Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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893
FXUS64 KMAF 191658
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1058 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Quiescent and dry conditions will prevail the next couple of days as
the flow aloft over the region becomes more zonal, and the cold
airmass over the area exits eastward under this regime.  Think the
gradual warmup will continue today, but be tempered somewhat by an
increase in high clouds.  However on Thursday, less cloud cover will
conspire with a developing surface trough developing south into the
area to vault temperatures a few degrees above normal, so have
tended readings toward the warmer guidance.  A weak cold front could
ease southward into the area Thursday night/Friday as a shortwave
trough approaches from the west, but think increasing cloud cover
will have more of an effect on high temps Friday afternoon than the
front.  Regardless of whether the front enters the forecast area or
not, it appears low level moisture will begin to increase over the
area Friday and Friday night.

As the aforementioned upper trough moves over the region Friday
night, expect convection to break out, but mainly over the
northeastern half or so of the forecast area.  Instability will be
limited, but still think there could be a few storms capable of
producing hail as mid level lapse rates will be 7.5 to 8 C/Km.
Therefore, will continue to mention gusty winds, hail and frequent
lightning strikes in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.  Precipitation
should shift east of the region Saturday morning, but will keep
chance PoPs going Saturday morning over extreme eastern portions of
the Permian Basin.

Temperatures will be a little milder than normal on Saturday and
Sunday morning, while high temperatures will be seasonal.  That is,
until another cold front moves through the area Sunday night
Monday.  Expect temperatures to remain a little below normal through
mid next week.  Rain chance will be negligible through the extended
forecast after Saturday morning.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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