Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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846
FXUS64 KMAF 262311
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS. KMAF RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WELL SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TRANS PECOS
REGION OF WEST TEXAS. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING AT KPEQ AND KFST. MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MENTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST TRENDS.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING STORMS ARE FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN WITH NEW CONVECTION FIRING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A BOUNDARY
LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER STORMS IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN WITH A COLD FRONT NEARING LUBBOCK. AS WE CONTINUE
TO HEAT UP, CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND FOCUS NEAR
THESE BOUNDARIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DUE TO WEAK SHEAR, BUT A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING SO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WILL BE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT. SUNDAY, FOR
NOW, LOOKS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION UNLESS AN UNFORSEEN
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH WITHIN THE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
MODELS ARE HINTING CONVECTION MAY MOVE SOUTH OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BEYOND THAT, THE UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST MAY TRY TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD
KEEP US MOSTLY DRY MUCH OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A FEW STORMS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE NEXT
WEEK SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DO THE SAME. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL AND STAY THERE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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