Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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230
FXUS64 KMAF 201751
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 20/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

An outflow boundary has sagged south, crossing KCNM, KHOB, KINK
and KMAF, while the "true" front won`t arrive until 20Z or so.
Post-frontal stratus is breaking up according to satellite data,
thus will go with VFR conditions. Possible we`ll see SHRA/TSRA
activity affecting KCNM, KPEQ, and maybe KINK after midnight but
the factors favoring this scenario are diminishing with time.
Should see a return to MVFR cigs at KMAF and KFST early Sunday
morning, with skies breaking to VFR by mid morning. Gusty east to
northeast winds are expected this afternoon before dropping under
11 knots very early this evening. Will see an increase in winds
with some slight veering expected by mid morning Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 451 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front working thru the South
Plains, w/the latest NAM bringing fropa thru KMAF late morning, w/sfc
flow gradually backing north over the next 12 hours or so. Main
concerns remain cigs. Forecast soundings still develop stratus
as the front moves south, w/LIFR/IFR conditions expected eastern
terminals, to MVFR/VFR west. May see some scattering to VFR all
terminals during the afternoon, but convection along the front
may hinder this.

AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Precipitation has remained just east and north of the area
overnight tonight, though the much advertised cold front
continues its push southward through the Texas Panhandle and
eastern New Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front
have made the front difficult to distinguish on surface
observations, though it appears to be located roughly from north
of Childress westward to just south of Clovis, New Mexico. High
resolution guidance indicates that the front will begin to move
into far northern zones around 12Z/7AM CDT this morning, and
progress southward (aided somewhat by convective outflow) before
stalling out and becoming diffuse in the vicinity of the Pecos
River around 18Z/1PM CDT this afternoon. Precipitable water values
remain high across the area, ranging from around 1.0 to 1.5
inches, and given the approaching front and lingering boundaries
across the area, thunderstorms are possible areawide today. The
primary threat, similar to the past several days, will be locally
heavy rainfall. Localized flooding concerns may also materialize,
particularly in areas that have received recent rainfall as well
as any locations that experience cell training. Given the timing
of the front this morning and early afternoon, highs will only
reach into the 80s today, with a couple spots around 90 degrees,
mainly in the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys. With a
northeasterly wind shift in the wake of the front today, breezy
northeasterly gap winds could materialize in Guadalupe Pass for a
few hours this afternoon.

Temperatures Sunday in the wake of the front will be well below
normal, with highs in the 80s for much of the area, and even some
upper 70s across the higher terrain. Moist southeasterly surface
flow as well as the diffuse boundary will maintain precipitation
chances across the area on Sunday, with guidance indicating the
best chance across higher terrain and adjacent plains to the west,
as well as across the Lower Trans Pecos and in the Big Bend Area.
After another cool day Monday, temperatures will moderate a bit
back toward normal on Tuesday and Wednesday, though given the
abundance of low and midlevel moisture over the area, rain chances
look to stick around, as weak perturbations in the southwesterly
flow aloft move over the region. Rain chances look to be a bit
lower on Tuesday and Wednesday, though models have come into
better agreement regarding the evolution of a trough that is
progged to develop over the southwestern CONUS next week and
progress eastward, indicating the potential for another front and
increased rain chances by late next week. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  68  85  68 /  50  20  20  30
Carlsbad                       87  66  85  65 /  40  40  30  30
Dryden                         89  73  87  71 /  40  30  40  40
Fort Stockton                  87  67  84  65 /  40  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 81  61  77  59 /  40  40  40  30
Hobbs                          82  62  81  63 /  40  30  20  20
Marfa                          84  60  79  59 /  40  40  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           87  67  84  67 /  40  20  20  30
Odessa                         87  67  84  67 /  40  30  20  30
Wink                           89  68  87  67 /  40  50  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

70/67/70

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