481
FXUS64 KMAF 252255
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH NIGHTFALL. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY EVEN MOVE EAST THROUGH KCNM AND KHOB...IF NOT KPEQ
AND KINK. SINCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MORE PRONOUNCED FURTHER
NORTH SO FAR...AND THESE AREAS APPEAR TO HAVE MORE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL INCLUDE TEMPORARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT KCNM AND
KHOB. ASIDE FROM MVFR CEILINGS AFFECTING KMAF IN THE 26/11 TO
26/15Z TIMEFRAME...THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 119 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
WITH MORE EXPECTED DOWN INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
INTENSIFYING INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A CAP IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE MAY
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ERODE THE
CAP BUT NOT MUCH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THERE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRY DUE TO WEAK UPPER
RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS BOTH DAYS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS PERHAPS
DEVELOPING IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OR ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS MOVING OUT OF CALIFORNIA BACKING
UPPER WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE
FURTHER WEST. WEAK DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAY GET THE
DRYLINE ACTIVE AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THEM IN THE EAST FOR NOW BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA. LOWERING
HEIGHTS WILL ALSO HELP HIGH TEMPS DROP TO NEAR NORMAL.
THE TROUGH PASSES THURSDAY AND ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN WILL BRING A
RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
HENNIG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 67 95 68 97 / 10 10 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 68 93 69 95 / 10 10 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 66 99 65 100 / 20 0 10 10
DRYDEN TX 69 93 69 94 / 20 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 68 96 70 98 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 88 62 91 / 20 0 10 10
HOBBS NM 64 97 65 97 / 20 10 10 10
MARFA TX 60 90 61 92 / 20 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 68 94 69 96 / 10 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 68 94 69 97 / 10 10 10 10
WINK TX 68 99 70 102 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12/10
