Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 161139

639 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014


Please see the 16/12Z aviation forecast discussion below.



The forecast is somewhat complicated this morning. The air mass
over west Texas and southeastern New Mexico remains moist and
marginally unstable. A complex interaction of outflow boundaries
and southward-progressing upper level gravity waves has produced
elevated TSRA now about 40 nm SE KFST. Mid and high-level clouds
will retard isolation only slightly, and with heating will come
a better chance for TSRA development later this afternoon and
evening. The remnants of a MCS presently over northwestern
Chihuahua will progress eastward across far west Texas today,
while daytime heating over the mountains will produce buildups
by late morning. The net result will be an uptick in scattered
TSRA development by early-mid afternoon over the mountains, with
this activity spreading east during the afternoon and early
evening hours. INVOF TSRA activity expect MVFR conditions in RA
with wind gusts near 40 kts.  There`s also some potential for hybrid
microbursts with this activity. Convection rooted in the PBL should
die off after sunset. Much like last night and early this
morning, interactions of outflow boundaries with a modest low
level jet and maybe tickled by gravity waves, isolated elevated
TSRA may continue through the early morning hours Sunday.

We`ve gone ahead and introduced a PROB30 group in the mid to late
afternoon hours at KCNM, KFST, KINK, and KPEQ.  At KMAF and KHOB,
it`ll be more wait-and-see, depending on how TSRA evolves off the
mountains. Variable winds under 10 kts will become southeasterly
to southerly this morning, and perhaps gusty at KFST and KMAF
where a decaying LLJ mixes down to the surface. Skies outside of
TSRA will be VFR, with several mid and high level decks expected.
After TSRA develops and cold pools spread outward from them, wind
directions will be chaotic. Have maintained an expected wind
vector after 00Z, but this will all be subject to change.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014/

There does not appear to be too much change from last nights model
runs with subtropical ridge centered across AZ and minor shrtwv
trof within NW-N flow aloft. Convection has been moving across the
area early this morning with modest LLJ impinging on outflow
boundary, but it does look to be slowly waning and exiting to the
east. Based on deterministic model QPFs including SREF QPF probabilities
there will be good opportunity for at least scattered PoPs from
the Davis Mtns ene thru the PB during max heating. This is pretty
well handled in current fcst and have only trend up PoPs slightly
and moreso in the Davis Mtns. NAM12 continues to reflect a cold pool
in temp field across the PB after 21Z so we`ll have to watch for
higher PoPs. Mid and upper 20C 85h temps continue to support above
normal temps but again convection could alter this to be a little
cooler. 5h heights fall slightly Sunday and 85h temps are a little
cooler too while axis of higher precip will shift swd into the Lower
Trans Pecos. Only minor changes are needed to account for this.
Drying trend will continue into Monday/Tuesday however 5h/7h
heights are seasonally low suggesting near to just below seasonal
temperatures. As an upper low moves into/near SoCal Wednesday the
monsoonal moist axis will shift ewd making it into the far wrn
CWFA, thus warranting an increase in PoPs there and probably
moreso Thur. 7h temps in the extended forecast are a little above
normal per NAEFS, but high temperatures will be somewhat nice
compared to what they could be this time of yr. There are no
anomalies seen Fri/Sat in the temperature/height/mstr fields in
the GEFS/NAEFS ensemble data.






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