Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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505
FXUS64 KMAF 211044
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
544 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN FOG WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST
TERMINALS THIS MORNING, AND PERHAPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN
INCREASES OVER THE REGION.  IFR CEILINGS COULD ALSO FORM, BUT HOW
WIDESPREAD THESE BECOME REMAINS TO BE SEEN.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.  THINK
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS TAKING
OVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT KMAF.  CLOUD COVER TONIGHT MAY
PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD/DENSE.  BUT IF SKIES CLEAR, FOG
SHOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER A LIGHT WIND REGIME OVER VERY MOIST
GROUND.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015/

..Heavy rain and potential flooding still on track today for
southern half of the area...

The upper level low spinning to our west is finally beginning to
lift northeast. Strong lift and rich moisture continues to
overspread the region as evidenced by the widespread showers
occurring across the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos. An upward
trend in precipitation is expected later this morning as a train
of disturbances move north across the area. WV imagery depicts
the next, main disturbance moving across N. Mexico toward W TX.
Heavy rain and flooding will remain the main concern today as PWAT
values near record highs for March. An upper level jet passing
just to our east will also place the area in decent diffluence
aloft. The heaviest rain is expected to fall across the Big Bend,
Lower Trans Pecos, and Permian Basin today. Much of this area
received near 1 inch of rain yesterday and widespread additional
rainfall totals of around an inch with locally 2 inches will be
possible. Current Flash Flood Watch looks good so no changes are
planned there.

The upper trough opens up and quickly exits the area tonight with
weak upper ridging building in Sunday and Monday. This along with
westerly winds should help dry things out. Temperatures are also
expected to rebound to above normal values early next week.
Guidance looks a little too warm for southern portions of the
region given all the recent rains so will undercut temps there
early in the week. Fire weather may become a concern Monday
afternoon if winds are strong enough along a sfc trough that will
stretch across the area. Warm temperatures will continue Tuesday
and Wednesday while winds relax a bit ahead of another cold front
due to arrive Wednesday night. Temperatures will cool to near
seasonal norms with minimal precip chances late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 55  45  76  46  /  80  30  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              59  47  79  49  /  90  40  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                57  43  79  46  /  70  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  50  80  53  / 100  40   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  47  76  50  / 100  40  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  45  72  51  /  70  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   57  42  77  44  /  60  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   55  39  73  39  / 100  30  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  46  75  47  / 100  40  10   0
ODESSA TX                  54  46  75  47  / 100  30  10   0
WINK TX                    56  43  76  45  / 100  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Ector...Glasscock...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Midland...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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