Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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361
FXUS64 KMAF 260920
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
420 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE TODAY, WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEPENING
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE GULF COAST.
THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
WEST OF THE REGION, YIELDING OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TODAY WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE SUMMER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS, ESPECIALLY AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL, A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S
HIGHS, TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU, WHERE
COMPARATIVELY COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.

WHILE THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL REPEAT OF THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS /CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ADJACENT PLAINS/, A TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND SERVE TO EXPAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AREA-WIDE, AS WELL AS DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. DUE
TO THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE REGION AS OF LATE,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES WOULD LEND TO A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND POSITIONING
OF THE FRONT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS EACH
DAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.  THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF SHEAR EXPECTED, THUS THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN
MARGINAL, THOUGH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD POSE A LOCALIZED FLOOD
THREAT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND HEAVILY UPON THE TIMING OF ANY WAVES IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS THE LOCATION OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES. THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BEYOND TUESDAY, A DRYING TREND LOOKS TO GET UNDERWAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FROM THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  96  72  89  69  /  10  30  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                    98  71  90  69  /  40  40  40  30
DRYDEN TX                      97  74  95  73  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               96  71  91  69  /  20  20  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              90  67  81  64  /  40  40  40  20
HOBBS NM                       94  68  85  66  /  30  40  40  30
MARFA TX                       88  61  87  62  /  40  30  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        97  71  90  69  /  20  30  40  20
ODESSA TX                      96  71  89  68  /  20  30  40  20
WINK TX                       100  72  93  71  /  20  30  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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