Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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255
FXUS64 KMAF 260216
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
916 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery shows another clear night over West Texas and SE
NM, w/sfc obs showing a little more return flow than 24 hours ago.
Latest NAM develops a 30+kt LLJ overnight. this, and the fact that
very little fog developed last night, fog development looks
doubtful overnight. The HRRR agrees. However, forecast soundings
suggest temps can be lowered a couple of degrees. We`ll do a quick
update for this, and adjust other parameters as necessary. Updates
out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Areal coverage of fog was less this morning than yesterday, with
only a couple of observation sites reporting dense fog this morning,
and satellite imagery verifying very sparse coverage overall.  An
upper ridge over the region will keep well above normal temperatures
going this afternoon and Sunday.  Further drying of the boundary
layer, and more pointedly the ground, in addition to the warmer
afternoon temperatures taking longer to cool to surface dewpoints
overnight will likely continue the trend of less fog the next couple
of mornings.

The next couple of days temperatures will approach, if not eclipse,
record levels as the ua ridge over the region flattens due to an ua
trough traversing the western/central ConUS.  The record high
temperature for Midland International Airport is 90 degrees for
today, the 25th, but also the 26th and 27th in 2011, 1950 and 1988
respectively.  Although record highs are not looking likely this
afternoon, a surface trough developing south into the area Sunday,
and the associated low level thermal ridge, could allow temps to
warm near record levels.  On Monday, increasing southwesterly flow
aloft will aid and abet southwest to west downslope, surface winds,
which could also promote temperatures warming to near, or above,
record levels.  The only caveat Monday will be some increase in high
clouds tempering readings a little.  Southwest winds will increase
the most in the Guadalupe Mountains Monday, but at this time it does
not appear mid level winds will be strong enough for high winds
there.

A fairly significant cool down is expected Tuesday as a cold front
drops south into the region in the wake of the mentioned ua trough.
Subsequent shifts will have to monitor whether a high gap wind event
will be possible in Guadalupe Pass behind the front.  High
temperatures will end up 2 to 5 degrees below normal Tuesday
afternoon, especially north of Interstate 10.  In addition,
temperatures could cool into the upper 50s over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin late Tuesday afternoon.  Seasonal
temperatures will prevail areawide Wednesday before a gradual
warming trend sets in Thursday and beyond.  Just how much it warms
late next week will depend on how aggressively an ua ridge builds
eastward over the region, and will likely split the difference
between more/less aggressive model offerings.  As far as rain
chances, showers and thunderstorms could affect the Lower Trans
Pecos, westward into the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region Tuesday
to Thursday.  Since the amplitude of the passing ua troughs are not
progged to be very deep, and the quality of moisture over the region
is not progged to be very good, will leave the extended forecast dry
for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 55  88  59  88  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              58  89  62  90  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                53  89  56  89  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  87  62  89  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  90  61  90  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  85  59  83  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   53  87  55  85  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   44  80  47  81  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  89  61  90  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  88  62  89  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    55  90  61  90  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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