Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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583
FXUS64 KMAF 212322
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
622 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is TSRA affecting
terminals this evening. Currently have scattered thunderstorms out
west near CNM and also across central portions of the Permian
Basin. Have continued mention of TSRA at all terminals for at
least a few hours this evening but convection will quickly wane as
we approach sunset. Storms may result in gusty/erratic winds as
well as brief periods of heavy rainfall leading to low vis. Will
continue to monitor radar trends and amend if needed. Beyond this
evening, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals with
relatively light southerly winds in place. Could see another round
of afternoon/evening storms Wednesday but will leave mention out
for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge that has settled over Texas most of July will remain
in place the rest of the week and likely through the end of the
month. For the next couple of days though the ridge will flatten
enough to allow a few disturbances to move across the area.
Convection was fairly widespread yesterday over the western half of
the CWA. Storms developed along a sfc trough within a mid level
theta-e axis (340K+). Think this will be the case this afternoon and
again tomorrow as the theta-e axis shifts slightly east into parts
of the Permian Basin. Storms have already developed in the Davis
Mountains and are beginning to spread north and east. There are
also several boundaries around the area from overnight convection
that storms may form on. Even though temperatures are a few
degrees cooler than yesterday, most locations will still reach
near the 100 degree mark. These hot temperatures will create a dry
subcloud layer which will lead to gusty winds in and near any
thunderstorm. Locally heavy rain will also be possible due to slow
storm movement and PWATs near 1.5". A similar setup is expected
Wednesday before the ridge strengthens again over the area late
this week.

The theta-e ridge moves west back over the higher terrain Thursday
as will the precip chances. By the weekend, the ridge will be strong
enough to suppress most if not all convection. The only lingering
chance of an isolated storm or two will be over the Davis
Mountains. It doesn`t look like we will get a break from the heat
any time soon as models show the upper ridge across the area into
next week. Temperatures should reach near 100 each day unless you
are lucky enough to be in the mountains where highs will stay in
the low to mid 90`s.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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