Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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969
FXUS64 KMAF 291013
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
413 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Today will be unseasonably warm area-wide, thanks to a combination
of zonal flow aloft, southwesterly flow at the surface, and the
influence of a surface trough over the area.  Forecast high
temperatures come close to record territory today, with mid 70s to
near 80 degrees expected, with warmest temperatures in the Pecos and
Rio Grande Valleys.  The forecast high for Midland today of 76
degrees is only two degrees shy of the record of 78 degrees set back
in 1975. Winds will increase and could become gusty this afternoon
and early this evening, especially for the Guadalupe Mountains and
Guadalupe Pass, where sustained speeds may approach 35-40mph, and
gusts of 45-55mph are possible. Sunday will see another warm day,
with temperatures a degree or two cooler than Saturday, but still
mild for this time of year.

A big change is on the way late Sunday night and Monday when a
strong cold front will move through the area.  Models continue to
indicate cooler temperatures behind the front with each successive
run, thus have trended away from the warmer GFS guidance and
adjusted temperatures down in the wake of the front.  The front
should reach the Big Bend area by the afternoon, and while
temperatures across the southern tier of the CWFA will have a bit of
time to warm up prior to FROPA, temperatures across the majority of
the area will struggle to climb into the 50s, and will feel even
cooler due to breezy north winds and cloudcover. The dry air mass in
place and lack of moisture accompanying the front will negate any
chance of precipitation with FROPA.

The cold temperatures will be short-lived, however, as flow aloft
remains quasi-zonal and surface winds veer to the south by Tuesday
afternoon.  Temperatures will remain several degrees below normal on
Tuesday, and moderate to near normal through the end of the week.
By late next week however, the GFS and ECMWF solutions diverge, with
the GFS indicating a trough developing over the western CONUS and
the ECMWF indicating a weak ridge over the inter-mountain West on
Friday. Also, while the GFS continues to generate some light QPF
over portions of the area Friday, the ECMWF QPF has trended east and
south.  Thus, have adjusted PoPs down at the end of the extended,
with better model agreement needed before jumping on board with
mentionable PoPs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  40  76  31  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              77  43  75  31  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                77  39  76  38  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  71  43  73  44  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  48  79  38  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  45  67  39  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   74  37  74  33  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   71  29  70  31  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    76  40  75  30  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  75  42  75  32  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    80  38  79  35  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/84

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