Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 201730

1130 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014



VFR. Surface trough over the area will result in a W to SW wind
for local TAF sites.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014/

The warming trend will continue today as zonal flow aloft
continues above a surface lee trough. Under mostly sunny skies
temperatures will climb several degrees above normal. A quiet
night is expected tonight with the zonal flow and surface lee
trough continuing with temperatures dropping to near normal values
under clear to partly cloudy skies. The flow aloft is expected to
turn southwesterly Friday ahead of a potent southern stream storm
system approaching from the desert southwest. Temperatures will
continue several degrees above normal with surface low pressure
developing over the area and Gulf moisture continuing to

The aforementioned potent southern stream system will approach
the forecast area Friday night and Saturday allowing an anomalous
late season increase in low level moisture from the western Gulf
of Mexico, Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence
associated with the upper system should act on a unstable
atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing
eastward moving cold front. Some of these storms will be strong to
possibly severe in the eastern Permian Basin given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg and strong shear expected.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Wednesday with below normal temperatures
expected next Monday through Wednesday. The strong mid level flow
will be capable of producing strong winds in the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains Monday through Tuesday. Later shifts will need to

More cold air could spill back into the area by Thanksgiving.





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