403
FXUS64 KMAF 192001
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
301 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER MEXICO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN EDGING NORTHWARD TOWARD WEST TEXAS
TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS AS LEE TROUGHING ENHANCES
TO THE NORTH. SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING AND
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO LOW 90S. SEVERAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS
AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAIN REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE OUT INTO THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS
OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN EARLY MORNING
MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN...AS NOTED ON RADAR.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MAKE NOTE OF THIS IN THE HWO. ANY CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED SHORT- LIVED TORNADO.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT
MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS...KEEP STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HEATING NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS MAY HELP
TO GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW HOWEVER IF WE CAN GET A
WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING PEAK
HEATING...COINCIDENT WITH A MID LEVEL THETA E AXIS...THEN ITS
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH HIGHER READINGS IN THE PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 73 96 72 96 / 20 10 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 73 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 71 101 70 100 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 76 97 75 95 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 73 97 73 97 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 69 94 69 93 / 20 30 30 20
HOBBS NM 71 97 70 96 / 20 20 20 20
MARFA TX 62 92 62 90 / 20 20 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 73 96 72 96 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 73 97 74 96 / 10 10 10 0
WINK TX 73 100 73 100 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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