Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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376
FXUS64 KMAF 150908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CDT Fri May 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level storm system along the west coast is expected to move
eastward today to the four corners region by Saturday morning. Another
lead shortwave is forecast to move into southeast New Mexico and
west Texas after dark tonight ahead of the system. While there could
be some isolated showers and thunderstorms along the surface trough/dry
line today in the eastern Permian Basin, expecting the bulk of the
thunderstorm activity to develop this evening across southeast New
Mexico along the retreating surface trough/dryline near the shortwave.
This activity should be able to survive and continue eastward
overnight into the Permian Basin and western Low Rolling plains
due to a 40 knot 850 millibar jet developing. Some of the storms
should be strong and perhaps severe especially across the northern
Permian Basin given a cape forecast of 1000 to 2500 j/kg and 0-6
kilometer shear values of 35 to 50 knots.

The Pacific storm system is progged to pass across the plains
states Saturday and Sunday. The flow aloft is forecast to increase
(especially Saturday) and become more zonal as a result. The
increase in the winds aloft may result in strong winds across
the Guadalupe Mountains Saturday and a High Wind Watch has been
issued for that area. It will become breezy to windy also Saturday
behind the dryline across the southeast New Mexico Plains, and
much of west Texas. A Wind Advisory may eventually be need for
some of these areas for Saturday. In addition thunderstorms can
not be ruled out across the extreme eastern Permian Basin both
days near the dryline.

Thunderstorm chances will continue every day next week due to an
endless series of Pacific storm systems stalling out across
the Rockies and interacting with a moist unstable airmass across
west Texas and southeast New Mexico. In addition some of the
medium range guidance is suggesting the possibility of occasional
heavy rain and flash flooding possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  63  81  52  /  10  50  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              85  68  86  57  /  10  50  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  57  80  48  /  10  30  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  89  67  91  64  /  10  20  10  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  64  88  56  /  10  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  54  69  48  /  10  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   81  60  79  48  /  10  50  10  10
MARFA TX                   81  53  81  45  /  10  20  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  66  85  55  /  10  40  10  10
ODESSA TX                  85  67  84  56  /  10  40  10  10
WINK TX                    87  63  88  55  /  10  40  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10/12

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