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FXUS64 KMAF 181713
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING IN
STRENGTH THIS EVENING. MOSTLY WEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT
WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BE DISPLACED TODAY BY AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY AND PASSING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MAF HIT A DAILY RECORD HIGH YESTERDAY AT 103 DEGREES WITH A 40
DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIR. AS SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH IS A WARM PATTERN. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO FALL OFF THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HOT TEMPERATURES
TODAY... MAY TIE A RECORD HIGH AT MAF AGAIN TODAY... BUT SHOULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT MID 90S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE EASTERN CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
ISOLD POPS IN THE FAR EAST TODAY AS COULD BE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE
OF RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE REMAINS OF PACIFIC STORM ALVIN MOVE UP ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
QPF DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER SEVERAL DAYS... WILL START WITH INTRODUCING
LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND GO FROM THERE.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWFA...SE
NM...UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND NRN PB. 25KT WINDS AT AROUND 5KFT WILL
COME OUT ACROSS THE DESCRIBED AREA AND WITH THE BETTER MSLP GRADIENT
ACROSS SE NM/NRN PB SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND 20-30 MPH MTNS...MAINLY AFTER 3 PM AND UNTIL AROUND 8
PM...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WHILE FUEL DRYNESS MAPS SUPPORT DRY TO VERY DRY
FUELS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN A DRY/UNSTABLE STATE AS SEEN BY
DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS AND HAINES INDICES OF 5 TO 6. SINGLE DIGIT RH/S
WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BRIEF RF WX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA AREA
ESPECIALLY IF MSLP GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER FARTHER S.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
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