.  A series of weak impulses embedded in the
southwest flow through tonight ahead of the trough will serve to
amplify ascent over the area, particularly across southeast New
Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in coverage
across the aforementioned area tonight, and will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.  Locally heavy rainfall
will also continue to be a concern, with some areas still saturated
from previous rainfall over the past week, and precipitable water
values 2 standard deviations above normal.

The threat of thunderstorms will continue into Saturday as the
trough continues its eastward progression, with the best chance
shifting across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin coincident with
the dryline, which would serve as a focus for additional storm
development in the wake of departing storms from Friday night.
Rebounding temperatures, further steepening lapse rates, and
increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the approaching trough will
be favorable for strong to severe storm development once again, and
given ample speed and directional shear, supercells are possible.
Large hail, damaging wind, and an isolated tornado or two would be
the primary threats.

On Sunday, the trough axis will finally shift across the area, with
winds becoming westerly to southwesterly in its wake, allowing for
warmer and drier conditions across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas.  Aside from a chance of storms across the far eastern Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Monday where moisture will be most
available, dry conditions look to prevail through midweek.  The
warming trend will also continue through midweek, with temperatures
reaching into the upper 80s to lower to mid 90s by Wednesday.
However, models are in agreement regarding the development of yet
another western CONUS trough late in the period, which would mark a
return to an unsettled weather pattern with increasing precipitation
chances heading into the end of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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209
FXUS64 KMAF 221135
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
635 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.UPDATE...

Updated the forecast to include mention of areas of fog this
morning, as most observation sites across far southeast New
Mexico, the Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos are reporting
visibility reductions. Conditions are expected to improve by mid-
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Latest model runs are indicating clouds/CIGS/VBSY may lift a
little earlier than previous runs and generally have TAFs going
VFR around 21Z or a little earlier. Still looks like se winds will
increase late this afternoon/evening with low level jet, 15-20kts
surface winds. Finally have opted to intro a PROB30 group in the
forecast to account for storms expected in SE NM/NW PB Saturday
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The shortwave responsible for the precipitation over the past 24
hours will lift to the northeast today, with weak midlevel height
rises in its wake as precipitation gradually tapers off from
southwest to northeast. While partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
the rule today, temperatures will rebound noticeably, with highs in
the 70s across the southeast New Mexico Plains and Permian Basin, to
80s across the Trans Pecos and points west and south. Continued
southeasterly surface flow will maintain the very moist boundary
layer, and despite much of the northern half of the forecast area
remaining capped, locations across the Big Bend area and Lower Trans
Pecos could once again see strong to severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and into this evening as storms develop across higher
terrain and move into a moderately unstable environment
characterized by temperatures in the middle 80s and ample shear.
Primary risks with these storms are large hail and damaging winds,
as well as locally heavy rainfall.

Tonight, height falls will begin to overspread western portions of
the area as the trough to the west begins to progress eastward,
yielding increasing midlevel lapse rates as well as a strengthening
southerly low level jet.  A series of weak impulses embedded in the
southwest flow through tonight ahead of the trough will serve to
amplify ascent over the area, particularly across southeast New
Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in coverage
across the aforementioned area tonight, and will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.  Locally heavy rainfall
will also continue to be a concern, with some areas still saturated
from previous rainfall over the past week, and precipitable water
values 2 standard deviations above normal.

The threat of thunderstorms will continue into Saturday as the
trough continues its eastward progression, with the best chance
shifting across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin coincident with
the dryline, which would serve as a focus for additional storm
development in the wake of departing storms from Friday night.
Rebounding temperatures, further steepening lapse rates, and
increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the approaching trough will
be favorable for strong to severe storm development once again, and
given ample speed and directional shear, supercells are possible.
Large hail, damaging wind, and an isolated tornado or two would be
the primary threats.

On Sunday, the trough axis will finally shift across the area, with
winds becoming westerly to southwesterly in its wake, allowing for
warmer and drier conditions across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas.  Aside from a chance of storms across the far eastern Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Monday where moisture will be most
available, dry conditions look to prevail through midweek.  The
warming trend will also continue through midweek, with temperatures
reaching into the upper 80s to lower to mid 90s by Wednesday.
However, models are in agreement regarding the development of yet
another western CONUS trough late in the period, which would mark a
return to an unsettled weather pattern with increasing precipitation
chances heading into the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 76  64  79  60  /  40  50  40  50
BIG SPRING TX              77  67  80  63  /  40  50  60  60
CARLSBAD NM                81  58  83  53  /  20  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  85  70  83  65  /  30  40  50  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  66  82  60  /  30  40  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  55  77  54  /  10  30  10  20
HOBBS NM                   75  59  77  53  /  30  60  30  30
MARFA TX                   85  55  77  47  /  20  30  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  67  80  62  /  40  50  50  50
ODESSA TX                  79  67  80  62  /  40  50  50  50
WINK TX                    83  67  83  59  /  30  50  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/84

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906
FXUS64 KMAF 221112
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Latest model runs are indicating clouds/CIGS/VBSY may lift a
little earlier than previous runs and generally have TAFs going
VFR around 21Z or a little earlier. Still looks like se winds will
increase late this afternoon/evening with low level jet, 15-20kts
surface winds. Finally have opted to intro a PROB30 group in the
forecast to account for storms expected in SE NM/NW PB Saturday
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The shortwave responsible for the precipitation over the past 24
hours will lift to the northeast today, with weak midlevel height
rises in its wake as precipitation gradually tapers off from
southwest to northeast. While partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
the rule today, temperatures will rebound noticeably, with highs in
the 70s across the southeast New Mexico Plains and Permian Basin, to
80s across the Trans Pecos and points west and south. Continued
southeasterly surface flow will maintain the very moist boundary
layer, and despite much of the northern half of the forecast area
remaining capped, locations across the Big Bend area and Lower Trans
Pecos could once again see strong to severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and into this evening as storms develop across higher
terrain and move into a moderately unstable environment
characterized by temperatures in the middle 80s and ample shear.
Primary risks with these storms are large hail and damaging winds,
as well as locally heavy rainfall.

Tonight, height falls will begin to overspread western portions of
the area as the trough to the west begins to progress eastward,
yielding increasing midlevel lapse rates as well as a strengthening
southerly low level jet.  A series of weak impulses embedded in the
southwest flow through tonight ahead of the trough will serve to
amplify ascent over the area, particularly across southeast New
Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in coverage
across the aforementioned area tonight, and will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.  Locally heavy rainfall
will also continue to be a concern, with some areas still saturated
from previous rainfall over the past week, and precipitable water
values 2 standard deviations above normal.

The threat of thunderstorms will continue into Saturday as the
trough continues its eastward progression, with the best chance
shifting across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin coincident with
the dryline, which would serve as a focus for additional storm
development in the wake of departing storms from Friday night.
Rebounding temperatures, further steepening lapse rates, and
increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the approaching trough will
be favorable for strong to severe storm development once again, and
given ample speed and directional shear, supercells are possible.
Large hail, damaging wind, and an isolated tornado or two would be
the primary threats.

On Sunday, the trough axis will finally shift across the area, with
winds becoming westerly to southwesterly in its wake, allowing for
warmer and drier conditions across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas.  Aside from a chance of storms across the far eastern Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Monday where moisture will be most
available, dry conditions look to prevail through midweek.  The
warming trend will also continue through midweek, with temperatures
reaching into the upper 80s to lower to mid 90s by Wednesday.
However, models are in agreement regarding the development of yet
another western CONUS trough late in the period, which would mark a
return to an unsettled weather pattern with increasing precipitation
chances heading into the end of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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930
FXUS64 KMAF 220917
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
417 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The shortwave responsible for the precipitation over the past 24
hours will lift to the northeast today, with weak midlevel height
rises in its wake as precipitation gradually tapers off from
southwest to northeast. While partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
the rule today, temperatures will rebound noticeably, with highs in
the 70s across the southeast New Mexico Plains and Permian Basin, to
80s across the Trans Pecos and points west and south. Continued
southeasterly surface flow will maintain the very moist boundary
layer, and despite much of the northern half of the forecast area
remaining capped, locations across the Big Bend area and Lower Trans
Pecos could once again see strong to severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and into this evening as storms develop across higher
terrain and move into a moderately unstable environment
characterized by temperatures in the middle 80s and ample shear.
Primary risks with these storms are large hail and damaging winds,
as well as locally heavy rainfall.

Tonight, height falls will begin to overspread western portions of
the area as the trough to the west begins to progress eastward,
yielding increasing midlevel lapse rates as well as a strengthening
southerly low level jet.  A series of weak impulses embedded in the
southwest flow through tonight ahead of the trough will serve to
amplify ascent over the area, particularly across southeast New
Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in coverage
across the aforementioned area tonight, and will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.  Locally heavy rainfall
will also continue to be a concern, with some areas still saturated
from previous rainfall over the past week, and precipitable water
values 2 standard deviations above normal.

The threat of thunderstorms will continue into Saturday as the
trough continues its eastward progression, with the best chance
shifting across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin coincident with
the dryline, which would serve as a focus for additional storm
development in the wake of departing storms from Friday night.
Rebounding temperatures, further steepening lapse rates, and
increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the approaching trough will
be favorable for strong to severe storm development once again, and
given ample speed and directional shear, supercells are possible.
Large hail, damaging wind, and an isolated tornado or two would be
the primary threats.

On Sunday, the trough axis will finally shift across the area, with
winds becoming westerly to southwesterly in its wake, allowing for
warmer and drier conditions across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas.  Aside from a chance of storms across the far eastern Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Monday where moisture will be most
available, dry conditions look to prevail through midweek.  The
warming trend will also continue through midweek, with temperatures
reaching into the upper 80s to lower to mid 90s by Wednesday.
However, models are in agreement regarding the development of yet
another western CONUS trough late in the period, which would mark a
return to an unsettled weather pattern with increasing precipitation
chances heading into the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 76  64  79  60  /  40  50  40  50
BIG SPRING TX              77  67  80  63  /  40  50  60  60
CARLSBAD NM                81  58  83  53  /  20  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  85  70  83  65  /  30  40  50  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  66  82  60  /  30  40  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  55  77  54  /  10  30  10  20
HOBBS NM                   75  59  77  53  /  30  60  30  30
MARFA TX                   85  55  77  47  /  20  30  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  67  80  62  /  40  50  50  50
ODESSA TX                  79  67  80  62  /  40  50  50  50
WINK TX                    83  67  83  59  /  30  50  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/84

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373
FXUS64 KMAF 220514
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Little change in CIGS/VSBY thru 15Z or so when the IFR/LIFR
conditions start to lift, first at CNM/FST. At least brief VFR wx
is expected late PM. SE winds will strengthen noticeably by late
afternoon/evening to 15-20kts. We expect that convection will be
in a lull into/thru the afternoon before increasing again late
tonight, at the end of the this forecast period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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421
FXUS64 KMAF 212321
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Most storms are moving out of the area this evening though a few
could affect CNM later tonight near 06Z. Otherwise MVFR-IFR
conditions expected...possibly even LIFR near 12Z for much of the
next 24 hours. Some improvement can be expected after 18Z Friday,
perhaps even VFR conditions before the end of the TAF period, as
low clouds push east.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Currently have persistent moist, easterly/upslope flow across the
region this afternoon with a cool surface ridge centered over the TX
Panhandle. With a much cooler airmass in place and abundant cloud
cover, temperatures remain in the 50s most locations with the
exception of the far southern zones where 60s are more common.
Places along the Rio Grande, such as Presidio, are seeing temps near
80 with increasing instability as a result. Already seeing some
convection develop just south of the Rio Grande in Mexico and should
continue to see isolated strong to severe thunderstorms affect far
S/SW zones through this evening. Large hail, damaging winds and heavy
rainfall will be the main threats.

The next significant upper wave looks to swing through NM tonight
but the greatest upper forcing should stay to the NW of the CWA.
Regardless, we could get at least some weak forcing along with
overrunning of the cold air promoting some elevated showers with
embedded thunderstorms overnight. There could be pockets of heavier
precip given the available moisture and potential lift, so there
remains some concern for localized areas of flash flooding
overnight. Rain chances will wain and shift east Friday morning with
a short lull in thunderstorm activity for most areas through the
afternoon. Meanwhile, the upper trough that has been camping out
over the western ConUS will begin its slow progression eastward with
notable height falls overspreading the region late Friday night,
providing strong upper forcing for ascent through much of the
weekend. With continued moist southeasterly flow in place, will
continue to carry fairly decent PoPs Friday night through Sunday
morning. Again, there could be pockets of moderate to heavy rain so
concerns for flooding and flash flooding will continue.

The upper forcing will shift east of the FA Sunday with rain ending
from west to east. Significant height rises in the wake of the
departing upper low and dry, southwesterly winds most areas Monday
so most areas will remain dry Memorial Day. The GFS indicates an
upper wave passing through northern NM so upper forcing will likely
remain too far north. For now, have continued at least slight chance
PoPs across the far east where moisture would be more readily
available. Tuesday, may have some dryline thunderstorms but no
notable upper forcing attm so will carry silent PoPs for now.
Models indicate another west coast trough mid- late next week with
returning rain chances. Otherwise, temperatures will be on the
increase tomorrow through the weekend, heading toward normal
readings by mid next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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682
FXUS64 KMAF 211950
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Currently have persistent moist, easterly/upslope flow across the
region this afternoon with a cool surface ridge centered over the TX
Panhandle. With a much cooler airmass in place and abundant cloud
cover, temperatures remain in the 50s most locations with the
exception of the far southern zones where 60s are more common.
Places along the Rio Grande, such as Presidio, are seeing temps near
80 with increasing instability as a result. Already seeing some
convection develop just south of the Rio Grande in Mexico and should
continue to see isolated strong to severe thunderstorms affect far
S/SW zones through this evening. Large hail, damaging winds and heavy
rainfall will be the main threats.

The next significant upper wave looks to swing through NM tonight
but the greatest upper forcing should stay to the NW of the CWA.
Regardless, we could get at least some weak forcing along with
overrunning of the cold air promoting some elevated showers with
embedded thunderstorms overnight. There could be pockets of heavier
precip given the available moisture and potential lift, so there
remains some concern for localized areas of flash flooding
overnight. Rain chances will wain and shift east Friday morning with
a short lull in thunderstorm activity for most areas through the
afternoon. Meanwhile, the upper trough that has been camping out
over the western ConUS will begin its slow progression eastward with
notable height falls overspreading the region late Friday night,
providing strong upper forcing for ascent through much of the
weekend. With continued moist southeasterly flow in place, will
continue to carry fairly decent PoPs Friday night through Sunday
morning. Again, there could be pockets of moderate to heavy rain so
concerns for flooding and flash flooding will continue.

The upper forcing will shift east of the FA Sunday with rain ending
from west to east. Significant height rises in the wake of the
departing upper low and dry, southwesterly winds most areas Monday
so most areas will remain dry Memorial Day. The GFS indicates an
upper wave passing through northern NM so upper forcing will likely
remain too far north. For now, have continued at least slight chance
PoPs across the far east where moisture would be more readily
available. Tuesday, may have some dryline thunderstorms but no
notable upper forcing attm so will carry silent PoPs for now.
Models indicate another west coast trough mid- late next week with
returning rain chances. Otherwise, temperatures will be on the
increase tomorrow through the weekend, heading toward normal
readings by mid next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  76  64  79  /  60  40  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              56  77  67  80  /  60  40  50  60
CARLSBAD NM                52  80  59  83  /  60  20  40  20
DRYDEN TX                  65  85  70  83  /  60  20  30  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  84  67  82  /  60  20  30  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  78  56  76  /  50  10  30  20
HOBBS NM                   50  75  59  77  /  60  30  60  30
MARFA TX                   53  83  57  78  /  50  20  30  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  79  66  80  /  60  40  50  50
ODESSA TX                  55  79  66  80  /  60  40  50  50
WINK TX                    55  83  65  83  /  60  30  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27

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857
FXUS64 KMAF 211704
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Remaining IFR ceilings will give way to MVFR this afternoon,
which will persist at most terminals through the afternoon and
evening.  Expect ceilings to drop back to IFR tonight, along with
MVFR and IFR visibility in fog.  Will include probabilities for
TSRA at all terminals, mainly in the 22/02Z to 22/06Z time frame.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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241
FXUS64 KMAF 211123
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Stratus should remain over the region for the next 24 hrs. All
TAF sites have come down to IFR/LIFR cigs while fog has been
patchy with vsbys bouncing around. Cigs should stay low through
the morning and then slowly improve in the afternoon... may
briefly climb to MVFR before going down again tonight. Most sites
should see some light showers or storms today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An unseasonably cool and damp day is on tap across southeast New
Mexico and west Texas today in the wake of a cold front which has
become quasi-stationary across the Big Bend area. Temperatures today
are only expected to rise to the middle 50s across the southeastern
New Mexico plains to around 70 degrees across the Lower Trans
Pecos.  South of the front, temperatures markedly increase, with
highs in the 80s expected across the Big Bend area, and lower 90s
in the Rio Grande Valley. A series of weak disturbances in the
southwest flow aloft will provide forcing for ascent today ahead
of a more potent shortwave which looks to move across the region
overnight, and along with persistent moist easterly upslope flow,
will result in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity over
the next 24 hours. Cool temperatures and abundant cloud cover will
likely limit instability across much of the area today, though
through the Big Bend area where temperatures are expected to climb
into the 80s along and south of the stalled frontal boundary,
moderate instability is expected to combine with the upslope flow
and upper forcing to yield a threat for severe storm development.
Storms are expected to first develop over higher terrain, and as
they move into a more favorable/unstable environment, damaging
winds and large hail are expected to be the primary threat. Strong
shear across the Big Bend area and far Lower Trans Pecos near the
front will be supportive of supercells, and thus while not the
primary threat, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

As mentioned previously, a more potent shortwave is expected to
eject across the area tonight ahead of the western CONUS trough,
resulting in additional forcing for ascent and thus continued
opportunity for widespread showers/storms overnight.  However,
precipitation is expected to taper off early Friday morning as this
impulse lifts to the northeast, and with weak midlevel height rises
in the wake of this trough, a bit of reprieve is expected Friday as
temperatures begin to rebound into the 70s and 80s across much of
the area, with mid to upper 90s across the Rio Grande Valley.
For the weekend, sights turn to the western CONUS trough which
has been responsible for our maintained southwesterly flow aloft,
which will start to progress eastward on Saturday. Widespread
height falls and increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the trough
will yield increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms area-
wide through the weekend, given continued moisture-rich low levels
in persistent easterly/southeasterly flow. Warmer temperatures
through the weekend will also allow for at least moderate
instability, and thus, some of the storms on both Saturday and
Sunday could be strong to severe. The best chance for storms will
gradually shift eastward through the weekend as the upper trough
develops a positive tilt and lifts northeast of the area by late
Sunday/early Monday.

Upper ridging in the wake of the departing trough will yield a
break from precipitation through the first part of the week, as
temperatures climb back to near seasonal normals in the mid to
upper 80s and low 90s by Tuesday. Beyond midweek, the picture is
a bit less clear, as the GFS once again develops a longwave trough
over the western CONUS, resulting in a return to southwesterly
flow aloft by next Wednesday/Thursday, whereas the ECMWF maintains
more quasi-zonal flow through the end of next week, with only a
very weak trough developing over California. Will wait and see how
future model runs handle the evolution of the upper air pattern
before making any sweeping changes to the extended that far out.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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629
FXUS64 KMAF 210947
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
447 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

An unseasonably cool and damp day is on tap across southeast New
Mexico and west Texas today in the wake of a cold front which has
become quasi-stationary across the Big Bend area. Temperatures today
are only expected to rise to the middle 50s across the southeastern
New Mexico plains to around 70 degrees across the Lower Trans
Pecos.  South of the front, temperatures markedly increase, with
highs in the 80s expected across the Big Bend area, and lower 90s
in the Rio Grande Valley. A series of weak disturbances in the
southwest flow aloft will provide forcing for ascent today ahead
of a more potent shortwave which looks to move across the region
overnight, and along with persistent moist easterly upslope flow,
will result in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity over
the next 24 hours. Cool temperatures and abundant cloud cover will
likely limit instability across much of the area today, though
through the Big Bend area where temperatures are expected to climb
into the 80s along and south of the stalled frontal boundary,
moderate instability is expected to combine with the upslope flow
and upper forcing to yield a threat for severe storm development.
Storms are expected to first develop over higher terrain, and as
they move into a more favorable/unstable environment, damaging
winds and large hail are expected to be the primary threat. Strong
shear across the Big Bend area and far Lower Trans Pecos near the
front will be supportive of supercells, and thus while not the
primary threat, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

As mentioned previously, a more potent shortwave is expected to
eject across the area tonight ahead of the western CONUS trough,
resulting in additional forcing for ascent and thus continued
opportunity for widespread showers/storms overnight.  However,
precipitation is expected to taper off early Friday morning as this
impulse lifts to the northeast, and with weak midlevel height rises
in the wake of this trough, a bit of reprieve is expected Friday as
temperatures begin to rebound into the 70s and 80s across much of
the area, with mid to upper 90s across the Rio Grande Valley.
For the weekend, sights turn to the western CONUS trough which
has been responsible for our maintained southwesterly flow aloft,
which will start to progress eastward on Saturday. Widespread
height falls and increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the trough
will yield increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms area-
wide through the weekend, given continued moisture-rich low levels
in persistent easterly/southeasterly flow. Warmer temperatures
through the weekend will also allow for at least moderate
instability, and thus, some of the storms on both Saturday and
Sunday could be strong to severe. The best chance for storms will
gradually shift eastward through the weekend as the upper trough
develops a positive tilt and lifts northeast of the area by late
Sunday/early Monday.

Upper ridging in the wake of the departing trough will yield a
break from precipitation through the first part of the week, as
temperatures climb back to near seasonal normals in the mid to
upper 80s and low 90s by Tuesday. Beyond midweek, the picture is
a bit less clear, as the GFS once again develops a longwave trough
over the western CONUS, resulting in a return to southwesterly
flow aloft by next Wednesday/Thursday, whereas the ECMWF maintains
more quasi-zonal flow through the end of next week, with only a
very weak trough developing over California. Will wait and see how
future model runs handle the evolution of the upper air pattern
before making any sweeping changes to the extended that far out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  54  76  63  /  60  70  40  50
BIG SPRING TX              62  57  79  66  /  60  70  40  40
CARLSBAD NM                59  54  82  60  /  70  60  20  40
DRYDEN TX                  79  67  86  71  /  50  70  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  60  86  67  /  60  60  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  54  77  56  /  60  50  10  30
HOBBS NM                   54  51  75  58  /  70  70  30  60
MARFA TX                   73  52  86  55  /  60  50  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  56  80  66  /  60  60  40  40
ODESSA TX                  63  56  80  66  /  60  60  40  40
WINK TX                    65  56  85  67  /  70  60  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/84

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597
FXUS64 KMAF 210549
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1249 AM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread stratus will continue over the region through the TAF period.
Will trend to IFR/LIFR cigs and vsbys overnight with some fog and/or
light rain.  Cigs should slowly rise during the afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015/

UPDATE...

An update has been sent to include the SVR Watch for the southern
Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of
the week under persistent SW flow aloft thanks to continued upper
troughing over the western ConUS. Currently have a cold front
slowly sinking south toward the Pecos River Valley this afternoon
with temperatures generally in the 60s across much of SE NM and
the Permian Basin thanks to abundant cloud cover and cold air
advection. To the south, plenty of heating and moisture has
resulted in increased instability across these areas and we
already have some elevated convection developing just to the
north of the front and strong to severe storms across the Lower
Trans Pecos/Big Bend area. Relatively strong instability and 0-6km
bulk shear pushing 40kt across southern areas would continue to
support strong to severe thunderstorms through the afternoon and
early evening. And much like the last couple of days, storms will
be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall
and not to mention the potential for a tornado or two.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to spread across the
region overnight into Thursday morning. Moist, easterly/upslope flow
will persist through the day Thursday as a midlevel shortwave moves
overhead in SW flow aloft, providing some upper forcing for ascent.
Forecast models continue to hold onto widespread QPF Thursday into
Friday and so remains the concern for flooding and flash flooding
potential through Friday morning. May get a bit of a break Friday
afternoon as no noticeable upper forcing is currently evident.
Meanwhile, the upper trough to the west will begin its slow
progression eastward with notable height falls overspreading the
region Friday night into Saturday, providing upper forcing for
ascent through much of the weekend. Highest rain chances will be
across the eastern half of the CWA, where higher moisture resides.
Rain chances finally shift east Sunday evening as the ua trough
axis moves to the east and weak upper ridging takes over through
the beginning of next week. This would likely bring us a short
period of dry weather before SW flow aloft and rain chances return
mid week.

High temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow with highs ranging
from near 60 across the far north to near 80 across the Big Bend.
A warming trend is expected Friday through the weekend with near
normal temperatures expected by early next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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182
FXUS64 KMAF 202331
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Complicated terminal forecast tonight and Thursday behind a cold
front that moved through earlier today. IFR and LIFR cigs and
vsbys can be expected later tonight with light rain possible as
well. Strong northeasterly winds will gradually decrease through
the morning hours Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015/

UPDATE...

An update has been sent to include the SVR Watch for the southern
Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of
the week under persistent SW flow aloft thanks to continued upper
troughing over the western ConUS. Currently have a cold front
slowly sinking south toward the Pecos River Valley this afternoon
with temperatures generally in the 60s across much of SE NM and
the Permian Basin thanks to abundant cloud cover and cold air
advection. To the south, plenty of heating and moisture has
resulted in increased instability across these areas and we
already have some elevated convection developing just to the
north of the front and strong to severe storms across the Lower
Trans Pecos/Big Bend area. Relatively strong instability and 0-6km
bulk shear pushing 40kt across southern areas would continue to
support strong to severe thunderstorms through the afternoon and
early evening. And much like the last couple of days, storms will
be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall
and not to mention the potential for a tornado or two.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to spread across the
region overnight into Thursday morning. Moist, easterly/upslope flow
will persist through the day Thursday as a midlevel shortwave moves
overhead in SW flow aloft, providing some upper forcing for ascent.
Forecast models continue to hold onto widespread QPF Thursday into
Friday and so remains the concern for flooding and flash flooding
potential through Friday morning. May get a bit of a break Friday
afternoon as no noticeable upper forcing is currently evident.
Meanwhile, the upper trough to the west will begin its slow
progression eastward with notable height falls overspreading the
region Friday night into Saturday, providing upper forcing for
ascent through much of the weekend. Highest rain chances will be
across the eastern half of the CWA, where higher moisture resides.
Rain chances finally shift east Sunday evening as the ua trough
axis moves to the east and weak upper ridging takes over through
the beginning of next week. This would likely bring us a short
period of dry weather before SW flow aloft and rain chances return
mid week.

High temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow with highs ranging
from near 60 across the far north to near 80 across the Big Bend.
A warming trend is expected Friday through the weekend with near
normal temperatures expected by early next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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923
FXUS64 KMAF 202236
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
536 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.UPDATE...

An update has been sent to include the SVR Watch for the southern
Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of
the week under persistent SW flow aloft thanks to continued upper
troughing over the western ConUS. Currently have a cold front
slowly sinking south toward the Pecos River Valley this afternoon
with temperatures generally in the 60s across much of SE NM and
the Permian Basin thanks to abundant cloud cover and cold air
advection. To the south, plenty of heating and moisture has
resulted in increased instability across these areas and we
already have some elevated convection developing just to the
north of the front and strong to severe storms across the Lower
Trans Pecos/Big Bend area. Relatively strong instability and 0-6km
bulk shear pushing 40kt across southern areas would continue to
support strong to severe thunderstorms through the afternoon and
early evening. And much like the last couple of days, storms will
be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall
and not to mention the potential for a tornado or two.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to spread across the
region overnight into Thursday morning. Moist, easterly/upslope flow
will persist through the day Thursday as a midlevel shortwave moves
overhead in SW flow aloft, providing some upper forcing for ascent.
Forecast models continue to hold onto widespread QPF Thursday into
Friday and so remains the concern for flooding and flash flooding
potential through Friday morning. May get a bit of a break Friday
afternoon as no noticeable upper forcing is currently evident.
Meanwhile, the upper trough to the west will begin its slow
progression eastward with notable height falls overspreading the
region Friday night into Saturday, providing upper forcing for
ascent through much of the weekend. Highest rain chances will be
across the eastern half of the CWA, where higher moisture resides.
Rain chances finally shift east Sunday evening as the ua trough
axis moves to the east and weak upper ridging takes over through
the beginning of next week. This would likely bring us a short
period of dry weather before SW flow aloft and rain chances return
mid week.

High temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow with highs ranging
from near 60 across the far north to near 80 across the Big Bend.
A warming trend is expected Friday through the weekend with near
normal temperatures expected by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 55  62  54  78  /  50  60  60  40
BIG SPRING TX              56  64  57  79  /  50  50  60  40
CARLSBAD NM                56  65  55  83  /  50  70  60  20
DRYDEN TX                  68  78  67  87  /  50  50  60  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           61  71  62  86  /  50  60  60  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          54  63  55  80  /  40  60  50  10
HOBBS NM                   53  60  52  76  /  40  60  60  40
MARFA TX                   55  74  54  85  /  40  60  50  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  63  57  80  /  50  60  60  40
ODESSA TX                  56  64  57  80  /  50  60  60  40
WINK TX                    59  68  59  85  /  50  60  60  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/99

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509
FXUS64 KMAF 201941
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
241 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of
the week under persistent SW flow aloft thanks to continued upper
troughing over the western ConUS. Currently have a cold front
slowly sinking south toward the Pecos River Valley this afternoon
with temperatures generally in the 60s across much of SE NM and
the Permian Basin thanks to abundant cloud cover and cold air
advection. To the south, plenty of heating and moisture has
resulted in increased instability across these areas and we
already have some elevated convection developing just to the
north of the front and strong to severe storms across the Lower
Trans Pecos/Big Bend area. Relatively strong instability and 0-6km
bulk shear pushing 40kt across southern areas would continue to
support strong to severe thunderstorms through the afternoon and
early evening. And much like the last couple of days, storms will
be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall
and not to mention the potential for a tornado or two.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to spread across the
region overnight into Thursday morning. Moist, easterly/upslope flow
will persist through the day Thursday as a midlevel shortwave moves
overhead in SW flow aloft, providing some upper forcing for ascent.
Forecast models continue to hold onto widespread QPF Thursday into
Friday and so remains the concern for flooding and flash flooding
potential through Friday morning. May get a bit of a break Friday
afternoon as no noticeable upper forcing is currently evident.
Meanwhile, the upper trough to the west will begin its slow
progression eastward with notable height falls overspreading the
region Friday night into Saturday, providing upper forcing for
ascent through much of the weekend. Highest rain chances will be
across the eastern half of the CWA, where higher moisture resides.
Rain chances finally shift east Sunday evening as the ua trough
axis moves to the east and weak upper ridging takes over through
the beginning of next week. This would likely bring us a short
period of dry weather before SW flow aloft and rain chances return
mid week.

High temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow with highs ranging
from near 60 across the far north to near 80 across the Big Bend.
A warming trend is expected Friday through the weekend with near
normal temperatures expected by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 55  62  54  78  /  50  60  60  40
BIG SPRING TX              56  64  57  79  /  50  50  60  40
CARLSBAD NM                56  65  55  83  /  50  70  60  20
DRYDEN TX                  68  78  67  87  /  50  50  60  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           61  71  62  86  /  50  60  60  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          54  63  55  80  /  40  60  50  10
HOBBS NM                   53  60  52  76  /  40  60  60  40
MARFA TX                   55  74  54  85  /  40  60  50  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  63  57  80  /  50  60  60  40
ODESSA TX                  56  64  57  80  /  50  60  60  40
WINK TX                    59  68  59  85  /  50  60  60  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/99

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609
FXUS64 KMAF 201647
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1147 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front just north of KMAF,
w/rapidly deteriorating cigs behind. As PBL winds continue to veer
behind the front, isentropic upglide will commence NE-SW, bringing
in LIFR cigs to KMAF/KHOB...IFR to KCNM/KFST...and MVFR to
KINK/KPEQ. Fog will be possible as well, but cigs appear to be the
limiting factor attm. Forecast soundings improve little, if at all, by
the end of the forecast period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front currently along a line from roughly Aspermont to Tatum
to just south of Roswell will continue its southward push well ahead
of schedule, moving through the area during the morning hours.
Widespread cloudcover will fill in behind the front as it moves
south, and looking upstream, a few showers and thunderstorms
began to develop along and behind the front as it moved through
Lubbock, which could continue into the northern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains this morning, though no severe weather
is expected with these storms. Temperatures behind the front are
quite cool for this time of year, with early morning temperatures
across the northern Panhandle in the low to middle 40s. The cool
air will continue filtering south behind the front today, thus
have sided with cooler guidance across southeast New Mexico and
the Permian Basin, with highs only expected to make it into the
upper 60s and 70s, with around 80 degrees possible closer to the
Pecos River.

The front will slow its southward progression by this afternoon,
with temperatures across the Lower Trans Pecos and points south
still expected to climb well into the 80s, with some 90s possible
along the Rio Grande.  While forcing along the front itself will not
be great, strong boundary later heating and steepening lapse rates
are expected to be enough to generate convection once again this
afternoon, mainly across the Lower Trans Pecos and far southern
Permian Basin. The Storm Prediction Center has included the
aforementioned area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, with
the primary threats expected to be large hail and damaging winds.
Thunderstorms are possible across much of the remainder of the area
today as well, though initiation will be dependent on how long low
clouds remain entrenched in the wake of this morning`s cold front.

Precipitation chances will increase tonight through Thursday night
area-wide as disturbances embedded in the southwest flow aloft move
over the region, interacting with the stalled frontal boundary and
moist low levels, providing ample lift for showers and
thunderstorms. All models generate copious amounts of QPF during
the Thursday- Thursday night time frame, thus, locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern, especially for those locations that
remain saturated from previous rainfall events this week. Ample
cloudcover as well as precipitation on Thursday will keep
temperatures across southeast New Mexico and west Texas quite cool
for this time of year, with highs generally in the 60s and 70s,
around 20 degrees below normal for some locations. The forecast
high for Midland on Thursday of 65 degrees, if verified, would be
a new record low maximum temperature for May 21. The current
record is 68 degrees, which occurred May 21, 1943.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday, and continue to climb
through the weekend. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
also remain through the weekend, first as a potent shortwave
ejects across the area on Friday ahead of the larger scale western
CONUS trough, and then ahead of the trough which looks to finally
begin to progress eastward on Saturday. The trough will develop a
positive tilt as it lifts across the region on Sunday, with weak
ridging developing in its wake for Monday and Tuesday. This would
spell a break in precipitation early next week, with temperatures
climbing back into the mid to upper 80s to lower 90s by Tuesday,
much closer to normal for this time of year.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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506
FXUS64 KMAF 201127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front has made it through HOB... CNM is also coming around
to the N. Extensive MVFR cigs that cover most of the region this
morning will be slow to break up but should improve to VFR during
the afternoon. Could see a few afternoon storms around MAF and
FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front currently along a line from roughly Aspermont to Tatum
to just south of Roswell will continue its southward push well ahead
of schedule, moving through the area during the morning hours.
Widespread cloudcover will fill in behind the front as it moves
south, and looking upstream, a few showers and thunderstorms
began to develop along and behind the front as it moved through
Lubbock, which could continue into the northern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains this morning, though no severe weather
is expected with these storms. Temperatures behind the front are
quite cool for this time of year, with early morning temperatures
across the northern Panhandle in the low to middle 40s. The cool
air will continue filtering south behind the front today, thus
have sided with cooler guidance across southeast New Mexico and
the Permian Basin, with highs only expected to make it into the
upper 60s and 70s, with around 80 degrees possible closer to the
Pecos River.

The front will slow its southward progression by this afternoon,
with temperatures across the Lower Trans Pecos and points south
still expected to climb well into the 80s, with some 90s possible
along the Rio Grande.  While forcing along the front itself will not
be great, strong boundary later heating and steepening lapse rates
are expected to be enough to generate convection once again this
afternoon, mainly across the Lower Trans Pecos and far southern
Permian Basin. The Storm Prediction Center has included the
aforementioned area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, with
the primary threats expected to be large hail and damaging winds.
Thunderstorms are possible across much of the remainder of the area
today as well, though initiation will be dependent on how long low
clouds remain entrenched in the wake of this morning`s cold front.

Precipitation chances will increase tonight through Thursday night
area-wide as disturbances embedded in the southwest flow aloft move
over the region, interacting with the stalled frontal boundary and
moist low levels, providing ample lift for showers and
thunderstorms. All models generate copious amounts of QPF during
the Thursday- Thursday night time frame, thus, locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern, especially for those locations that
remain saturated from previous rainfall events this week. Ample
cloudcover as well as precipitation on Thursday will keep
temperatures across southeast New Mexico and west Texas quite cool
for this time of year, with highs generally in the 60s and 70s,
around 20 degrees below normal for some locations. The forecast
high for Midland on Thursday of 65 degrees, if verified, would be
a new record low maximum temperature for May 21. The current
record is 68 degrees, which occurred May 21, 1943.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday, and continue to climb
through the weekend. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
also remain through the weekend, first as a potent shortwave
ejects across the area on Friday ahead of the larger scale western
CONUS trough, and then ahead of the trough which looks to finally
begin to progress eastward on Saturday. The trough will develop a
positive tilt as it lifts across the region on Sunday, with weak
ridging developing in its wake for Monday and Tuesday. This would
spell a break in precipitation early next week, with temperatures
climbing back into the mid to upper 80s to lower 90s by Tuesday,
much closer to normal for this time of year.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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076
FXUS64 KMAF 200930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
430 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front currently along a line from roughly Aspermont to Tatum
to just south of Roswell will continue its southward push well ahead
of schedule, moving through the area during the morning hours.
Widespread cloudcover will fill in behind the front as it moves
south, and looking upstream, a few showers and thunderstorms
began to develop along and behind the front as it moved through
Lubbock, which could continue into the northern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains this morning, though no severe weather
is expected with these storms. Temperatures behind the front are
quite cool for this time of year, with early morning temperatures
across the northern Panhandle in the low to middle 40s. The cool
air will continue filtering south behind the front today, thus
have sided with cooler guidance across southeast New Mexico and
the Permian Basin, with highs only expected to make it into the
upper 60s and 70s, with around 80 degrees possible closer to the
Pecos River.

The front will slow its southward progression by this afternoon,
with temperatures across the Lower Trans Pecos and points south
still expected to climb well into the 80s, with some 90s possible
along the Rio Grande.  While forcing along the front itself will not
be great, strong boundary later heating and steepening lapse rates
are expected to be enough to generate convection once again this
afternoon, mainly across the Lower Trans Pecos and far southern
Permian Basin. The Storm Prediction Center has included the
aforementioned area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, with
the primary threats expected to be large hail and damaging winds.
Thunderstorms are possible across much of the remainder of the area
today as well, though initiation will be dependent on how long low
clouds remain entrenched in the wake of this morning`s cold front.

Precipitation chances will increase tonight through Thursday night
area-wide as disturbances embedded in the southwest flow aloft move
over the region, interacting with the stalled frontal boundary and
moist low levels, providing ample lift for showers and
thunderstorms. All models generate copious amounts of QPF during
the Thursday- Thursday night time frame, thus, locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern, especially for those locations that
remain saturated from previous rainfall events this week. Ample
cloudcover as well as precipitation on Thursday will keep
temperatures across southeast New Mexico and west Texas quite cool
for this time of year, with highs generally in the 60s and 70s,
around 20 degrees below normal for some locations. The forecast
high for Midland on Thursday of 65 degrees, if verified, would be
a new record low maximum temperature for May 21. The current
record is 68 degrees, which occurred May 21, 1943.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday, and continue to climb
through the weekend. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
also remain through the weekend, first as a potent shortwave
ejects across the area on Friday ahead of the larger scale western
CONUS trough, and then ahead of the trough which looks to finally
begin to progress eastward on Saturday. The trough will develop a
positive tilt as it lifts across the region on Sunday, with weak
ridging developing in its wake for Monday and Tuesday. This would
spell a break in precipitation early next week, with temperatures
climbing back into the mid to upper 80s to lower 90s by Tuesday,
much closer to normal for this time of year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  56  64  56  /  30  40  50  70
BIG SPRING TX              78  57  65  58  /  40  50  50  60
CARLSBAD NM                81  57  66  56  /  10  40  60  50
DRYDEN TX                  87  69  80  68  /  30  40  50  60
FORT STOCKTON TX           85  62  74  63  /  20  40  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          78  55  66  55  /  10  30  50  50
HOBBS NM                   74  52  61  53  /  20  40  60  60
MARFA TX                   83  55  74  52  /  10  20  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  55  65  59  /  30  40  50  60
ODESSA TX                  76  55  66  58  /  30  40  50  60
WINK TX                    82  63  69  59  /  20  40  60  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/84

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582
FXUS64 KMAF 200541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front can currently be seen on radar just N of LBB moving S.
This front will push through most TAF locations in the 10-13z time
frame. Have low clouds moving down behind this front and also
have low clouds moving up/developing on the moist southerly flow.
Expect MVFR/IFR cigs this morning at HOB/MAF/INK/FST. All TAF
sites should be VFR by this afternoon. Some afternoon storms could
be seen near MAF and FST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of
the week under persistent SW flow aloft thanks to continued upper
troughing over the western ConUS. The recent thunderstorm activity
has given us a short break through much of the morning and early
this afternoon, giving the atmosphere time to recharge a bit.
Several places near the Coyanosa/Pecos/Grandfalls area are still
feeling the lingering effects of yesterday`s heavy rainfall as many
road remain closed due to high water. As a result, an Areal Flood
Warning is still in effect for these areas. Otherwise, we decided to
let the Flash Flood Watch expire at 18Z today but some localized
flash flooding will be possible any thunderstorm that develops today.

Currently have a few showers developing over northern Pecos and
Crane Counties. Should see thunderstorm development increase over
the next few hours as the dryline sharpens near the TX/NM border.
Daytime heating and more than sufficient moisture (dewpoints in the
upper 60s and near 70) will result in plenty of instability to help
initiate strong to severe convection this afternoon. The environment
looks to favor supercell storm modes capable of producing large
hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and not to mention the
potential for a tornado or two. Thunderstorm activity looks to wain
overnight with the loss of daytime heating.

Wednesday...things should be fairly quiet through early afternoon as
a cold front sinks south through the TX Panhandle. This front looks
to arrive sometime Wednesday afternoon with thunderstorms developing
along and behind it, affecting mainly the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos through late evening. Model guidance shows the front
stalling across the CWA overnight with shower and thunderstorm
activity spreading across most areas by Thursday morning. Moist,
easterly flow will persist through the day Thursday as a potent
midlevel shortwave provides upper forcing for ascent through the
overnight hours. A a result, will continue to carry healthy rain
chances through Thursday night and into Friday morning. Thunderstorm
chances will continue through most of the weekend as the upper
trough to the west slowly progresses eastward. May develop westerly
flow aloft by early next week which could result in a short dry
period for our area.

High temperatures will be in the 80s once again tomorrow then a cool
down Thursday due to the cold front and abundant cloud cover expected.
Highs will only warm to the 60s for much of SE NM and northern PB
and 70s to low 80s farther south. Temperatures then begin to warm
back up Friday through the weekend with near normal temperatures
expected by early next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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835
FXUS64 KMAF 192331
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Southwest winds will give way to southeast winds as a dryline
backs up to the west overnight. A weak cold front will arrive
12-18Z shifting the winds from the northeast. Ahead of this front
moist southeast winds will bring in MVFR/IFR CIGs to MAF/HOB/INK
before lifting back to VFR with the arrival of the front.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of
the week under persistent SW flow aloft thanks to continued upper
troughing over the western ConUS. The recent thunderstorm activity
has given us a short break through much of the morning and early
this afternoon, giving the atmosphere time to recharge a bit.
Several places near the Coyanosa/Pecos/Grandfalls area are still
feeling the lingering effects of yesterday`s heavy rainfall as many
road remain closed due to high water. As a result, an Areal Flood
Warning is still in effect for these areas. Otherwise, we decided to
let the Flash Flood Watch expire at 18Z today but some localized
flash flooding will be possible any thunderstorm that develops today.

Currently have a few showers developing over northern Pecos and
Crane Counties. Should see thunderstorm development increase over
the next few hours as the dryline sharpens near the TX/NM border.
Daytime heating and more than sufficient moisture (dewpoints in the
upper 60s and near 70) will result in plenty of instability to help
initiate strong to severe convection this afternoon. The environment
looks to favor supercell storm modes capable of producing large
hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and not to mention the
potential for a tornado or two. Thunderstorm activity looks to wain
overnight with the loss of daytime heating.

Wednesday...things should be fairly quiet through early afternoon as
a cold front sinks south through the TX Panhandle. This front looks
to arrive sometime Wednesday afternoon with thunderstorms developing
along and behind it, affecting mainly the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos through late evening. Model guidance shows the front
stalling across the CWA overnight with shower and thunderstorm
activity spreading across most areas by Thursday morning. Moist,
easterly flow will persist through the day Thursday as a potent
midlevel shortwave provides upper forcing for ascent through the
overnight hours. A a result, will continue to carry healthy rain
chances through Thursday night and into Friday morning. Thunderstorm
chances will continue through most of the weekend as the upper
trough to the west slowly progresses eastward. May develop westerly
flow aloft by early next week which could result in a short dry
period for our area.

High temperatures will be in the 80s once again tomorrow then a cool
down Thursday due to the cold front and abundant cloud cover expected.
Highs will only warm to the 60s for much of SE NM and northern PB
and 70s to low 80s farther south. Temperatures then begin to warm
back up Friday through the weekend with near normal temperatures
expected by early next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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746
FXUS64 KMAF 191948
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
248 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The active weather pattern will continue through the remainder of
the week under persistent SW flow aloft thanks to continued upper
troughing over the western ConUS. The recent thunderstorm activity
has given us a short break through much of the morning and early
this afternoon, giving the atmosphere time to recharge a bit.
Several places near the Coyanosa/Pecos/Grandfalls area are still
feeling the lingering effects of yesterday`s heavy rainfall as many
road remain closed due to high water. As a result, an Areal Flood
Warning is still in effect for these areas. Otherwise, we decided to
let the Flash Flood Watch expire at 18Z today but some localized
flash flooding will be possible any thunderstorm that develops today.

Currently have a few showers developing over northern Pecos and
Crane Counties. Should see thunderstorm development increase over
the next few hours as the dryline sharpens near the TX/NM border.
Daytime heating and more than sufficient moisture (dewpoints in the
upper 60s and near 70) will result in plenty of instability to help
initiate strong to severe convection this afternoon. The environment
looks to favor supercell storm modes capable of producing large
hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and not to mention the
potential for a tornado or two. Thunderstorm activity looks to wain
overnight with the loss of daytime heating.

Wednesday...things should be fairly quiet through early afternoon as
a cold front sinks south through the TX Panhandle. This front looks
to arrive sometime Wednesday afternoon with thunderstorms developing
along and behind it, affecting mainly the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos through late evening. Model guidance shows the front
stalling across the CWA overnight with shower and thunderstorm
activity spreading across most areas by Thursday morning. Moist,
easterly flow will persist through the day Thursday as a potent
midlevel shortwave provides upper forcing for ascent through the
overnight hours. A a result, will continue to carry healthy rain
chances through Thursday night and into Friday morning. Thunderstorm
chances will continue through most of the weekend as the upper
trough to the west slowly progresses eastward. May develop westerly
flow aloft by early next week which could result in a short dry
period for our area.

High temperatures will be in the 80s once again tomorrow then a cool
down Thursday due to the cold front and abundant cloud cover expected.
Highs will only warm to the 60s for much of SE NM and northern PB
and 70s to low 80s farther south. Temperatures then begin to warm
back up Friday through the weekend with near normal temperatures
expected by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  82  56  64  /  20  20  40  50
BIG SPRING TX              67  81  58  66  /  30  40  50  50
CARLSBAD NM                55  85  57  70  /  10  10  40  60
DRYDEN TX                  69  88  69  81  /  20  30  40  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  87  63  76  /  20  20  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  80  55  69  /  10   0  30  50
HOBBS NM                   59  80  54  63  /  20  20  40  50
MARFA TX                   51  83  55  77  /  10  10  20  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  82  59  67  /  20  30  40  50
ODESSA TX                  66  83  59  69  /  20  30  40  50
WINK TX                    64  88  63  71  /  20  10  40  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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300
FXUS64 KMAF 191729
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 PM CDT Tue May 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Satellite imagery and sfc obs show all terminals scattering out as
cigs erode, w/VFR conditions expected everywhere by 21Z. Latest
buffer soundings show a return of LIFR stratus at KMAF overnight,
and perhaps KHOB, but all other terminals should remain VFR.
Convection this afternoon looks to stay east of terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT Tue May 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms over southeastern New Mexico will
continue to move ENE through the morning, and could impact KHOB
through the first hour of the forecast period. A second line of
storms extending southward from roughly KBWS to KMAF could affect
KMAF, especially if there`s any additional development behind the
line or on the southern flank, thus have included a TEMPO from
12-14Z this morning for MVFR cigs and TSRA affecting the terminal.
Otherwise, transient MVFR/IFR ceilings could affect area
terminals this morning, though are expected to improve to VFR by
around 15Z. VFR conditions will then prevail, with the caveat being
the development of afternoon SHRA/TSRA, which is most likely to
affect KINK, KMAF, and KFST. However, uncertainties regarding the
timing of afternoon storms precludes mention in the current TAF,
though heavy rain, hail, and strong winds are expected with storms
that do develop.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Tue May 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern remains active with a train of upper lows continuing
this week.  This morning an upper low was centered over the
Intermountain West with SW flow reaching across the area.  The first
low will move off to the east as another trough develops along the
CA coast.  This will develop into a closed low before rolling east
later in the week.  The result of this will be a continuation of the
wet pattern for the area.

Evening storms with severe wx and flash flooding lingered into the
early morning hours before moving east.  West TX Mesonet at
Coyanosa reported 4.15 inches and St.Lawrence reported 1.54
inches... most of that falling in 1 hr.  An Areal Flood Warning will
remain in effect all night due to the heavy rain near Coyanosa that
resulted in several feet of water over the road.  A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect through midday generally along and north of
the Pecos River.  Surface dewpts into the 60s... even as far west as
CNM... and model soundings show PW over 1.3 inches indicate the
potential for heavy rain will continue through the morning.  Most of
the additional rain today should be northeast of Pecos county but
since flooding is ongoing will add them to the FFA.

More storms expected today and have the potential for flash flooding
and severe wx.  The best chance of rain today will be over the
NE Permian Basin and carrying likely pops.  Most models seem to be in
some agreement as to developing additional storms to the west of the
area overnight and moving it across the region early in the day.  As
of 08z have begun to get some new development across Eddy and Chavez
counties.  Flooding will be the main concern through midday with
severe wx in the afternoon.  Looking at the development of a dryline
this afternoon which could become the focus for storm development.
There is a slight risk of severe wx today mainly for the eastern
half of the area.  Supercells will be possible during the afternoon
with hail... wind... and a few tornadoes.  Models develop pops and
qpf like crazy over the next several days... especially Thursday and
Friday.

Temps will be in the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front
moves through late Wednesday. E/NE wind will keep it cooler on
Thursday with highs in the 70s.  Warmer temps return to the 80s on
Thursday and continue that way into early next week.  Lows in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon MDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

44

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653
FXUS64 KMAF 191123
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 AM CDT Tue May 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms over southeastern New Mexico will
continue to move ENE through the morning, and could impact KHOB
through the first hour of the forecast period. A second line of
storms extending southward from roughly KBWS to KMAF could affect
KMAF, especially if there`s any additional development behind the
line or on the southern flank, thus have included a TEMPO from
12-14Z this morning for MVFR cigs and TSRA affecting the terminal.
Otherwise, transient MVFR/IFR ceilings could affect area
terminals this morning, though are expected to improve to VFR by
around 15Z. VFR conditions will then prevail, with the caveat being
the development of afternoon SHRA/TSRA, which is most likely to
affect KINK, KMAF, and KFST. However, uncertainties regarding the
timing of afternoon storms precludes mention in the current TAF,
though heavy rain, hail, and strong winds are expected with storms
that do develop.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Tue May 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern remains active with a train of upper lows continuing
this week.  This morning an upper low was centered over the
Intermountain West with SW flow reaching across the area.  The first
low will move off to the east as another trough develops along the
CA coast.  This will develop into a closed low before rolling east
later in the week.  The result of this will be a continuation of the
wet pattern for the area.

Evening storms with severe wx and flash flooding lingered into the
early morning hours before moving east.  West TX Mesonet at
Coyanosa reported 4.15 inches and St.Lawrence reported 1.54
inches... most of that falling in 1 hr.  An Areal Flood Warning will
remain in effect all night due to the heavy rain near Coyanosa that
resulted in several feet of water over the road.  A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect through midday generally along and north of
the Pecos River.  Surface dewpts into the 60s... even as far west as
CNM... and model soundings show PW over 1.3 inches indicate the
potential for heavy rain will continue through the morning.  Most of
the additional rain today should be northeast of Pecos county but
since flooding is ongoing will add them to the FFA.

More storms expected today and have the potential for flash flooding
and severe wx.  The best chance of rain today will be over the
NE Permian Basin and carrying likely pops.  Most models seem to be in
some agreement as to developing additional storms to the west of the
area overnight and moving it across the region early in the day.  As
of 08z have begun to get some new development across Eddy and Chavez
counties.  Flooding will be the main concern through midday with
severe wx in the afternoon.  Looking at the development of a dryline
this afternoon which could become the focus for storm development.
There is a slight risk of severe wx today mainly for the eastern
half of the area.  Supercells will be possible during the afternoon
with hail... wind... and a few tornadoes.  Models develop pops and
qpf like crazy over the next several days... especially Thursday and
Friday.

Temps will be in the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front
moves through late Wednesday. E/NE wind will keep it cooler on
Thursday with highs in the 70s.  Warmer temps return to the 80s on
Thursday and continue that way into early next week.  Lows in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon MDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

84/72

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064
FXUS64 KMAF 190855
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
355 AM CDT Tue May 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern remains active with a train of upper lows continuing
this week.  This morning an upper low was centered over the
Intermountain West with SW flow reaching across the area.  The first
low will move off to the east as another trough develops along the
CA coast.  This will develop into a closed low before rolling east
later in the week.  The result of this will be a continuation of the
wet pattern for the area.

Evening storms with severe wx and flash flooding lingered into the
early morning hours before moving east.  West TX Mesonet at
Coyanosa reported 4.15 inches and St.Lawrence reported 1.54
inches... most of that falling in 1 hr.  An Areal Flood Warning will
remain in effect all night due to the heavy rain near Coyanosa that
resulted in several feet of water over the road.  A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect through midday generally along and north of
the Pecos River.  Surface dewpts into the 60s... even as far west as
CNM... and model soundings show PW over 1.3 inches indicate the
potential for heavy rain will continue through the morning.  Most of
the additional rain today should be northeast of Pecos county but
since flooding is ongoing will add them to the FFA.

More storms expected today and have the potential for flash flooding
and severe wx.  The best chance of rain today will be over the
NE Permian Basin and carrying likely pops.  Most models seem to be in
some agreement as to developing additional storms to the west of the
area overnight and moving it across the region early in the day.  As
of 08z have begun to get some new development across Eddy and Chavez
counties.  Flooding will be the main concern through midday with
severe wx in the afternoon.  Looking at the development of a dryline
this afternoon which could become the focus for storm development.
There is a slight risk of severe wx today mainly for the eastern
half of the area.  Supercells will be possible during the afternoon
with hail... wind... and a few tornadoes.  Models develop pops and
qpf like crazy over the next several days... especially Thursday and
Friday.

Temps will be in the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front
moves through late Wednesday. E/NE wind will keep it cooler on
Thursday with highs in the 70s.  Warmer temps return to the 80s on
Thursday and continue that way into early next week.  Lows in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  64  85  60  /  50  20  20  30
BIG SPRING TX              83  67  84  61  /  60  30  40  40
CARLSBAD NM                87  54  87  58  /  20  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  92  69  89  69  /  20  20  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  66  88  64  /  30  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          82  55  84  57  /  10  10  10  20
HOBBS NM                   84  59  82  57  /  40  20  20  30
MARFA TX                   85  48  85  55  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  66  85  61  /  50  20  30  30
ODESSA TX                  86  66  86  62  /  50  20  20  30
WINK TX                    89  63  91  64  /  30  20  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until Noon MDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

84/72

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040
FXUS64 KMAF 190549
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1249 AM CDT Tue May 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms continue tonight, and while the bulk of
activity has shifted east of area terminals, high-resolution
guidance indicates the potential for additional development across
SE NM late tonight which would move east across northern portions
of the area, impacting KPEQ, KINK, and KMAF toward daybreak. Have
included TEMPOs to account for associated SHRA/TSRA, and will
continue to monitor tonight. Other concern is for low-end MVFR/IFR
fog and low ceiling development late tonight lasting through
early Tuesday morning. Any low ceilings that develop should
gradually improve to VFR by late Tuesday morning. Otherwise,
breezy southerly to southeasterly winds will continue through the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 PM CDT Mon May 18 2015/

UPDATE...

Have updated the forecast to drop mention of the severe
thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...

Convection has waned a bit over the Permian Basin but
redevelopment is expected as warm upglide gins up further storms.
With all the outflow boundaries around, it`s hard to say where,
but the southern portions of the Basin stand to get the best shot
of precip overnight. Heavy rainfall is still indicated, and a
flash flood watch remains in effect until Tuesday afternoon for
the upper Trans Pecos, Permian Basin, and western Low Rolling
Plains portions of west Texas, and all of southeastern New Mexico.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

84/72

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945
FXUS64 KMAF 190338 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1038 PM CDT Mon May 18 2015

.UPDATE...

Have updated the forecast to drop mention of the severe
thunderstorm watch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection has waned a bit over the Permian Basin but
redevelopment is expected as warm upglide gins up further storms.
With all the outflow boundaries around, it`s hard to say where,
but the southern portions of the Basin stand to get the best shot
of precip overnight. Heavy rainfall is still indicated, and a
flash flood watch remains in effect until Tuesday afternoon for
the upper Trans Pecos, Permian Basin, and western Low Rolling
Plains portions of west Texas, and all of southeastern New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  85  64  85  /  80  50  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              67  83  68  84  /  70  60  30  40
CARLSBAD NM                60  87  55  87  /  70  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  70  89  70  89  /  40  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  88  65  88  /  40  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  82  56  84  /  50  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   62  83  59  82  /  80  40  20  10
MARFA TX                   57  85  51  85  /  30  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  85  67  85  /  70  50  20  30
ODESSA TX                  67  86  67  86  /  70  40  20  20
WINK TX                    68  89  64  91  /  70  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

70/70

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577
FXUS64 KMAF 182224
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
524 PM CDT Mon May 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Satellite imagery shows a very unstable AMS in place, w/strong
return flow advecting moisture into the region. Area radars show
convection going up along the Pecos River, producing mainly large
hail/+SHRA. This activity is expected to develop east over the
next few hrs, w/all terminals exposed. Forecast soundings develop
a few hrs of LIFR cigs KMAF/KCNM/KHOB/KINK, and MVFR KFST/KPEQ, near sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM, OF PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

THIS AFTERNOON, A GENERALLY SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS INCREASING MOISTURE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH DEWPOINTS EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES PUSHING
THROUGH THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN. COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND COOLING ALOFT, CAPE
VALUES ARE EXCEEDING 3000 THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY
IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATE SHEAR OF
40 KNOTS, DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE. LFC LEVELS LESS THAN 2000M
SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.

AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST,
LOOKING FOR MERGING OF CELLS INTO A LARGER-SCALE COMPLEX AIDED BY
DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL SUSTAIN INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED
OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, HEAVY AND
POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EXIT EASTERN
PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN BY MID-DAY TUESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS AND
THE PERMIAN BASIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY.

AS DRIER AIR MIXES EAST TUESDAY, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND MODERATE SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE, THOUGH DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
INHIBITED IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND MCS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BRINGING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MOSTLY TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. A MOIST RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FUEL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

44

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621
FXUS64 KMAF 181947 CCA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
247 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM, OF PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

THIS AFTERNOON, A GENERALLY SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS INCREASING MOISTURE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH DEWPOINTS EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES PUSHING
THROUGH THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN. COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND COOLING ALOFT, CAPE
VALUES ARE EXCEEDING 3000 THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY
IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATE SHEAR OF
40 KNOTS, DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE. LFC LEVELS LESS THAN 2000M
SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.

AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST,
LOOKING FOR MERGING OF CELLS INTO A LARGER-SCALE COMPLEX AIDED BY
DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL SUSTAIN INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED
OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, HEAVY AND
POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EXIT EASTERN
PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN BY MID-DAY TUESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS AND
THE PERMIAN BASIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY.

AS DRIER AIR MIXES EAST TUESDAY, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND MODERATE SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE, THOUGH DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
INHIBITED IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND MCS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BRINGING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MOSTLY TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. A MOIST RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FUEL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  85  64  85  /  80  50  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              67  83  68  84  /  70  60  30  40
CARLSBAD NM                60  87  55  87  /  70  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  70  89  70  89  /  40  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  88  65  88  /  40  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  82  56  84  /  50  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   62  83  59  82  /  80  40  20  10
MARFA TX                   57  85  51  85  /  30  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  85  67  85  /  70  50  20  30
ODESSA TX                  67  86  67  86  /  70  40  20  20
WINK TX                    68  89  64  91  /  70  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...NORTHERN
     LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...DAWSON...ECTOR...
     GAINES...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
     MITCHELL...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...
     SCURRY...UPTON...WARD...WINKLER.

&&

$$

05

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606
FXUS64 KMAF 181946 CCA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM, OF PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

THIS AFTERNOON, A GENERALLY SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS INCREASING MOISTURE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH DEWPOINTS EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES PUSHING
THROUGH THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN. COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND COOLING ALOFT, CAPE
VALUES ARE EXCEEDING 3000 THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING AND
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY
IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATE SHEAR OF
40 KNOTS, DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE. LFC LEVELS LESS THAN 2000M
SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.

AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST,
LOOKING FOR MERGING OF CELLS INTO A LARGER-SCALE COMPLEX AIDED BY
DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL SUSTAIN INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED
OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, HEAVY AND
POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EXIT EASTERN
PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN BY MID-DAY TUESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS AND
THE PERMIAN BASIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY.

AS DRIER AIR MIXES EAST TUESDAY, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND MODERATE SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE, THOUGH DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
INHIBITED IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND MCS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BRINGING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MOSTLY TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. A MOIST RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FUEL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  85  64  85  /  80  50  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              67  83  68  84  /  70  60  30  40
CARLSBAD NM                60  87  55  87  /  70  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  70  89  70  89  /  40  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  88  65  88  /  40  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  82  56  84  /  50  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   62  83  59  82  /  80  40  20  10
MARFA TX                   57  85  51  85  /  30  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  85  67  85  /  70  50  20  30
ODESSA TX                  67  86  67  86  /  70  40  20  20
WINK TX                    68  89  64  91  /  70  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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501
FXUS64 KMAF 181939
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
239 PM CDT Mon May 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
An active weather pattern is expected to continue through the
Memorial Day weekend as a series of upper level disturbances move
across the area.

In the short term, of primary concern will be the potential for
excessive rainfall and severe weather across parts of southeast
New Mexico and southwest Texas.

This afternoon, a generally southeast flow was increasing moisture
east of the mountains with dewpoints exceeding 60 degrees pushing
through the Pecos River valley and into the southern Permian
Basin. Combined with abundant insolation and cooling aloft, CAPE
values are exceeding 3000 this afternoon. Daytime heating and
upslope flow will bring initial convective development primarily
in the Davis Mountains area this afternoon. With moderate shear of
40 knots, development of supercells capable of producing large
hail and damaging wind is possible. LFC levels less than 2000m
suggest that isolated tornadic development also possible late this
afternoon and early evening mainly west of the Pecos River.

As storms move off the higher terrain toward the northeast,
looking for merging of cells into a larger-scale complex aided by
development of a southeasterly low level jet this evening which
will sustain instability across the area. Hail and damaging winds
will remain possible as the system moves into the Permian Basin. A
secondary wave of thunderstorms is expected as a shortwave trough
approaches the area late tonight. With precipitable water progged
over 1.5 inches across much of the Permian Basin, heavy and
potentially excessive rainfall is possible mainly over the central
to northern Permian Basin. Precipitation is expected exit eastern
parts of the Permian Basin by mid-day Tuesday. A flash flood watch
will be issued for southeast New Mexico, the upper trans-Pecos and
the Permian Basin for this afternoon through mid-day Tuesday.

As drier air mixes east Tuesday, the dryline is expected to set up
near the Texas/New Mexico border Tuesday afternoon. Unstable
conditions and moderate shear suggest the potential for severe
weather along and east of the dryline, though development may be
inhibited in the wake of departing shortwave and MCS.

A cold front will push into the area Wednesday, bringing chances
for thunderstorms again mostly to eastern parts of the forecast
area, where instability will be greatest. A moist return flow
ahead of the next system will fuel development of showers and
thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 85  65  82  63  /  30  70  50  30
BIG SPRING TX              87  67  80  67  /  20  60  60  30
CARLSBAD NM                86  62  86  56  /  30  60  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  89  70  90  70  /  30  40  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  68  87  64  /  30  40  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  59  79  56  /  20  50  10  10
HOBBS NM                   83  63  81  62  /  30  70  40  20
MARFA TX                   83  54  85  49  /  20  30  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    87  67  82  65  /  20  60  50  30
ODESSA TX                  87  67  83  65  /  30  60  50  30
WINK TX                    88  68  87  66  /  30  60  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/05

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461
FXUS64 KMAF 181810
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
110 PM CDT Mon May 18 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is TSRA affecting
all terminals at some point this afternoon and/or tonight. Currently
have SE winds becoming more established and expect gusts to increase
over the next couple of hours. Difficult aviation forecast today,
particularly with trying to pinpoint timing and location of TSRA
development. Think convection will be more scattered in nature
through late evening then become more numerous overnight. As a
result, will continue TEMPO TSRA through this evening then
prevailing TSRA at most sites through early Tuesday morning. Could
see some brief periods of MVFR cigs/vis and gusts up to 40kt with
any thunderstorm. Otherwise, will continue to monitor trends and
make amendments if/when needed. Have MVFR cigs at MAF and HOB
Tuesday morning but conditions should improve by late morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT Mon May 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Satellite and observations are showing low clouds and dewpoints in
the upper 60s in the lower Trans Pecos beginning to surge
northwestward into the Permian Basin this morning. This moisture
will push up against the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains this
afternoon where daytime heating and an appropriately timed weak
upper trough will initiate convection. CAPE and shear will be more
than enough to support severe convection and SPC has almost the
entire area outlooked in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms
with large hail the main threat...but strong winds, and even
isolated tornadoes will also be possible.

Tuesday will see another round of convection with increasing
southwesterly flow ahead of an upper low over the Four Corners
developing a dryline over the western Permian Basin. Instability
will not be as high as today but again it should be enough to
support severe thunderstorms and once again the Permian Basin is
outlooked by SPC with a slight risk.

Things change a bit Wednesday with the approach of a weak cold
front. How far south the front pushes during the day on Wednesday
will affect thunderstorm potential...an earlier arrival will
bring cooler air in quicker and limit instability while a later
arrival will allow for better daytime heating and more
instability. The NAM is fastest with the timing of the front...and
is normally preferred in these situations due to its higher low
level resolution with the other models having a slower passage
after sunset. Despite this will go with model consensus and not
bring the front through Midland before peak heating at this time
but will have it entering the northeastern Basin with a good
temperature gradient from northeast to southwest. The front will
definitely be through by Thursday and cloudy skies and overrunning
precipitation will combine with the weak cold air advection to
drop temperatures well below normal.

Friday skies begin to clear out and afternoon heating will again
cause instability and keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast
through the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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808
FXUS64 KMAF 181117
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 AM CDT Mon May 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gulf moisture will continue to push northwestward this morning on
increasing southeast winds. Expecting TEMPO MVFR conditions at KMAF,
KINK, and KHOB through 16z as occasional Gulf stratus tracks across
those terminals. A strong upper level disturbance will bring a good
chance of thunderstorms to a majority of the terminals by late
this afternoon through tonight. Included a TEMPO group for MVFR/VFR
conditions in thunderstorms at most terminals in the 20z- 24z timeframe
this afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
tonight at most terminals and have included a PREVAILING group for
this activity beginning at 00z Tuesday at KMAF, KINK, and KHOB,
with TEMPO groups at KCNM, KPEQ, and PROB30 groups at KFST. Expect
southeast winds to increase to 15 to 25 mph and gusty by mid
morning and continue through this afternoon and tonight.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT Mon May 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Satellite and observations are showing low clouds and dewpoints in
the upper 60s in the lower Trans Pecos beginning to surge
northwestward into the Permian Basin this morning. This moisture
will push up against the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains this
afternoon where daytime heating and an appropriately timed weak
upper trough will initiate convection. CAPE and shear will be more
than enough to support severe convection and SPC has almost the
entire area outlooked in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms
with large hail the main threat...but strong winds, and even
isolated tornadoes will also be possible.

Tuesday will see another round of convection with increasing
southwesterly flow ahead of an upper low over the Four Corners
developing a dryline over the western Permian Basin. Instability
will not be as high as today but again it should be enough to
support severe thunderstorms and once again the Permian Basin is
outlooked by SPC with a slight risk.

Things change a bit Wednesday with the approach of a weak cold
front. How far south the front pushes during the day on Wednesday
will affect thunderstorm potential...an earlier arrival will
bring cooler air in quicker and limit instability while a later
arrival will allow for better daytime heating and more
instability. The NAM is fastest with the timing of the front...and
is normally preferred in these situations due to its higher low
level resolution with the other models having a slower passage
after sunset. Despite this will go with model consensus and not
bring the front through Midland before peak heating at this time
but will have it entering the northeastern Basin with a good
temperature gradient from northeast to southwest. The front will
definitely be through by Thursday and cloudy skies and overrunning
precipitation will combine with the weak cold air advection to
drop temperatures well below normal.

Friday skies begin to clear out and afternoon heating will again
cause instability and keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast
through the weekend.

Hennig

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 85  65  82  63  /  30  70  50  30
BIG SPRING TX              87  67  80  67  /  20  60  60  30
CARLSBAD NM                86  62  86  56  /  30  60  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  89  70  90  70  /  30  40  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  68  87  64  /  30  40  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  59  79  56  /  20  50  10  10
HOBBS NM                   83  63  81  62  /  30  70  40  20
MARFA TX                   83  54  85  49  /  20  30  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    87  67  82  65  /  20  60  50  30
ODESSA TX                  87  67  83  65  /  30  60  50  30
WINK TX                    88  68  87  66  /  30  60  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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729
FXUS64 KMAF 180906
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
406 AM CDT Mon May 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite and observations are showing low clouds and dewpoints in
the upper 60s in the lower Trans Pecos beginning to surge
northwestward into the Permian Basin this morning. This moisture
will push up against the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains this
afternoon where daytime heating and an appropriately timed weak
upper trough will initiate convection. CAPE and shear will be more
than enough to support severe convection and SPC has almost the
entire area outlooked in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms
with large hail the main threat...but strong winds, and even
isolated tornadoes will also be possible.

Tuesday will see another round of convection with increasing
southwesterly flow ahead of an upper low over the Four Corners
developing a dryline over the western Permian Basin. Instability
will not be as high as today but again it should be enough to
support severe thunderstorms and once again the Permian Basin is
outlooked by SPC with a slight risk.

Things change a bit Wednesday with the approach of a weak cold
front. How far south the front pushes during the day on Wednesday
will affect thunderstorm potential...an earlier arrival will
bring cooler air in quicker and limit instability while a later
arrival will allow for better daytime heating and more
instability. The NAM is fastest with the timing of the front...and
is normally preferred in these situations due to its higher low
level resolution with the other models having a slower passage
after sunset. Despite this will go with model consensus and not
bring the front through Midland before peak heating at this time
but will have it entering the northeastern Basin with a good
temperature gradient from northeast to southwest. The front will
definitely be through by Thursday and cloudy skies and overrunning
precipitation will combine with the weak cold air advection to
drop temperatures well below normal.

Friday skies begin to clear out and afternoon heating will again
cause instability and keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast
through the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 85  65  82  63  /  30  70  50  30
BIG SPRING TX              87  67  80  67  /  20  60  60  30
CARLSBAD NM                86  62  86  56  /  30  60  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  89  70  90  70  /  30  40  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  68  87  64  /  30  40  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  59  79  56  /  20  50  10  10
HOBBS NM                   83  63  81  62  /  30  70  40  20
MARFA TX                   83  54  85  49  /  20  30  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    87  67  82  65  /  20  60  50  30
ODESSA TX                  87  67  83  65  /  30  60  50  30
WINK TX                    88  68  87  66  /  30  60  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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812
FXUS64 KMAF 180522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Mon May 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gulf moisture will continue to increase overnight on light southeast
winds. Expecting Gulf stratus with IFR ceilings at KMAF at around
10z and continue through 17z. At KINK, expecting MVFR ceilings by
15z through 19z. Confidence was not high enough at this time to
include restricted flight conditions elsewhere but this will need
to be monitored with the latest guidance and trends. An upper
level disturbance will bring a chance of thunderstorms to a majority
of the terminals Monday afternoon and evening and have included a
PROB30 group for that possibility. Southeast winds are expected to
increase to 15 to 25 mph and gusty by Monday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CDT Sun May 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Latest models back winds slightly after sunset, increasing PBL
moisture on return flow. 18Z NAM buffer soundings still developing
a few hours of LIFR cigs at KMAF, and MVFR at KFST. Otherwise,
forecast soundings reach widespread convective temps 16-19Z,
w/bases 4-9 kft agl. Best chances for convection look to be Texas
terminals late in the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT Sun May 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Convective potential will remain limited today/tonight, however by
Mon AM low level moisture return will be ongoing in earnest, per a
low level jet with deepening sely flow thru the day Monday.
Meanwhile a plume of much steeper mid level LRs will overspread much
of CWFA. This along with strong SB heating will result in large CAPE
and the risk of severe storms, especially large hail, a brief
tornado can`t be ruled out either. Looking closely at surface
temps/dwpnts their respective maxima will be nearly co-located
INVOF Pecos River Valley. It does make some sense that storms will
initiate near/just ne of the Davis Mtns and then strengthen as
they move newd into said warm/moist low level airmass. NAM12 is
quite aggressive with instability, possibly around/over 3000 J/KG
within the TX portion of Pecos River Valley. This with deep layer
shear of 40-45kts will make for a most favorable environment for
severe storms across the wrn PB by late afternoon and Lea/ern
Eddy Co NM/nw PB by early evening. We will ramp up severe wording
in our products for Monday. More of the same Tue, but the dryline
will be better developed with rich dwpnt air still along and e of
dryline, dwpnts low to mid 60s with evidence of a weak boundary in
MSLP data. There is some concern that convection in the morning
across the nrn PB could limit afternoon convection Tue? By Wed
severe wx concerns will still exist with NAM12 indicating that a
frontal boundary may be draped nw-se across the S Plains/nrn PB. A
theta-e ridge at surface will be INVOF highway 349 and ewd. Attm
it is difficult to confidently say where/if tstms will develop as
previous days/nights precip will modulate features and timing. For
what its worth, Thur frontal boundary would likely be farther s,
even near I-10, and with sw flow aloft and with mstr still in
place behind front more rain would be possible, including Fri.
Indications are that the mid level trof will finally move enough
ewd to restrict rain potential to the far e CWFA Sat/Sun.
Temperatures stay more or less normal to below normal thru the
forecast with some of the days modulated by precip and of course
the front mid week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12

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053
FXUS64 KMAF 172218
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
518 PM CDT Sun May 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Latest models back winds slightly after sunset, increasing PBL
moisture on return flow. 18Z NAM buffer soundings still developing
a few hours of LIFR cigs at KMAF, and MVFR at KFST. Otherwise,
forecast soundings reach widespread convective temps 16-19Z,
w/bases 4-9 kft agl. Best chances for convection look to be Texas
terminals late in the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT Sun May 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Convective potential will remain limited today/tonight, however by
Mon AM low level moisture return will be ongoing in earnest, per a
low level jet with deepening sely flow thru the day Monday.
Meanwhile a plume of much steeper mid level LRs will overspread much
of CWFA. This along with strong SB heating will result in large CAPE
and the risk of severe storms, especially large hail, a brief
tornado can`t be ruled out either. Looking closely at surface
temps/dwpnts their respective maxima will be nearly co-located
INVOF Pecos River Valley. It does make some sense that storms will
initiate near/just ne of the Davis Mtns and then strengthen as
they move newd into said warm/moist low level airmass. NAM12 is
quite aggressive with instability, possibly around/over 3000 J/KG
within the TX portion of Pecos River Valley. This with deep layer
shear of 40-45kts will make for a most favorable environment for
severe storms across the wrn PB by late afternoon and Lea/ern
Eddy Co NM/nw PB by early evening. We will ramp up severe wording
in our products for Monday. More of the same Tue, but the dryline
will be better developed with rich dwpnt air still along and e of
dryline, dwpnts low to mid 60s with evidence of a weak boundary in
MSLP data. There is some concern that convection in the morning
across the nrn PB could limit afternoon convection Tue? By Wed
severe wx concerns will still exist with NAM12 indicating that a
frontal boundary may be draped nw-se across the S Plains/nrn PB. A
theta-e ridge at surface will be INVOF highway 349 and ewd. Attm
it is difficult to confidently say where/if tstms will develop as
previous days/nights precip will modulate features and timing. For
what its worth, Thur frontal boundary would likely be farther s,
even near I-10, and with sw flow aloft and with mstr still in
place behind front more rain would be possible, including Fri.
Indications are that the mid level trof will finally move enough
ewd to restrict rain potential to the far e CWFA Sat/Sun.
Temperatures stay more or less normal to below normal thru the
forecast with some of the days modulated by precip and of course
the front mid week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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001
FXUS64 KMAF 171904
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
204 PM CDT Sun May 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Convective potential will remain limited today/tonight, however by
Mon AM low level moisture return will be ongoing in earnest, per a
low level jet with deepening sely flow thru the day Monday.
Meanwhile a plume of much steeper mid level LRs will overspread much
of CWFA. This along with strong SB heating will result in large CAPE
and the risk of severe storms, especially large hail, a brief
tornado can`t be ruled out either. Looking closely at surface
temps/dwpnts their respective maxima will be nearly co-located
INVOF Pecos River Valley. It does make some sense that storms will
initiate near/just ne of the Davis Mtns and then strengthen as
they move newd into said warm/moist low level airmass. NAM12 is
quite aggressive with instability, possibly around/over 3000 J/KG
within the TX portion of Pecos River Valley. This with deep layer
shear of 40-45kts will make for a most favorable environment for
severe storms across the wrn PB by late afternoon and Lea/ern
Eddy Co NM/nw PB by early evening. We will ramp up severe wording
in our products for Monday. More of the same Tue, but the dryline
will be better developed with rich dwpnt air still along and e of
dryline, dwpnts low to mid 60s with evidence of a weak boundary in
MSLP data. There is some concern that convection in the morning
across the nrn PB could limit afternoon convection Tue? By Wed
severe wx concerns will still exist with NAM12 indicating that a
frontal boundary may be draped nw-se across the S Plains/nrn PB. A
theta-e ridge at surface will be INVOF highway 349 and ewd. Attm
it is difficult to confidently say where/if tstms will develop as
previous days/nights precip will modulate features and timing. For
what its worth, Thur frontal boundary would likely be farther s,
even near I-10, and with sw flow aloft and with mstr still in
place behind front more rain would be possible, including Fri.
Indications are that the mid level trof will finally move enough
ewd to restrict rain potential to the far e CWFA Sat/Sun.
Temperatures stay more or less normal to below normal thru the
forecast with some of the days modulated by precip and of course
the front mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  86  65  82  /   0  40  60  40
BIG SPRING TX              63  88  68  80  /   0  30  60  60
CARLSBAD NM                54  88  61  88  /   0  30  50  10
DRYDEN TX                  70  90  70  90  /  10  30  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  89  68  88  /   0  40  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  80  58  80  /   0  20  40  10
HOBBS NM                   55  86  62  81  /   0  30  60  30
MARFA TX                   50  85  54  86  /   0  20  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  88  67  84  /   0  40  50  40
ODESSA TX                  62  87  67  82  /   0  40  50  40
WINK TX                    62  90  69  88  /   0  40  50  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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949
FXUS64 KMAF 171709
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1209 PM CDT Sun May 17 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting MAF and maybe even FST Monday morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at all terminals through tonight. Currently
have light and variable winds across the region with some mid and
high clouds increasing from the west. Expect winds to become more
established around 10-15kt from the SW this afternoon then diminish
after sunset. Moisture will come surging in from the SE, resulting
in at least MVFR cigs (potentially IFR cat) at MAF by sunrise
Monday. Could see low cigs at FST as well however confidence is too
low attm to include mention in this TAF cycle.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT Sun May 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper air pattern this year certainly has a different look to
it than that seen in recent years. Previous years have had an
upper ridge over the western U.S. bringing hot temperatures and
dry air to west Texas and eastern New Mexico but so far this year
we have had a persistent trough, keeping upper level flow
southwesterly and providing a continued chance for rain and
near normal temperatures.

This scenario will play out the next seven days as one upper low
after another moves into the Great Basin providing rain chances
all week. Today will be the lone exception as a departing upper
low pushes convection east of the CWA, however another low
develops to our west pulling moisture back against the mountains
giving us a chance for rain the remainder of the week. It will be
difficult providing too much detail on where and when rain will
fall since it will depend on the location and timing of the
surface dryline and passing upper level troughs...features models
are notoriously poor at handling very far in advance. Therefore
the forecast is somewhat generic with PoPs generally lower out
west and higher in the east where moisture is more likely to be
found. Instability and shear will be enough that any storms that
form could become severe as noted in the Day2 and Day3 outlooks
from SPC which show most of the area in a marginal or slight risk.
Flash flooding will also be possible with precipitable water
values at least one standard deviation above normal.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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624
FXUS64 KMAF 171114
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
614 AM CDT Sun May 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. Thunderstorms are expected to remain
east of all the terminals through the TAF period with a few mid clouds
and increasing high clouds. Winds should remain light through late
morning and then become southwest at generally 10 to 15 mph and gusty
this afternoon. There is some chance that MVFR conditions may
develop toward the end of the TAF period at some of the terminals.
Later shifts will monitor.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT Sun May 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper air pattern this year certainly has a different look to
it than that seen in recent years. Previous years have had an
upper ridge over the western U.S. bringing hot temperatures and
dry air to west Texas and eastern New Mexico but so far this year
we have had a persistent trough, keeping upper level flow
southwesterly and providing a continued chance for rain and
near normal temperatures.

This scenario will play out the next seven days as one upper low
after another moves into the Great Basin providing rain chances
all week. Today will be the lone exception as a departing upper
low pushes convection east of the CWA, however another low
develops to our west pulling moisture back against the mountains
giving us a chance for rain the remainder of the week. It will be
difficult providing too much detail on where and when rain will
fall since it will depend on the location and timing of the
surface dryline and passing upper level troughs...features models
are notoriously poor at handling very far in advance. Therefore
the forecast is somewhat generic with PoPs generally lower out
west and higher in the east where moisture is more likely to be
found. Instability and shear will be enough that any storms that
form could become severe as noted in the Day2 and Day3 outlooks
from SPC which show most of the area in a marginal or slight risk.
Flash flooding will also be possible with precipitable water
values at least one standard deviation above normal.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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956
FXUS64 KMAF 170902
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
402 AM CDT Sun May 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper air pattern this year certainly has a different look to
it than that seen in recent years. Previous years have had an
upper ridge over the western U.S. bringing hot temperatures and
dry air to west Texas and eastern New Mexico but so far this year
we have had a persistent trough, keeping upper level flow
southwesterly and providing a continued chance for rain and
near normal temperatures.

This scenario will play out the next seven days as one upper low
after another moves into the Great Basin providing rain chances
all week. Today will be the lone exception as a departing upper
low pushes convection east of the CWA, however another low
develops to our west pulling moisture back against the mountains
giving us a chance for rain the remainder of the week. It will be
difficult providing too much detail on where and when rain will
fall since it will depend on the location and timing of the
surface dryline and passing upper level troughs...features models
are notoriously poor at handling very far in advance. Therefore
the forecast is somewhat generic with PoPs generally lower out
west and higher in the east where moisture is more likely to be
found. Instability and shear will be enough that any storms that
form could become severe as noted in the Day2 and Day3 outlooks
from SPC which show most of the area in a marginal or slight risk.
Flash flooding will also be possible with precipitable water
values at least one standard deviation above normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 82  60  87  64  /   0  10  20  60
BIG SPRING TX              86  63  86  66  /   0  10  20  60
CARLSBAD NM                83  54  88  62  /   0  10  20  50
DRYDEN TX                  88  69  87  69  /  10  20  20  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  63  89  67  /   0  10  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  57  79  59  /   0   0  20  40
HOBBS NM                   80  55  87  62  /   0  10  20  60
MARFA TX                   79  48  83  54  /   0  10  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  62  88  66  /   0  10  20  50
ODESSA TX                  84  63  88  66  /   0  10  20  50
WINK TX                    85  60  89  68  /   0  10  20  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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870
FXUS64 KMAF 170452
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. Thunderstorms are expected to
remain east of all the terminals through the TAF period with a
few mid clouds and increasing high clouds. Winds should become
light by 07z through late Sunday morning. Expecting winds to
become mainly southwest at 10 to 15 mph and gusty Sunday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Update to remove NPW headline for GDP Mtns. Main concern is back
building storms across the Lower Trans Pecos next few hrs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

UPDATE...
Wind advisory has expired.

DISCUSSION...
Even though winds are still gusty, we have issued an update to the
products to let wind advisory expire. Winds across the area will
continue to decrease, except GDP Mtns where warning is still in
effect until 03Z.

Dryline is along a line from near Snyder to Big Lake to Dryden. Mostly
non severe storms are expected in these areas through mid evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Gusty and
elevated westerly winds will subside over the next couple of hours.
Winds will become light and variable but will mostly be out of the
west.  Winds will strengthen slightly and come around to the
southwest Sunday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
West Texas and southeast New Mexico can expect an active weather
pattern to continue through the coming week as a long wave trough
remains over the southwest and upper level disturbances rotate
around the trough and across the area.

This afternoon, the dryline/trough has pushed eastward to near a
line from Lamesa to west of Sanderson. East of the dryline,
surface-based CAPE values exceeded 3000. A few thunderstorms have
tried to develop in southwest Texas near the dryline, though
strong shear and dry air entrainment has inhibited significant
development. May see an isolated thunderstorm yet late afternoon
into early evening along and east of the dryline, mainly across
the lower trans-Pecos aided by stronger surface convergence and
deeper moisture. With strong instability and significant shear,
any storms that do develop could become strong to severe with
large hail and damaging winds.

West to southwest winds have picked up significantly in response
to the surface pressure gradient and a swift mid-level flow
associated with passage of upper trough. High wind warning
verifying at GDP last couple of hours. Having a bit more trouble
achieving wind advisory criteria at the lower elevations. Would
still expect winds of 30 mph or greater over parts of southeast
New Mexico and mainly the higher elevations of southwest Texas
with isolated stronger winds elsewhere. No changes to current High
Wind Warning or Wind Advisory are planned.

Drier air pushing into the area overnight accompanied by clearing
skies will result in overnight lows 5 to 10 degrees below normal,
closer to ECMWF guidance.

A warm day is in store Sunday under the influence of abundant
sunshine, though a return flow of moisture will begin Sunday
night. Thunderstorm chances will begin to increase on Monday as
the next upper level trough approaches and the moisture return
flow increases. Surface trough near the mountains Monday may
serve as a focus for thunderstorm development Monday and Monday
evening. A cold front pushing through the Panhandle may also come
into play on Monday. The GFS/ECMWF/CMC seem to be somewhat similar,
showing the front pushing into the Permian Basin, providing for an
additional focus and isentropic lift over the cooler air. In
contrast, the NAM model hangs the front somewhat further north,
making it a lesser player in precipitation chances. Appears
prudent to go with the more aggressive blend, suggesting higher
rain chances and QPFs. This situation may need to be monitored for
the possibility of excessive rainfall.

Tuesday through Friday, little change in the weather pattern is
depicted with a surface trough near the Texas/New Mexico border or
mountain areas and a trough aloft over the southwest, with
occasional shortwaves enhancing lift. A quasi-stationary boundary
may also remain in the area through mid-week. Precipitation
chances will continue through the coming week with a few
opportunities for significant rainfall.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05

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743
FXUS64 KMAF 170332 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1032 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Update to remove NPW headline for GDP Mtns. Main concern is back
building storms across the Lower Trans Pecos next few hrs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

UPDATE...
Wind advisory has expired.

DISCUSSION...
Even though winds are still gusty, we have issued an update to the
products to let wind advisory expire. Winds across the area will
continue to decrease, except GDP Mtns where warning is still in
effect until 03Z.

Dryline is along a line from near Snyder to Big Lake to Dryden. Mostly
non severe storms are expected in these areas thru mid evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Gusty and
elevated westerly winds will subside over the next couple of hours.
Winds will become light and variable but will mostly be out of the
west.  Winds will strengthen slightly and come around to the
southwest Sunday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
West Texas and southeast New Mexico can expect an active weather
pattern to continue through the coming week as a long wave trough
remains over the southwest and upper level disturbances rotate
around the trough and across the area.

This afternoon, the dryline/trough has pushed eastward to near a
line from Lamesa to west of Sanderson. East of the dryline,
surface-based CAPE values exceeded 3000. A few thunderstorms have
tried to develop in southwest Texas near the dryline, though
strong shear and dry air entrainment has inhibited significant
development. May see an isolated thunderstorm yet late afternoon
into early evening along and east of the dryline, mainly across
the lower trans-Pecos aided by stronger surface convergence and
deeper moisture. With strong instability and significant shear,
any storms that do develop could become strong to severe with
large hail and damaging winds.

West to southwest winds have picked up significantly in response
to the surface pressure gradient and a swift mid-level flow
associated with passage of upper trough. High wind warning
verifying at GDP last couple of hours. Having a bit more trouble
achieving wind advisory criteria at the lower elevations. Would
still expect winds of 30 mph or greater over parts of southeast
New Mexico and mainly the higher elevations of southwest Texas
with isolated stronger winds elsewhere. No changes to current High
Wind Warning or Wind Advisory are planned.

Drier air pushing into the area overnight accompanied by clearing
skies will result in overnight lows 5 to 10 degrees below normal,
closer to ECMWF guidance.

A warm day is in store Sunday under the influence of abundant
sunshine, though a return flow of moisture will begin Sunday
night. Thunderstorm chances will begin to increase on Monday as
the next upper level trough approaches and the moisture return
flow increases. Surface trough near the mountains Monday may
serve as a focus for thunderstorm development Monday and Monday
evening. A cold front pushing through the Panhandle may also come
into play on Monday. The GFS/ECMWF/CMC seem to be somewhat similar,
showing the front pushing into the Permian Basin, providing for an
additional focus and isentropic lift over the cooler air. In
contrast, the NAM model hangs the front somewhat further north,
making it a lesser player in precipitation chances. Appears
prudent to go with the more aggressive blend, suggesting higher
rain chances and QPFs. This situation may need to be monitored for
the possibility of excessive rainfall.

Tuesday through Friday, little change in the weather pattern is
depicted with a surface trough near the Texas/New Mexico border or
mountain areas and a trough aloft over the southwest, with
occasional shortwaves enhancing lift. A quasi-stationary boundary
may also remain in the area through mid-week. Precipitation
chances will continue through the coming week with a few
opportunities for significant rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  50  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              94  54  87  62  /  20   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                80  50  83  54  /  10   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  94  60  94  69  /  20  50  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           90  54  89  62  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  50  75  56  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   78  47  79  53  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   82  45  79  50  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    88  53  87  61  /  10   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  87  53  86  62  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    87  54  87  59  /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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841
FXUS64 KMAF 170018 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
718 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015

.UPDATE...
Wind advisory has expired.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Even though winds are still gusty, we have issued an update to the
products to let wind advisory expire. Winds across the area will
continue to decrease, except GDP Mtns where warning is still in
effect until 03Z.

Dryline is along a line from near Snyder to Big Lake to Dryden. Mostly
non severe storms are expected in these areas thru mid evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Gusty and
elevated westerly winds will subside over the next couple of hours.
Winds will become light and variable but will mostly be out of the
west.  Winds will strengthen slightly and come around to the
southwest Sunday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
West Texas and southeast New Mexico can expect an active weather
pattern to continue through the coming week as a long wave trough
remains over the southwest and upper level disturbances rotate
around the trough and across the area.

This afternoon, the dryline/trough has pushed eastward to near a
line from Lamesa to west of Sanderson. East of the dryline,
surface-based CAPE values exceeded 3000. A few thunderstorms have
tried to develop in southwest Texas near the dryline, though
strong shear and dry air entrainment has inhibited significant
development. May see an isolated thunderstorm yet late afternoon
into early evening along and east of the dryline, mainly across
the lower trans-Pecos aided by stronger surface convergence and
deeper moisture. With strong instability and significant shear,
any storms that do develop could become strong to severe with
large hail and damaging winds.

West to southwest winds have picked up significantly in response
to the surface pressure gradient and a swift mid-level flow
associated with passage of upper trough. High wind warning
verifying at GDP last couple of hours. Having a bit more trouble
achieving wind advisory criteria at the lower elevations. Would
still expect winds of 30 mph or greater over parts of southeast
New Mexico and mainly the higher elevations of southwest Texas
with isolated stronger winds elsewhere. No changes to current High
Wind Warning or Wind Advisory are planned.

Drier air pushing into the area overnight accompanied by clearing
skies will result in overnight lows 5 to 10 degrees below normal,
closer to ECMWF guidance.

A warm day is in store Sunday under the influence of abundant
sunshine, though a return flow of moisture will begin Sunday
night. Thunderstorm chances will begin to increase on Monday as
the next upper level trough approaches and the moisture return
flow increases. Surface trough near the mountains Monday may
serve as a focus for thunderstorm development Monday and Monday
evening. A cold front pushing through the Panhandle may also come
into play on Monday. The GFS/ECMWF/CMC seem to be somewhat similar,
showing the front pushing into the Permian Basin, providing for an
additional focus and isentropic lift over the cooler air. In
contrast, the NAM model hangs the front somewhat further north,
making it a lesser player in precipitation chances. Appears
prudent to go with the more aggressive blend, suggesting higher
rain chances and QPFs. This situation may need to be monitored for
the possibility of excessive rainfall.

Tuesday through Friday, little change in the weather pattern is
depicted with a surface trough near the Texas/New Mexico border or
mountain areas and a trough aloft over the southwest, with
occasional shortwaves enhancing lift. A quasi-stationary boundary
may also remain in the area through mid-week. Precipitation
chances will continue through the coming week with a few
opportunities for significant rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  84  58  87  /  10   0  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              54  87  62  89  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                50  83  54  86  /   0  10   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  60  94  69  88  /  30  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  89  62  87  /  10  10  10  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  75  56  84  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                   47  79  53  84  /   0   0   0  20
MARFA TX                   45  79  50  85  /   0   0   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    53  87  61  87  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  53  86  62  87  /  10   0  10  30
WINK TX                    54  87  59  89  /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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218
FXUS64 KMAF 162323
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Gusty and
elevated westerly winds will subside over the next couple of hours.
Winds will become light and variable but will mostly be out of the
west.  Winds will strengthen slightly and come around to the
southwest Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
West Texas and southeast New Mexico can expect an active weather
pattern to continue through the coming week as a long wave trough
remains over the southwest and upper level disturbances rotate
around the trough and across the area.

This afternoon, the dryline/trough has pushed eastward to near a
line from Lamesa to west of Sanderson. East of the dryline,
surface-based CAPE values exceeded 3000. A few thunderstorms have
tried to develop in southwest Texas near the dryline, though
strong shear and dry air entrainment has inhibited significant
development. May see an isolated thunderstorm yet late afternoon
into early evening along and east of the dryline, mainly across
the lower trans-Pecos aided by stronger surface convergence and
deeper moisture. With strong instability and significant shear,
any storms that do develop could become strong to severe with
large hail and damaging winds.

West to southwest winds have picked up significantly in response
to the surface pressure gradient and a swift mid-level flow
associated with passage of upper trough. High wind warning
verifying at GDP last couple of hours. Having a bit more trouble
achieving wind advisory criteria at the lower elevations. Would
still expect winds of 30 mph or greater over parts of southeast
New Mexico and mainly the higher elevations of southwest Texas
with isolated stronger winds elsewhere. No changes to current High
Wind Warning or Wind Advisory are planned.

Drier air pushing into the area overnight accompanied by clearing
skies will result in overnight lows 5 to 10 degrees below normal,
closer to ECMWF guidance.

A warm day is in store Sunday under the influence of abundant
sunshine, though a return flow of moisture will begin Sunday
night. Thunderstorm chances will begin to increase on Monday as
the next upper level trough approaches and the moisture return
flow increases. Surface trough near the mountains Monday may
serve as a focus for thunderstorm development Monday and Monday
evening. A cold front pushing through the Panhandle may also come
into play on Monday. The GFS/ECMWF/CMC seem to be somewhat similar,
showing the front pushing into the Permian Basin, providing for an
additional focus and isentropic lift over the cooler air. In
contrast, the NAM model hangs the front somewhat further north,
making it a lesser player in precipitation chances. Appears
prudent to go with the more aggressive blend, suggesting higher
rain chances and QPFs. This situation may need to be monitored for
the possibility of excessive rainfall.

Tuesday through Friday, little change in the weather pattern is
depicted with a surface trough near the Texas/New Mexico border or
mountain areas and a trough aloft over the southwest, with
occasional shortwaves enhancing lift. A quasi-stationary boundary
may also remain in the area through mid-week. Precipitation
chances will continue through the coming week with a few
opportunities for significant rainfall.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...
     Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99

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474
FXUS64 KMAF 161953
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
253 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
West Texas and southeast New Mexico can expect an active weather
pattern to continue through the coming week as a long wave trough
remains over the southwest and upper level disturbances rotate
around the trough and across the area.

This afternoon, the dryline/trough has pushed eastward to near a
line from Lamesa to west of Sanderson. East of the dryline,
surface-based CAPE values exceeded 3000. A few thunderstorms have
tried to develop in southwest Texas near the dryline, though
strong shear and dry air entrainment has inhibited significant
development. May see an isolated thunderstorm yet late afternoon
into early evening along and east of the dryline, mainly across
the lower trans-Pecos aided by stronger surface convergence and
deeper moisture. With strong instability and significant shear,
any storms that do develop could become strong to severe with
large hail and damaging winds.

West to southwest winds have picked up significantly in response
to the surface pressure gradient and a swift mid-level flow
associated with passage of upper trough. High wind warning
verifying at GDP last couple of hours. Having a bit more trouble
achieving wind advisory criteria at the lower elevations. Would
still expect winds of 30 mph or greater over parts of southeast
New Mexico and mainly the higher elevations of southwest Texas
with isolated stronger winds elsewhere. No changes to current High
Wind Warning or Wind Advisory are planned.

Drier air pushing into the area overnight accompanied by clearing
skies will result in overnight lows 5 to 10 degrees below normal,
closer to ECMWF guidance.

A warm day is in store Sunday under the influence of abundant
sunshine, though a return flow of moisture will begin Sunday
night. Thunderstorm chances will begin to increase on Monday as
the next upper level trough approaches and the moisture return
flow increases. Surface trough near the mountains Monday may
serve as a focus for thunderstorm development Monday and Monday
evening. A cold front pushing through the Panhandle may also come
into play on Monday. The GFS/ECMWF/CMC seem to be somewhat similar,
showing the front pushing into the Permian Basin, providing for an
additional focus and isentropic lift over the cooler air. In
contrast, the NAM model hangs the front somewhat further north,
making it a lesser player in precipitation chances. Appears
prudent to go with the more aggressive blend, suggesting higher
rain chances and QPFs. This situation may need to be monitored for
the possibility of excessive rainfall.

Tuesday through Friday, little change in the weather pattern is
depicted with a surface trough near the Texas/New Mexico border or
mountain areas and a trough aloft over the southwest, with
occasional shortwaves enhancing lift. A quasi-stationary boundary
may also remain in the area through mid-week. Precipitation
chances will continue through the coming week with a few
opportunities for significant rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  50  84  58  /  10  10   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              86  54  87  62  /  20  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                80  50  83  54  /  10   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  60  94  69  /  20  30  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  54  89  62  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  50  75  56  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   78  47  79  53  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   81  45  79  50  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  53  87  61  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  85  53  86  62  /  10  10   0  10
WINK TX                    87  54  87  59  /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...
     Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

05

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885
FXUS64 KMAF 161729
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 PM CDT Sat May 16 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Currently have SW winds increasing
across most areas and expect gusts to continue through early
evening. High winds across the Guadalupe Mountains may result in
pockets of turbulence near this area through this afternoon.
Otherwise, winds will diminish after sunset.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Potent upper level storm system centered near the Four Corners
region will barrel eastward today toward the Central Plains by
this evening. Dryline currently across the eastern slopes of the
mountains will surge eastward today as mid level flow increases
and becomes more westerly. Isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled
out across the extreme eastern Permian Basin today ahead of the
dryline. The bigger concern will be the wind as strong winds are
expected in the Guadalupe Mountains and windy conditions expected
across much of the plains of southeast New Mexico and much of west
Texas. A High Wind Warning continues today for the Guadalupe Mountains
and a Wind Advisory is in effect this afternoon for the southeast
New Mexico Plains and much of west Texas. Weak Pacific cold front
associated with the upper system will move southeast through the
forecast area tonight. Will continue the slight chance to chance
of thunderstorms tonight across the extreme eastern Permian Basin
and lower Trans Pecos where the deeper moisture and low level
convergence will be maximized for the longest period of time
along the front.

In the wake of this system southwesterly flow aloft will return
Sunday. This should allow the dryline to surge again toward the
eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos by late afternoon and
then retreat toward the mountains again Sunday night. Will continue
a slight chance of thunderstorms across the eastern Permian Basin
and lower Trans Pecos near the sloshing dryline Sunday and Sunday
night.

Thunderstorm chances will continue every day next week for most
areas due to an endless series of Pacific storm systems tracking
east across the Rockies and western Plains. These upper level
systems will interact with a moist and unstable airmass across
west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Some of the medium range
guidance is suggesting the possibility of occasional heavy rain
and flash flooding possible.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...
     Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

27

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491
FXUS64 KMAF 161131
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT Sat May 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGs expected for a short time this morning but winds
will shift from the southwest bringing an early end to the low
clouds with VFR conditions the remainder of the TAF period. Windy
conditions expected from noon to sunset with gusts to 30-35kts.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Sat May 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Potent upper level storm system centered near the Four Corners
region will barrel eastward today toward the Central Plains by
this evening. Dryline currently across the eastern slopes of the
mountains will surge eastward today as mid level flow increases
and becomes more westerly. Isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled
out across the extreme eastern Permian Basin today ahead of the
dryline. The bigger concern will be the wind as strong winds are
expected in the Guadalupe Mountains and windy conditions expected
across much of the plains of southeast New Mexico and much of west
Texas. A High Wind Warning continues today for the Guadalupe Mountains
and a Wind Advisory is in effect this afternoon for the southeast
New Mexico Plains and much of west Texas. Weak Pacific cold front
associated with the upper system will move southeast through the
forecast area tonight. Will continue the slight chance to chance
of thunderstorms tonight across the extreme eastern Permian Basin
and lower Trans Pecos where the deeper moisture and low level
convergence will be maximized for the longest period of time
along the front.

In the wake of this system southwesterly flow aloft will return
Sunday. This should allow the dryline to surge again toward the
eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos by late afternoon and
then retreat toward the mountains again Sunday night. Will continue
a slight chance of thunderstorms across the eastern Permian Basin
and lower Trans Pecos near the sloshing dryline Sunday and Sunday
night.

Thunderstorm chances will continue every day next week for most
areas due to an endless series of Pacific storm systems tracking
east across the Rockies and western Plains. These upper level
systems will interact with a moist and unstable airmass across
west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Some of the medium range
guidance is suggesting the possibility of occasional heavy rain
and flash flooding possible.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY from Noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10

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