Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 290525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1225 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

See 06Z aviation discussion below.


Southeast winds will shift from the west later tonight then become
gusty during the day before subsiding after 00Z. Satellite shows
patchy MVFR CIGs moving up from the southeast and may affect MAF
the next few hours. A dryline moving east will shift the winds
from the west and will push east any low clouds leaving VFR
conditions through the remainder of the period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1000 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/


Latest sfc analysis shows the dryline has bowed westward in its
retreat, and extends from near KSGV-KINK-KPEQ-KFST-KPEQ. This
feature is forecast to retreat a bit more thru at least 06Z, then
begin mixing eastward as stronger westerlies push into the region.
Latest HRRR seems to have finally gotten right after 00Z data came
in, and still hints at convection developing overnight as the
dryline surges east. 00Z NAM agrees as well. W/steep mid-lvl LRs
still forecast, and strong deep lyr shear rounding the base of the
trough, still cannot rule out a svr threat overnight. However,
based on latest HRRR/NAM, we`ll lower POPs some, but keep coverage
the same. In addition, we`ll update other parameters as necessary,
and button up the fire wx grids w/the expiration of the RFW.
Updates out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 215 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/


WV imagery shows an upper trough digging over the Four Corners
region this afternoon. This has led to increasing SW flow aloft and
the development of a surface low over E NM. Moisture has begun to
surge back west across the area in response to height falls
associated with the upper trough. A sharpening dryline may be a
focus for a few showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon
across the eastern half of the Permian Basin. The best chance for
storms comes later tonight as the dryline retreats west and large
scale lift arrives with the upper trough. Storms are expected to
develop across the western Permian Basin where a Pacific front
will combine with the dryline and move back east across the region
overnight. Some of these storms may be severe with large hail and
damaging winds given steepening lapse rates and an increasing LLJ.

These storms move east quickly Friday morning with windy, dry
conditions filling in across the region Friday afternoon. The base
of the upper trough will graze our area similar to the system this
past Tuesday. Strong westerly winds will mix to the surface,
especially across the higher terrain and adjacent plains. Will
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning across the Guadalupe
Mountains. Strong winds are also possible east of the mountains so a
Winds Advisory may be issued on later shifts.

Another upper trough will drop south across Nevada and Arizona
Saturday helping to again draw moisture back west across Texas. At
the same time, a strong cold front will move south across the area
Sunday. Showers and storms are expected to increase along and behind
the front Sunday and Monday as the upper trough approaches.
Temperatures look to cool significantly behind the front due to the
widespread clouds and precip. It is possible many locations may drop
into the 50`s Sunday afternoon and stay there trough Monday! We will
continue to monitor the forecast and make changes if needed.

An upper ridge builds in behind this system, but temperatures stay
cool through midweek before rebounding to near normal late next


Warm and dry conditions continue to reside across the area and
with an upper trough to the west there are increasing winds too.
The warm, dry and unstable conditions are reflected in a moderate
Haines Index of 5 and the RFW continues across the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico. Critical fire weather concerns
will expand on Friday to reach farther south into the Davis Mtns
and east into the western PB. Temps will cool, but winds will be
stronger Friday. The Trans Pecos and southeast NM plains continue
to undergo substantial drying and are at or very near the 90th
percentile using ERC-G from TAMFS and certainly supports critical
fire weather.


Big Spring                     50  79  52  69 /  10   0   0  20
Carlsbad                       49  83  50  66 /   0  10   0  30
Dryden                         59  91  61  85 /  10   0   0  30
Fort Stockton                  54  86  56  82 /   0   0   0  30
Guadalupe Pass                 49  74  48  64 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          46  77  48  64 /   0   0   0  30
Marfa                          39  77  43  79 /   0  10   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           53  84  54  71 /  10   0  10  30
Odessa                         55  84  54  71 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  87  55  74 /   0   0   0  30


.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.



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