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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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998
FXUS64 KMAF 241136
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BY MID MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCNM. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER
THE CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A PROB30
GROUPING. IF CONDITIONS WARRANT THE TAFS WILL BE AMENDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANY CHANGES IN WEATHER.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

DISCUSSION...

THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN AFTER A FAIRLY BUSY EVENING. MANY LOCATIONS
RECEIVED SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WITH SEVERAL INCHES FALLING FROM
SNYDER TO BIG SPRING TO BIG LAKE. ALL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS THE HEAVY RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MAY HAMPER CONVECTIVE CHANCES A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE S/W, THERE MAY BE ONE OR TWO
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. WITH THAT SAID,
EXPECT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT MAINLY AFTER LUNCHTIME. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK
TODAY...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG WILL
PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVY RAIN.

VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
STORM COVERAGE. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
STRENGTHENING CAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, BUT COULD STILL SEE AN
ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE DRYLINE. MODELS THEN DISAGREE A BIT ON THE
MID TO LATE WEEK WX PATTERN. THE ECMWF EJECTS A STRONG TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TROUGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
NEXT SYSTEM. EITHER WAY MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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