Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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137
FXUS64 KMAF 261945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the TUTT centered just SW of KMAF, further east
than models forecast 24 hours ago.  Today, most models place the
TUTT too far east, w/some, like the GFS, already in major
disagreement w/the current position.  Corresponding QPF fields are
all over the map, as well. Although models don`t capture this well,
all tend to take the TUTT back east into the Hill Country, then
south into Mexico over the next 36-48 hours.  Meanwhile, out west,
the usual daytime heating/destabilization is taking place over the
higher terrain, w/upslope flow spawning afternoon convection.
Therefore, all areas overnight stand a good chance at getting wet.
We`ll concentrate higher POPs over the NE overnight coincident w/the
TUTT, then shift them west Monday as the TUTT moves east.  As the
TUTT heads south, this will allow the upper ridge covering the srn
CONUS to center/strengthen over the Four Corners area into the
extended.  This will allow the low-lvl theta-e ridge to remain out
west for the next couple of days, promoting convection over the
higher terrain each day. Tuesday, a shortwave will move into central
Texas, and may clip the NE zones.  After that, the ridge is forecast
to sink south a bit, and the focus for convection in the extended
will shift to the nrn zones as shortwaves move thru the top of the
ridge.

For temps, thicknesses invof the TUTT will keep things at or below
normal over the first part of the week, before things ramp up again
as the upper ridge builds NW.  However, w/the ridge staying to the
west as far as forecast, most areas should avoid the triple digits.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  92  71  94 /  40  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       69  88  68  94 /  40  40  20  10
Dryden                         73  95  71  96 /  30  20   0  10
Fort Stockton                  71  92  68  95 /  30  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 65  82  64  86 /  40  50  30  20
Hobbs                          67  86  68  91 /  50  40  10  10
Marfa                          66  81  61  84 /  40  50  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           69  92  71  95 /  50  30  10  10
Odessa                         69  92  72  94 /  50  30  10  10
Wink                           70  94  70  97 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/44

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