553
FXUS64 KMAF 112229
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
529 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION WORRIES NEXT 24 HOURS...AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION
TODAY SO DESPITE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE BIG BEND
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE
TOMORROW AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...TO MOVE EAST OVER LOUISIANA. THIS OPENS UP WEST TEXAS AND
NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING THE LOW NORTH ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND
RAIN. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE BIG BEND LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
SPREADING NORTH OVERNIGHT. MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-10 THURSDAY WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND DIABATIC HEATING OF THE
TERRAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL BE CRUCIAL
TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MOST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER...ONLY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION WILL BE EXPECTED WEST OF THE CENTER. FORTUNATELY MOST
MODELS TAKE THE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND AND INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN
BASIN WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DECENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL BE THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WITH THE LOW
CENTER OVERHEAD WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY THOUGH CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING AS THE LOW BECOMES SHEARED INTO A TROUGH AND
GETS PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND MOVES BACK TO THE EAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES TO ALMOST 2 INCHES
ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND POINT TO A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND
LIKELY SOUTH TO NORTH TRAINING OF CONVECTION. THUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.
THE RAIN COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL DROP TEMPS
BEGINNING THURSDAY...BUT REALLY TAKING HOLD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS. A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL AMPLIFY RIDGING CENTERED ON THE
PLAINS AND SENDING TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE UPPER 90S BY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO PUT AN END
TO RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HENNIG
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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