Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Skip product version selection by date and time.   
530
FXUS64 KMAF 262245
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
545 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough over SE NM, while a sfc trough
centered near KOZA is resulting in strong westerly flow
w/afternoon mixing. To the north, a cold front is working south
thru the Texas Panhandle, and is expected to veer sfc flow to NW
as it moves into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Monday
morning. Forecast soundings develop a stratus deck w/fropa, and
suggest a few hrs of IFR cigs at KHOB, and brief MVFR at
KCNM/KMAF. All other terminals should remain VFR. Post-frontal
flow should be strong and gusty as sfc pressure grads are forecast
to be tight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low moving across Southern New Mexico today will push
across the area this afternoon and Monday.  This low will bring
windy conditions and maybe a few storms to the CWA.  An upper ridge
begins to build in behind the low on Tuesday with warming
temperatures through the end of the week.

The low will push a Pacific front through the area today with a
W/SW wind sweeping across the area.  Strong wind aloft mixing down
to the surface and a tight pressure gradient... will continue the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Davis will produce windy
conditions.  Will continue the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains and Wind Advisory for the adjacent plains.
However on Monday a Polar front will move down across the region with
colder air and a gusty north wind behind it.  Could briefly see high
wind conditions through GDP again Monday but direction may not be
the best for a channeled wind through the pass so will not issue a
watch at this time.

Thunderstorms developed before noon over Central TX and back over
SW NM closer to the low.  Most of the storms this afternoon and
evening will be east of the area but some may clip the northern
CWA.  Currently dryline pushing to eastern edge of the area but some
storms possible behind it as low moves across.  Will carry a slight
chance across Northern Lea county and the NE Permian Basin... with
isolated pops across much of the rest of the area.  Any storm that
develops could be strong with a few possible severe mainly in the
east.  Monday and Monday night look to have a better chance of
storms/showers along and behind the front but mainly for the
Northern Permian Basin.  Could be some lingering showers NE on
Tuesday.  After that not expecting much chance of precip the rest of
the week.

Temperatures tongiht will have lows in the 40s and 50s with highs in
the 60s and 70s Monday.  On Tuesday most locations will have highs
in the 60s with post frontal conditions.  Latest guidance colder than
previous runs.  If this trend continues then highs Tuesday may end
up being in the 60s for most of the region... could even approach
record min max temps.  Will continue to see lows in the 30s at MRF
each night.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement for southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas through early this evening. West to southwest
winds are expected to increase to 20 to 35 mph and gusty in the
plains late this afternoon with higher amounts in the Mountains.
Rh/s have already dropped into the 10 to 20 percent range but should
bottom shortly due to an advancing cold front and increased cloud
cover. Since the strongest winds will occur after RH/s bottom out,
and fuels are still moist am not expecting an upgrade to a Red Flag
Warning at this time. In addition There may also be a few dry lightning
strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this afternoon which
would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front but 20 foot winds are not expected to be strong enough in
these areas for critical fire weather conditions. It will become windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

44

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.