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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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Product Version: 2013-05-18 22:46:41 2013-05-18 19:47:26 2013-05-18 17:13:04 2013-05-18 11:23:36 2013-05-18 08:59:52 2013-05-18 05:30:29 2013-05-17 22:47:42 2013-05-17 19:30:23 2013-05-17 17:29:00 2013-05-17 11:16:57 2013-05-17 09:26:40 2013-05-17 05:19:42 2013-05-16 23:10:32 2013-05-16 19:45:39 2013-05-16 17:38:43 2013-05-16 11:25:05 2013-05-16 09:43:33 2013-05-16 05:17:52 2013-05-15 23:12:21 2013-05-15 19:34:12 2013-05-15 16:12:08 2013-05-15 11:27:46 2013-05-15 09:37:33 2013-05-15 05:34:19 2013-05-14 23:22:37 2013-05-14 19:30:44 2013-05-14 17:53:00 2013-05-14 11:02:09 2013-05-14 07:59:20 2013-05-14 05:10:40 2013-05-13 23:30:42 2013-05-13 19:35:00 2013-05-13 17:40:03 2013-05-13 10:55:50 2013-05-13 08:37:22 2013-05-13 04:53:18 2013-05-13 00:01:46 2013-05-12 19:57:53 2013-05-12 17:26:13 2013-05-12 10:58:06 2013-05-12 08:19:38 2013-05-12 04:37:40 ALL   

825
FXUS64 KMAF 182246
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY WILL DIMINISH
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY
BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WESTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.
VERY DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AND
NEAR RECORD HEAT.

THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW FAR EASTWARD THE DRYLINE
WILL MIX THIS AFTERNOON.  THE 12Z KMAF SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE.  THE DRYLINE QUICKLY MOVED
EAST OF MIDLAND.  CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE TTU MESONET
SHOW THAT THE DRYLINE HAS MIXED TO NEAR A FLUVANNA TO ST. LAWRENCE
LINE AT PRESENT TIME.  PRIMARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
MIX FARTHER TO THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS KEPT THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FROM JUST EAST OF MIDLAND
TO JUST WEST OF SANDERSON.  HOWEVER...THEY HAVE ADJUSTED THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA FARTHER EAST.  I WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT.  A 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CWA
AND AREAS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CWA HAVE FORECAST 700 MB
TEMPS OF 13-14C AT 00Z THIS EVENING.  IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
OVERCOME A CAP LIKE THAT...PROBABLY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TIME FOR DRIER AIR MIX FARTHER EASTWARD....WHICH
OF COURSE WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
OUR AREA AND CERTAINLY DIMINISH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  WHILE THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS DOES SHOW AROUND 2000 J/KG CAPE OVER SCURRY COUNTY
PRESENTLY...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT YET SEEN VIA RADAR OR SATELLITE.
FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW ORDER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. IF A
THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO REACH STRONG LEVELS...AND WILL PLACE THAT WORDING IN TODAY`S
GRAPHIC.

WE START TO SEE SOME INTERESTING CHANCES BY MID WEEK.  INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEAST SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS
COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
ALVIN COULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FOR NOW...WE HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT POP GRIDS
FORECAST AND RE-EVALUATE RAIN POTENTIAL WITH LATER SHIFTS.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 63  95  60  95  /   0   0  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              66  96  61  97  /  10   0  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                65  95  62  96  /   0   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  68 100  67 101  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  97  65  98  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  87  60  88  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   60  93  59  93  /   0   0  10   0
MARFA TX                   50  87  48  89  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  95  62  97  /   0   0  10   0
ODESSA TX                  66  95  63  96  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    63 101  61 101  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
     NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
     PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...
     DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
     HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
     COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
     HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES
     COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
     CORRIDOR.


&&

$$

80/03