Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 092259

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

First period pops.


Have some lingering showers and storms over the Permian Basin.
Have updated forecast to extend isolated pops into the evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 556 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/

See aviation discussion below.

Cold front currently near the Pecos River will continue to shift
south overnight. KMAF radar currently indicating showers with this
front in the northern and central Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Areal coverage of showers is too low to mention at
any of the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. Will
continue to monitor for possible updates. Mostly cloudy skies are
expected the next 24 hours with TEMPO MVFR ceilings and or visibilities
in fog is expected mainly in the 11Z to 16Z Saturday timeframe.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 157 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/


A cutoff upper low which brought the region rain in the last couple
of days will retrograde to the eastern Pacific Ocean, generally just
west of the Baja Peninsula over the next couple of days and next
week.  As the influence of this feature lessens over the region,
rain chances will diminish.  A weak cold front is easing south into
the area this afternoon, but do not expect much precipitation or
cooler temperatures with this boundary.  Will still keep a slight
chance of thunderstorms over the western half or so of the forecast
area tonight since these areas are closer to the upper low, and near
the front.  Will only carry a slight chance of thunderstorms over
the Davis Mountains Saturday.  Heavy rainfall will be hard to come
by this afternoon and tonight due to a lack of instability, while
modest instability and weak shear Saturday will prevent organized

The wet ground over the area could result in fog development
tonight, but it looks as though cloud cover will be too extensive in
most places for appreciable fog to form.  As cloud cover becomes
more scarce Saturday afternoon and beyond, we will see a warming and
drying trend.  The only interruption to this trend will be a cold
front moving into the area Monday, with low temperatures near normal
Tuesday morning, and highs around normal Tuesday afternoon.  It`ll
be windy behind the front Monday, windy enough for some blowing
dust, but not for high winds or even wind advisory criteria.  For
the rest of next week, the forecast area will reside under the
influence of an upper ridge.  Although low temperatures Wednesday
through Friday will be near to below normal, high temperatures will
be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.


BIG SPRING TX                  61  80  62  88  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    58  78  61  87  /  20  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      66  86  66  91  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               59  81  63  89  /  20  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              54  71  60  79  /  20  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                       57  76  59  85  /  20  10   0   0
MARFA TX                       53  76  49  79  /  20  30  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        61  80  64  88  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                      61  81  63  88  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                        62  79  62  89  /  20  10   0   0




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