Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 152351

551 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014


Please see the latest aviation discussion below.



A complex forecast this TAF period. Wind gusts will diminish
this evening ahead of a cold front, which will move across the
area late tonight/early Sunday, impacting SE New Mexico TAF sites
around 10Z and reaching KFST by around 15Z. Gusty north winds are
expected in the wake of the front, with ceilings decreasing to
low-end MVFR across much of the area, lagging the front by a few
hours. A disturbance moving through the region Sunday could
generate some -RA/-SN over the northern half of the area, thus
have introduced mention for KHOB and KCNM where confidence is
greatest for this to occur. Otherwise, expect north winds and low
ceilings to persist through the period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2014/

Temperatures have been much warmer today than seen recently, but
the pleasant weather will be short lived as another strong cold
front moves through the area tomorrow morning. There will be more
moisture associated with this front so there will be a chance for
wintry precipitation. Looking at vertical profiles for tomorrow,
it appears most of the moisture will be concentrated below 700mb,
with limited moisture above. This shallow moisture combined with
temperatures in dendritic growth zone of -5 to -8C are not
conducive for much accumulating snow. Additionally most of the
lift associated with precip generation will be weak along the
elevated front favoring mostly flurry type snow fall tomorrow with
some accumulations up to an inch from northern Lea County across
the extreme northern Permian Basin. There will be an elevated warm
layer above freezing, but it will be located above where most
precip generation will occur. Therefore the main precip type will
be snow where surface temperatures are cold enough and rain where
the surface warm layer remains. Do not anticipate much if any
sleet or freezing rain. Any precip will shift south along with the
leading edge of the surface front and will become all snow Sunday
night. Orographic lift may also allow for some light snow in the
Davis and Guadalupe Mountains though the elevated warm layer will
limit amounts.

Winds at Guadalupe Pass today have been near high wind criteria
but will handle this with social media posts as it is too
localized and marginal for a warning. The same holds for tomorrow
when an east gap wind will develop at GDP with sustained northeast
winds approaching 35kts, but again it appears too marginal and
brief to issue a watch or warning at this time. The surface high
settles in Monday but clearing skies will allow for some warming.
A transition to zonal upper flow will continue the warming trend
through the remainder of the week.







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