Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 201104

604 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015


Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.



VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Light east
winds will increase out of the southeast by mid-morning to around
12-15kt, with breezy conditions expected to persist through Monday


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2015/

12hr surface pressure falls today of about 10mb will result in
increased s-se winds and maintain coolish 85h temps, 15C east to 19C
w. As such high temps will be about 5-7F below normal. Despite cool
surface temps steep mid level LRs across the Davis Mtns will favor
the formation of isold diurnal tstms. As se-s winds persist into
Tue AM low level mstr will slowly increase underneath steep mid
level LRs. NAM12 still persist in developing isold area of
convection on e slopes of Davis Mtns and drifts e in FST area.
Farther e on Tue PM in area between the surface thermal ridge
across the w-nw PB and the surface mstr axis ABI-JCT will be
favored for tstms. A close inspection of SB CINH in said area does
reveal a weakness. 85h winds suggest dryline will hold across the
ern PB and fcst soundings around SNK show no cap and CAPES of 1500
J/KG, 0-6km shear 40-50kts, so isold severe tstms are possible.
High temps will be back into the normal range Tue. Wly mid level
flow strengthens Wed and dry air will push out farther e, mostly
precluding convective concerns, and keeping temps well above
normal. Mid level flow backs Thur ahead of upper low and a minor
shrtwv trof will eject out across the area. Surface mstr pattern
will be diffuse and high based -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible. Storms
will be possible into Fri AM across the east and Lower Trans
Pecos as 5h speed max comes out across the plains leaving said
area INVOF RRQ of 5h jet. It should be noted that ECMWF is slower
with upper low. During the afternoon both models favor windy/very
windy conditions with 30-40kts 7h winds across W TX plains during
max heating in alignment with sufficiently tight MSLP gradient to
kick winds up, probably easily into advisory level. Models are
hesitant to bring front thru on Sat, which does not make much
sense. According to models Sat/Sun would be warm/dry/breezy.
Front may bi-sect CWFA Monday, but models are disparate.

In the wake of Sunday`s cold front, minimum RH values will offer a
bit of reprieve today, climbing to 15 to 30 percent across the area.
However, this reprieve will be short-lived as a significant drying
and warming trend takes over. Dry low and mid level flow through
the first half of the week will exacerbate the drying of fuels
across southeast New Mexico and west Texas, and with a return to
southwest flow aloft by midweek ahead of the next approaching
trough, winds will increase as well as temperatures, with highs
climbing well above normal into the middle to upper 80s, and even
low 90s by midweek. While the warm and dry conditions will be
pronounced on Tuesday, Wednesday currently looks to be of greater
concern for critical fire weather conditions due to a tighter
pressure gradient and thus stronger winds, especially across the
western half of the forecast area. Minimum RH values Wednesday are
progged to drop into the single digits across the southeast New
Mexico Plains and higher terrain to the west, and given sustained
wind speeds up to around 30mph expected through the Guadalupe
Mountains, have gone ahead and issued a preemptive Fire Weather
Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains for Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening. Models have yet to reach a consensus regarding
the position of the dryline, progged to return by Wednesday and
Thursday, with the ECMWF still indicating the dryline across the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, and the GFS pushing the
dryline further east toward central Texas. The position of the
dryline will impact future Fire Weather headlines this week, but
pending either scenario, elevated to critical fire weather
conditions look to be possible from midweek through next weekend.


NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.




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