Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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399
FXUS64 KMAF 192320
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with gusty north wind dropping off after sunset.
Wind will veer around to the E overnight becoming SE Monday as new
leeside trough develops.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Northwest flow aloft over the region today will transition to
west/southwest flow through the week as an ua trough over the
central U.S. Plains translates eastward, and a southern stream
shortwave trough approaches from the west.  A cold front will
continue to drop south into the area, with gusty northerly winds
behind it.  The parent surface ridge will settle into central Texas
by Monday morning with seasonably cool temperatures expected.  The
surface ridge will shift eastward Monday with return southeasterly
flow allowing a modicum of low level moisture return.  Will continue
to carry a slight chance of thunderstorms in the Davis Mountains as
temperatures will warm enough over the higher terrain for perhaps a
thunderstorm or two.  It doesn`t appear any convection that forms
will last long into the evening.  Southerly winds Monday night and
Tuesday will result in the formation of a dryline with a slight
chance of convective initiation along it Tuesday afternoon and
evening.  There are some indications a shortwave trough will
traverse the region Tuesday afternoon, although it is subtle in
model output.  Also, there is still some question where the
dryline will set up during the afternoon.  Since temperatures will
warm above normal and there will be plenty of SBcape, at least
1500 J/Kg, steep mid level lapse rates around 8 C/Km and 0 to 6 Km
Bulk Shear of 35-45kt, later shifts will have to monitor for the
possibility of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe.

The dryline will remain over the region Wednesday through Friday,
although by Friday it may be on the eastern fringe of the forecast
area, if not east of the region.  Therefore, will carry a slight
chance of thunderstorms each of these days.  As soon as a better
handle can be gained on the whereabouts of the dryline each of these
afternoons/evenings, later shifts will likely increase PoPs.  Since
we will heat nearly 10 degrees above normal through midweek, and
thermodynamic parameters appear to be favorable, the potential
exists for more severe thunderstorms.  Stay tuned.  Another front
could drop into the region Friday when the above mentioned ua trough
passes. However, not much cooling may occur behind it Friday with
temperatures rebounding above normal pretty quickly Saturday and
Sunday.  But, it does look as though the forecast will be dry next
weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions along the Upper Trans Pecos and westward are expected to
remain dry through this week.  This will result in further drying of
the fuels.  Temperatures are expected to warm up to above normal
beginning on Tuesday.  RH values of 15 percent or less are expected
today along the Pecos River and extending south and west of this
area, but wind speeds are not expected to be very strong.
Conditions will improve on Monday behind the cold front with most
places experiencing RH values of at least 20 percent.  Dry air will
once again come into areas along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos
on Tuesday, with critical conditions possible in the Guadalupes.
This dry air will spread eastward as the week continues and winds
will become elevated out of the west to southwest.  Some of the
models are indicating RH values in the single digits across portions
of the area.  These conditions will result in possible fire weather
concerns through the end of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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