Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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268
FXUS64 KMAF 220845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the PacNW trough from 24 hrs ago now over MT, and
extending thru the Rockies and into the desert SW, and set to move
thru West Texas/SE NM later today.  Closer to home, area radars show
spotty SHRA across the area, in line w/what`s occurred over the past
24 hrs.  MPE amounts over the past 24 hrs suggest models were
somewhat overwrought w/this event, although the main trough has yet
to pass thru.  Buffer soundings keep PWATs near 2 STD DEVs above
normal this morning, w/the column saturated to H5, but model QPFs
are not impressive.  Neither are instability parameters, w/forecast
sbcapes generally below 1000 J/kg.  Models bring the upper jet thru
the area this morning and afternoon, w/the left front exit region running
along the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, so lift may be a bit better
there.  Still, all this suggests leaning toward a low-pop, low-qpf
scenario, w/more SHRA than TSRA.  POPs will taper off to the SE and
S thru Thu morning as the tail-end of the trough exits the region.
An upper-lvl ridge then builds in from the west into the weekend,
then gets flattened SE as a broad, west coast trough approaches.
This feature is forecast to move thru the region Monday or so,
dropping a cold front into the area late Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

W/abundant cloud cover, saturated columns, and persistently-high sfc
dewpoints, diurnal spreads on temps will remain small in the
short-term, which would favor leaning towards the GFS MOS over the
NAM.  W/upper ridging expected, the long term favors the slightly
warmer GFS over the ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  57  81  58  /  40  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              74  55  81  57  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  56  81  54  /  30  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  70  59  80  61  /  30  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           77  57  81  59  /  40  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  57  76  59  /  20  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                   75  54  80  55  /  30  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   71  47  76  46  /  30  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  53  81  56  /  40  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  73  54  81  56  /  40  10  10   0
WINK TX                    79  53  84  56  /  40  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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