Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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107
FXUS64 KMAF 300554
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1254 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Area radars and short-term models show convection has largely
diminished across the area. VFR conditions will prevail next 24
hours in return flow under persistent ridging aloft. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by late Thursday morning,
w/initial bases 4.5-7 kft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast for increased chance of thunderstorms over the
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and mountain areas.

DISCUSSION...
By mid-afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were developing along
a surface boundary entering the northern Permian Basin in an area
characterized by CAPE values ranging from 500 to 1000. Continued
development along this boundary as well as any additional outflow
boundaries that might develop is possible through early evening as
the atmosphere across the region is uncapped. Though instability
is less over the Permian Basin, will need to watch boundaries for
possible foci of development. Thunderstorms will begin to
decrease this evening with a loss of heating. Though shear is
insufficient for organized thunderstorm activity, DCAPE values are
significant, in excess of 1000. Sub-cloud evaporation will be
capable of producing strong and possibly damaging downbursts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Hot and muggy weather
continues with convection starting in the usual places...the
Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and the adjacent Plains. Convection is also
forming a little further east in Western Lea and Eddy Counties
along the thetae ridge per the HRRR and RAP13 high res models.

The persistent subtropical ridge centered over the Arklatex area
will shift west over the Central Plains as a trough deepens in the
eastern US. This might actually result in no convection in the
CWA Thursday thru Friday due to increased subsidence from the
ridge center moving overhead. Temps might not be as hot as the
previous week...but will remain above normal.

Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of convection
in the CWA over the weekend as the ridge continues to shift west
to over the four corners area. This will bring a NW flow aloft
possibly bringing convection into the area out of Northern New
Mexico.

As a trough in the EastPac moves into the Pacific NW early next
week the ridge will flatten and elongate bringing a return to
drier weather...with triple digits possible once again in the
Plains by mid week.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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